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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/6/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Good afternoon, party people of the internets, and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat. Lunch is ordered (grilled chicken banh mi from Hanco's), my piece on Luke Voit is almost ready to be published, and I'm indoors avoiding gross, swamplike weather (88 degrees, feels like 97 thanks to the humidity). Let's hunker down.
James
12:02
Who leads the Astros in WAR over the next 3 seasons?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:03
I think Alex Bregman is making the case that it's him and not Carlos Correa. Considering his advantage in remaining on the field where his shortstop teammate has been less fortunate, that seems like a reasonable answer
stever20
12:04
Kluber now with a crazy 47 inning lead on Sale.   When does it get to be that much for Sale to overcome?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
that's a good question. Planning a look at this soon, actually.
Josh Donaldson
12:05
Over/under 25 plate appearances for me before the postseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
I'll take the over but I think it's gonna be 50-60ish before the postseason.
Dexy's Midnight Fowlers
12:05
For some reason, Luke Voit reminds me of Steve Holt from Arrested Development. LUKE VOIT!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:07
I did the STEVE HOLT gesture after a Voit home run, but only our dog saw it, and she was startled. Voit does seem to have a similarly amiable temperament to young Mr. Holt.

on the subject, here's my Voit thing for today, salvaged from the wreckage of a mistake that you can read about within.  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/luke-voit-has-been-the-best-hitter-of-...
Dexy's Midnight Fowlers
12:07
Is the Bird no longer the word? Voit seems to have overtaken him on both sides of the 1B platoon.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
I know the Yankees like his work ethic, but I get the sense that Bird is pretty lost right now. The results certaainly haven't been there. Voit's 0.7 WAR post-trade is 1.4 more than Bird's in that span, and Aaron Boone seems happy enough to ride the hot hand.
That said, i don't think the Yankees are ready to give up on Bird long-term. I think everybody would like to see what a full, healthy season from him looks like.
Scott
12:09
After Rivera gets into the Hall, how long will it before another gets elected by the writers? Nathan and Papelbon are the next who may get on the ballot, but neither seems likely.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
I suspect Lee Smith will get in via the Modern Baseball Era Committee sooner or later, but that's not exactly your question. While I retain some hope regarding Billy Wagner via that route as well, writer-wise I think it's basically a waiting game to see whether Craig Kimbrel and/or Kenley Jansen maintain (recover) their dominance and show enough longevity. If not them, it's gonna be a long time.
Bork
12:12
Let's say you hit a homerun off Doolittle, what do you do?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:14
presumably referring to this https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/dc-sports-bog/wp/2018/09/05/sean-d...

If I were to get lucky enough to homer, I think I would cartwheel down the first base line, though I'm not 100% sure my surgically repaired right shoulder (labrum SLAP tear, 2003) would hold up. I would also tip my cap to Doolittle as a gesture of respect. By all accounts, he's an even better human being than a player, and he's a pretty damn good player when healthy.
Ohtani's Elbow
12:15
Why would LAA want, or let Ohtani pitch this season after the elbow injury? Is there ANY reasoning behind this?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
The Angels had almost nothing to lose by testing Ohtani's elbow. If he has the surgery now, there's a reasonable shot he can still DH for most/all of next season while not pitching, but if they waited until spring for the surgery, he'd be unable to do either.

Jeff Fletcher, who covers the Angels for the Orange County Register, put it well in a tweet:

"If Ohtani had TJ surgery on June 7, 2018 -- the day the sprain was discovered -- he'd be out till 2020.

"If he has it tomorrow, he'll be out till 2020.

