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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/5/23
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Retired WFT Fan
2:49
Do you have any recommendations for someone looking to dip their feet into baseball writing? How much R or Python does a Jay Jaffe or Ben Clemens need to know?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
I don't know any R or Python at all, but my skill set and career should hardly serve as a roadmap for somebody who aspires to write about baseball. You're much better off learning that stuff as well as taking writing courses focused upon helping you write better (something I have done).
v2micca
2:51
Speculation is that Ohtani wants to stay on the West Coast, but he also wants to play for a contender.  If we accept this as fact, how much has Seattle increased their odds to land him with their recent play?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
I think they have a reasonable shot at signing him and that the West Coast factor is very real. Certainly doesn't hurt their cause that they're gunning for a playoff spot again.
Yoshida's Island
2:52
Walker Buehler is being stretched out to start in the minors
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
Saw that, and should have mentioned it above in my Dodgers answer but... boy, I do not like this.

To be clear, I love what Buehler brings to the mound but I don't like how quickly he's returning from his second TJ — it's an interval that's not far off the short end of returns from a first TJ. The industry has generally gone 16-18ish months for 2nd TJs and he's coming back in 13.
Nate
2:54
How much do awards (or top 3 / 5/ etc. finishes) factor into your HOF decision making process?  It's easy to see some bad voting in hindsight, but does how the player was perceived at the time matter much to you?  (As an aside, I was looking at Larry Walker's BR page and saw that he went .350/.449/.662 with 7.8 WAR in 2001 and got only one 10th place vote).
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
It's certainly something to note, both in terms of understanding the way a player was regarded in his time and the way he might be considered now that we have so much more information. Knowing that in a more WAR-centric age Chase Utley might have fared better in the MVP votes that teammates Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard won, that's something I'll be bringing up in his profile, for example.
Dan the Man McGRAWWWW
2:56
Are the Red Sox happy with their investment in Yoshida?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
You'd have to ask them, but I see Yoshida's offense (119 wRC+) as satisfactory while noting that his overall value is being undercut by his defense, which admittedly is sometimes hard to get a read on when we're talking about one year in front of the Green Monster. The metrics don't like what he's doing but it's tough to evaluate.
Kevin
2:57
Greinke isn't going to get to 3000 this year...does he try to come back in 2024, and would the Royals (or anyone else) sign him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
I suspect that he comes back and probably to KC to get those final strikeouts (he's at 2,962) but it wouldn't surprise me if they're his only suitor, or if he walks away just shy of 3,000. Zack Gonna Zack.
CorbinBurnesTruther
2:59
What on earth is wrong with Corbin Burnes? Is he no longer a superstar?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
he's not throwing quite as hard as before; his average cutter velocity is down about one mile per hour from 2021 and is getting less cut. Some of his other pitches are down 1.5 mph. Whether it's injury/wear or self-preservation, I don't know, but he's merely a good pitcher and not a great one these days.
Wireless Joe Jackson
3:02
Royce Lewis has been possessed by the spirit of 1998 Shane Spencer.  How many more grand slams will he hit this week?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
2.7
Wireless Joe Jackson
3:02
I don't necessarily hate position players pitching, but Cleveland put one in in the sixth inning and I can now say I hate that.  Should there be some guardrails here?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
The guardrail is the score margin, and it was just adjusted this year to where a team can only use a position player when down eight or more, or up 10 or more. Both were changed from  being up or down at least six runs, a rule that was only enforced last year after being waived in 2020 and '21.
Idiotic Failsons
3:05
Thanks for the new band name.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
you're welcome.

Came up with a doozy this weekend in describing my daughter and my wife's bestie's two kids, one older and one younger. We went to a beach and the three of them spent a lot of time killing the spotted lantern flies that are infesting the area. Spotted Lantern Fly Death Squad's new EP drops next month.
PhilsPhan
3:06
Jay- I have doubts about Joey Votto and Z Grienke being definite hall of famers. The WAR is close to enough, but the career drop offs for both is pretty atrocious and in the case of Grienke I’m not sure peak was enough … am I wrong ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
You're wrong.
The career dropoffs are hardly atypical — this isn't Andruw Jones fading at 30.
3:09
Greinke had a Cy Young-winning season and a second that could easily have been one. It's easy to forget that he also added a bit of extra value with his offense, since no pitchers will get to do so going forward. His peak score is a little top-heavy but his 200+ wins, 3000-ish strikeouts, 121 ERA+, etc make him a lock.
John Olerud’s Helmet
3:10
Hello Mr Jay!! Do we ever see the day a middle reliever gets inducted into the HOF? I’m thinking along the lines of a David Robertson type, someone who wasn’t always a traditional closer but was a dominant arm out of the pen
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
I doubt it. It's hard enough getting elite closers into the Hall, and when you remove the saves, All-Star appearances, and occasional dent in awards voting, there's just not much to go by for a non-closer.

Wrote about Robertson here, not that I went into a ton of detail https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep...
Smiling Politely
3:12
hypothetically, if Corey Seager plays another 700 games in 7 yrs in his career (maybe the last 100 at DH), but finishes his career 290/355/500, is he a HoFer? I can't think of another batter who's as good as he is when healthy but rarely is (Josh Hamilton, sorta, albeit for diff reasons). He
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
No, because he really needs to get to 2,000 hits to have a real shot, and he's six shy of 1,000
Seager is on my docket as a player to write about soon.
Awards voter #12
3:13
Who do I vote for NL Cy Young and NL MVP? NL Cy Young could go different ways depending on what you value and NL MVP just seems really close.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
This is one I want to take a closer look at because with four weeks to go there's no clear-cut favorite, and I think somebody needs to step up in September. Strider, Steele, Snell, Gallen, even Wheeler (leads all pitchers in fWAR) — seems like every metric gives a different pecking order and it's tough to sift through them all.
Bo Bichette
3:15
How am I not on the Star Wars name list?  Still bounty hunting in the off season.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
Boba Chette, nephew of Boba Fett
Farhandrew Zaidman
3:16
For the record on Buehler, the explicit goal is to stretch him to 3-4 innings, not as a traditional starter.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
I know, and i'm just as worried about him dialing it up to 97-98 as i am regarding his pitch counts.
Andrew
3:17
Hi Jay, thanks for the chat. Have you ever looked at enshrined HOFers to see when, on aggregate, their peak 7 years occurred? Wondering what that distribution looks like (do most peak 7 seasons occur before a player is 28 years old? 30 years old? etc.).
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
Ooh, that's a good question. Remember, it's not seven consecutive years but best seven at large. I would need some help with this one but it's something to look into.
Boba
3:18
What do you think of the HOF's revamped Era Committees?  Are you a fan?  Which executives do you think will be on this year's ballot, and who do you think will make it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:20
Glad that Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball candidates are being considered more than once every 10 years and that managers/umps/execs have a separate track in the post-1980 era but..

I don't like the reduction in the number of committees, the number of candidates, or the ossification of the Historical Overview Committee that makes the ballots (generally full of BBWAA elders who bypassed those players the first time around).
KC Pain
3:20
Has there been a better career that limped to the HOF more than Miguel Cabrera?  The loss of power sure, but the BA, just all around seems sad. It feels like forever ago he was a stud and yet his overall numbers still are shiny.
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