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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/5/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon folks, and welcome to my first chat of this sweltering (in Brooklyn where it's 92 degrees) September!
2:03
Hope you all had nice long weekends. Just before the weekend I did this about Tony Gonsolin's Tommy John surgery, a now-outdated snapshot of the Dodgers' rotation (ugh) and a look at TJS trends in general https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tony-gonsolin-and-recent-tommy-john-surger...
I'm working on something on Royce Lewis for tomorrow.
KC Pain
2:03
Better Star Wars name, Cal Quantrill or Akil Baddoo?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:04
Baddoo is a name that seems seems straight out of Phantom Menace, though I'd also believe that Quantrill flew alongside Luke Skywalker in A New Hope and/or Empire Strikes Back.
v2micca
2:04
Even three years in, I really dislike the extra innings ghost-runner rule.  Which is more likely, the rule is eventually applied to post season play, or the rule is removed from regular season play.  (Yes, I know there is a third option but I want to know which you think is more likely of the first two)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
I'd say more likely to be applied to postseason play BUT I very, very much doubt that will happen. The move to do so in regular season just makes life simpler for teams (and players), and they tend to like it because it gets them home earlier, but I don't see anybody hungering to have a playoff game decided that way.
Clara
2:06
How do teams decide if small sample later career breakouts like DJ Stewart's have any possibility of being real going forward?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
The underlying metrics are part of it — does this guy's batted ball stats and other peripherals support the top-line numbers? Understanding why a player is getting those kind of results is important, too, and it's likely the piece of information the public doesn't have. What changed for him? Was it a new approach, a mechanical adjustment, better health? Those factors are all ones that a team wants to know when considering how much to trust a smaller sample.
Clara
2:08
I'd like to know how in the world Cole Ragans has been so good since being traded, and if we should expect him to stay this good going forward
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
Three chats in a row, somebody has asked when we'd cover Cole Ragans, and today, folks, that day is here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cole-train-has-taken-kansas-city-by-st...
2:10
That's Esteban Rivera writing that one. Also, old friend Eno Sarris wrote about him last week. Short version seems to be new pitch mix (including the addition of a slider) and better conditioning and flexibility https://theathletic.com/4822997/2023/09/01/royals-cole-ragans-101-mph-...
Gold Star for Robot Boy
2:11
Last week, I asked you about what the Dodgers do for a rotation in 2024. Welp, in the light of breaking news, what does the team do for a postseason rotation in 2023?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
Man, who the hell knows? I think in all likelihood Urías has thrown his last pitch as a Dodger — the administrative leave alone might prevent him from taking the field again this season, and if he's found to have violated the policy, as a second-time offender I suspect he will be in for a bigger penalty. It probably depends upon whom they face but I'd expect Kershaw, Lynn and Miller to start, with either Pepiot or Yarbrough (or possibly both) taking the bulk of a fourth game, possibly with an opener.
2:14
What an utterly disappointing turn of events regarding a promising pitcher. I hope Urías wife and family are okay.
mac
2:14
jasson dominguez is on pace for 769 home runs in the first 5000 PAs of his career. does he go into the hall first-ballot
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
LOL. He's certainly off to a promising start. I'll check in on the remade Yankees at some point in the next couple of weeks, but will note for now that I did find myself watching their Houston series where I had basically ignored the team for weeks because they no longer figure in a playoff hunt.
Wes
2:16
Who (outside of Mookie Betts) did the best job of solidifying his Hall of Fame case?  Who, if anyone, hurt his chances this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
Ohtani reaching 10 bWAR is big. Marcus Semien, Freddie Freeman, and Francisco Lindor have also made substantial gains.
2:20
Of the guys who hurt their chances, Josh Donaldson was already in grave danger of missing out and his Hall chances are now effectively DOA despite a 41.7 WAR peak score. Carlos Correa's down season doesn't bode well.
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:21
Was perusing B-Ref's year-by-year league averages. Runs/game up to 4.62 (roughly mid to late 2000s), SB/game at 0.71 (roughly mid-late 90s), SO/game 8.59 (still nearly an all time high, but lower than 2019 levels). All this to say - are you as a fan happy with the current run environment?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
The scoring level is about right - 4.5 runs per team per game is about what I like. I could stand to see fewer strikeouts though
Adley Rutschman
2:22
Do you think the O's eventually pay any of Gunnar, Grayson, or me at some point? Or are we all destined for new teams when we're FA's?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
Based on what John Angelos has said in recent weeks, I'm skeptical, but at the same time what he said was so nonsensical i'm not sure anyone should pay attention to that idiotic failson.
bringbackpologrounds
2:24
I enjoyed reading Michael Baumann's article on batting average last week. I found that only 6 active hitters have a career average above .300 (Arraez, Altuve, Cabrera, Freeman, Bichette, and Trout). This may be more of a Dan question, but how many active players will finish their career over .300? There have been lots of dropouts in recent years (Pujols, Votto, LeMahieu, Betts, McNeil, and Blackmon).