"If he has it a week from now, he'll be out till 2020."
John
12:19
The Angels 2019 rotation is almost entirely up in the air. Do you think they will be big FA players for starters?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
If they have hopes of contending, they would have to be, right? I was just asked about this on the air for a Toronto radio station (after we discussed Ohtani). The more I think about it, the more I believe that the Angels are going to have to reckon with the possibility of a rebuilding situation sooner or later, one that would involve the future whereabouts of Mike Trout.
stever20
12:21
How much trouble do you think the Dodgers are in?  If they lose this weekend 2 of 3 games, they would leave Colorado down 2.5 to the Rockies with 19 to go(and maybe down 4 to the Cards for the Wild Card).  If Colorado goes 10-10 after that, LA would need to finish at 13-6 to just beat Colorado by 1 game.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
The Dodgers are not in great shape, but so long as they have the vast majority of their players healthy and available, 13-6  — or just about any strong stretch — is in play, because they have the most talent of any team in the division. They do have to play up to that level, though
Dustin H
12:24
Looking at the Cubs page, they could have 11 position players end the year with 1.5 WAR or more. When was the last time a national league team did that (Or an AL team had 12)? Or how would one run a search for that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
We don't have the maens of a user-accessible tool that would tell you that answer. Via the B-Ref Play Index, several teams have had 10 position players with 1.5 bWAR, but only two since the turn of the millennium, the 2001 Mariners, who won 116 games, and 2005 Tigers, who won 71 games. http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/ceN7o

By itself, that kind of spread is no guarantee of success, though it is interesting.
Jim Riggleman
12:27
Is Mason Williams anything more than a fourth outfielder?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
I don't honestly know, but that would be an improvement upon his lot. As a Yankees farmhand, he was a top 100 prospect in 2012-2013 via multiple outlets (and 2014 as well for MLB Pipeline), but he struggled in the upper levels of the minors and fell out of favor in part due to his work ethic (according to reports). I see he's showing some signs of life in Cincinnati (.293/ .330/.391 in 99 PA) but I think he's going to have to find some way to get on base with more consistency if he's going to stick in the majors. Guys with no power and 5% walk rates don't last long.
Tony Oliva
12:32
What else does Trevor Story need to do to be voted MVP this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
Right now he's one of 10 NL players with between 4.6 and 5.5 WAR . He's got power, but he's not as spectacular defensively as Nolan Arenado, who's right there with him (4.7 and 4.6), or somebody like Javy Baez or Lorenzo Cain (5.0 and 5.3 WAR, respectively), nor does he have the narrative oomph that Matt Carpenter (NL-high 5.5 WAR) does with his personal turnaround since mid-May and that of his team since mid-July.  My suggestion is to hit .450 the rest of the way while helping the Rockies make the playoffs. Short of that, i think he's got an uphill battle to stand out, for as strong as his season has been.
KD
12:37
As a thermodynamicist, I understand why you invoked the word "entropy" when discussing chaos and the Second Law.  But...others have tried to fight against this description.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
I was a biology major in college, and even got an A in second-semester organic chemistry, but other than obeying the laws of thermodynamics, I haven't done much with my degree in 26 years beyond coming up with "Team Entropy." I'll leave this fight to the PH.Ds
Craig
12:40
I'm pretty sure you Doolittle dance, Makelittle love, get down tonight.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
well played.
Rockie Dangerfield
12:40
Does Story now have a better MVP case than Arenado?  Nolan's looked awful for a while now, but their season lines are almost identical.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
I don't know that Story has a better case but he's coming off a big 3-homer night, and that's gotten people talking. If their trends are really that disparate — and I haven't checked — there's enough time remaining for their numbers to show some separation before the voters send off their envelopes.
John Kreese
12:42
The odds are low of this happening but what do the Dodgers do with Jansen if they play the Rockies in a playoff series?  Just rely on him for two innings or so in each home game?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
I honestly don't think anybody, including the Dodgers, knows the answer to this right now, but I do think the Dodgers will be very risk-averse when it comes to the health of Jansen (or any player), even if it lowers their odds of winning significantly.
Ben
12:44
Both fWAR and rWAR show Greinke ahead of Verlander in total WAR even though Verlander leads in pitching WAR. Will/should voters take Greinke’s better fielding, hitting, and baserunning into account when evaluating is HoF credentials?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
Sure, it's worth considering. For what it's worth, JAWS includes a pitcher's offensive WAR as well, and it can make a difference. red Ruffing (13.5) and Walter Johnson (12.7) are tops in this area, and Hall of Famers Bob Lemon (10.4) and Early Wynn (9.1) are sixth and seventh. http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/3TxtO
Who needs UCLs anyway?
12:48
Does Ohtani's injury partially solve part of the Angels' Pujols problem? Assuming everything goes well with the rehab, they could have him learn 1b and swap DHing duties with Pujols. Otherwise it's very hard to see where Pujols playing time comes from next season.
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