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
The magic career total ZiPS sheet I got from Dan this past winter has exactly one (1) active player projected to finish at 300 or above and it's the guy who shouldn't be playing at all and who's four weeks from the finish line: Miguel Cabrera (.307). Now, that's hardly the whole story, and you'd need Dan to tell you that, say, Arraez or [pick any player] has a 43% chance of finishing his career at .300 or above, and that the expected yield from today's active players is 3.8 or something
Nate
2:28
Could Cody Bellinger still make a HOF run?  Or has his awful 2020-2022 run doomed his chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:30
I wouldn't count him out entirely because he's checked a few important boxes — MVP season, WAR lead, Gold Glove, championship — but 2019 is his only season worth 5.0 WAR or more out of seven. He's demonstrated the skills to reach that level before but can he maintain or restore them? Odds are against.
Adley Is Daddy
2:30
Why do rebuilding teams always seem to get going and become playoff-caliber earlier than expected (see Cubs, Astros, Orioles this year)? And what would you say is the Orioles' prime 2-year World Series window, knowing their roster and hoarding of AAA Top 100 prospects?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
It's important to remember that rebuilds are tough to predict, and that not every one of them pans out (hello, Tigers). Hell, if it's so hard to foresee a collection of talent like the 2023 Padres turn into a sub-.500 disappointment, how can we be expected to know how well half a dozen key prospects will line up in terms of progress? I think it's important to remember that a lot of the issue has to do with things beyond a team's control — what's the competition doing? In the Orioles' case, that means the Yankees stumbling into a worst-in-a-long-time season, and the Red Sox, um, doing whatever the hell it is they're doing; both of those things have helped Baltimore's cause. If they're going to be a World Series contender with this core, I'd imagine it's the next couple of years where that happens, before Angelos decides to Not Pay Rutschman or whatever.
Casey
2:35
Mets fan here.  (Sigh.)  What are your projections for the Mets-related candidates on this year's ballot?  I'm betting Wagner goes in and Beltran makes a big jump forward after so many writers seemed inclined to give him a one-year punishment.  Other than that, I see Wright cracking double digits, Bartolo living to fight another day, and Reyes being a one-and-done.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
I think Wagner has a real shot but with Beltré and Mauer hitting the ballot and with Helton closer to the finish line I don't know that there's room for four honorees. I do expect Beltrán to improve but he won't get in this year. Wright won't reach double digits and may go one-and-done. I would expect Bartolo will as well.
YorDaddy
2:37
Who will be the next non-Shohei HOFer out of Asia?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
Ichiro will go in first-ballot in 2025. Beyond him and Ohtani, there's nobody who's likely at all. Darvish won't get there, alas.
Justin
2:38
Jay, I'm wondering if you can point me to one of your articles that goes into detail re: HOFers by decade of MLB debut. I think you've talked about it a lot, but I have been having trouble finding one of those articles. Thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
I don't recall specifically addressing year of debut, but I do track year (or at least decade) of birth and player-team-season concentrations. See here (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-some-insights-from-th...) and here (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-insights-from-the-spr...) for starters
Tim
2:41
Is there a reason Fangraphs has adopted OAA for defense but still uses UBR rather than the baseball savant baserunning metric? UBR leaves out a lot of relevant information that is factored into Runner Runs.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
OAA is only part of the fielding calculation; we use it for the range component of UZR in calculating WAR. See https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-war-fielding-update/

As for UBR, it only covers non-stolen base baserunning, and we use weighted Stolen Base (wSB) and weighted Ground into Double Play (wGDP) as well as UBR in cacluating Baserunning Runs (BRR), which is what gets used in WAR https://library.fangraphs.com/war/war-position-players/
At some point I imagine we'll consider swapping components out for Statcast versions, but it's not a discussion I've been part of thus far.
Izzy
2:45
Is Justin Steele an ace? I'm not talking record and ERA... is he an actual ace or do the Cubs still need to find one? I definitely think they need at least another #2 type.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
I don't consider Steele dominant enough to be a true ace — he doesn't strike out enough hitters, and he's got A LOT of unearned runs that aren't included in that ERA  – but he's a fine pitcher who's right in the thick of the NL Cy Young race. IMO, the Cubs definitely need another frontliner if they're going to be real contenders.
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