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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 9/6/18

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Jay Jaffe

12:50

It's even harder to see a justification for Pujols' playing time given his combined -1.4 WAR and 93 wRC+ over the past three seasons. It's a shame the extent to which memories of bad, late-career Albert Pujols are clouding our memory regarding the stud who dominated from 2001-2011. The moral of the story is don't get old.

Archimedes

12:52

Is the Tigers' broadcasting booth getting into a "physical altercation" the most exciting thing to happen to the team this year?

Jay Jaffe

12:54

Jeez. I heard about that this morning but there doesn't seem to be much in the way of details. While I wouldn't classify them as standout broadcasters, I've thought that they had good on-air chemistry, at least when the Tigers were in a phase where they were worth watching; I've had a fondness for Rod Allen since he played in Salt Lake City as a Mariners farmhand in the early 1980s. I imagine the grind of watching their current iteration would make anyone punchy, though, and perhaps exacerbate existing tensions.

Cave Dameron

12:55

Would you take for the next five seasons: Kris Bryant or Alex Bregman?

Jay Jaffe

12:56

I think the world of Bryant but right now I'd say Bregman, on the basis of him being two years younger (24 vs. 26) and healthy all season long.

stever20

12:56

But that 13-6 would include 4 in St Louis, and 3 in Arizona, along with 3 home vs Colorado. How realistic is that?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

Losing 2 out of 3 to the Mets, as the Dodgers just did, is gonna make anything they aspire to do look like an uphill climb, but we've seen that squad operate in steamroller mode before, albeit relatively less frequently this year. 2018 just may not be their season — we'll soon see.

Whitty

12:59

How do you feel about Giancarlo Stanton's HOF chances? 300 HR's and nearly 40 WAR before his age 30 season has to be putting him on the fast track.

Jay Jaffe

1:03

I like his chances so long as he stays healthy and above-average defensively. His 38.7 WAR through his age-28 season (if he stopped playing today instead of having another 3 1/2 weeks) ranks 34th among outfielders in history, and the guys above him that didn't make the Hall are ones with much less complete games (low AVG like Andruw, less power/more speed like Vada Pinson and Cesar Cedeno, more willingness to consort with gamblers like Shoeless Joe Jackson) than Stanton.

Sad Mr. Met

1:04

You coming around on Jeff mcneil, Jaffe?

Jay Jaffe

1:10

As a guy who can help the Mets? Sure. As the second coming of Murphy or Turner? Not unless he shows more power. That .345 BABIP is working extra hard alongside a 6% walk rate. The numbers at least suggest he's not an iron glove at second base, so yes, he looks like a guy to have around.

1:10

If they can't get Harper, how will the Giants be able to add power to their 2019 lineup?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

probably have to spring for a battery pack while also making sure to carry an extra USB charger

A cat

1:11

Will there be anymore long term, big $$ contracts for SPs anymore? Do the Price and Greinke contracts serve as a warning to investing in star pitchers over 30, or will pitch the bulk of the contract while over 30? Investing long term in Kershaw seems like a risk, Sale may be an injury concern and will need to be managed carefully.

Jay Jaffe

1:13

I think we'll continue to see big deals for aces, maybe not necessarily 7/$210M or their like but the top end is gonna get paid. Every team knows those contracts carry risk, but the question will always be how much risk an individual team will stomach.

Ian

1:14

Re: Cubs WAR spread... I did research on this and not only does it not help a team, but it’s a bad thing

Jay Jaffe

1:15

I can see where it might be a problem, in that you'd almost always rather have one guy at 6.0 instead of two guys at 3.0, and one guy at 3.0 (above average) than two at 1.5 (which could mean below-average regular or above-average part-timer).

LenFuego

1:17

All right, Jay, you cannot just lay a “Chris Davis is having the worst season of all-time” in May or June, and not follow it up at some point to let us know where he is on the scale. You have led inquiring minds to want to know, just how much is Chris Davis sucking on a historical scale?

Jay Jaffe

1:18

Good idea! Short version is that he's stopped hemorrhaging, but has ~ -0.3 WAR since I wrote that, I think. Expect a longer report soonish

Bruno315

1:18

From your pure statistical POV, who deserves NL MVP? Are you looking at WAR and that's it or do other stats stand out?

Jay Jaffe

1:24

I'm looking mainly at multiple versions of WAR, for multiple defensive metrics, mainly, but also for components such as baserunning — in this sluggy age, I'd love to support a candidate who's more well-rounded.

Via bWAR, Cain has an 0.8 WAR lead on Baez, who's second, 0.9 on Yelich and Freeman, and 1.0 on Carpenter. Between the two WARs, and some extra pixie dust based upon multiple factors (his importance to a team that's occupying a playoff position, Cain being a highlight-film defender, and Cain being a longtime personal favorite of mine on multiple levels) I would cast a ballot for him if I were voting today. But if I were a voter, I'd hold out until late September to see what the separation looks like as the playoff picture comes more into focus.

Scott

1:24

Mookie's going to win the AL MVP, right?

Jay Jaffe

1:25

It seems entirely plausible. Best player by WAR (even given his absences), exciting player all the way around, on a team with the best record... it would be tough to complain about that, but somehow I think we will manage to

Guest

1:25

odds on the cardinqals making the playoffs

Jay Jaffe

1:26

right here https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Chris

1:27

While we're discussing NL MVP, what does Christian Yelich have to do to take the gold?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

Solve the Middle East puzzle, fix health care, and reverse the effects of the tax cut by making corporations pay their fare share while putting money back in the pockets of average Americans.

Short of that, it's actually pretty similar to the case of Story, albeit with Cain playing the part of Arenado: hit .450 the rest of the way while his teammate cools off, illustrating more divergence in their final stats than exists now.

LA Dodgers

1:29

Tell me why all season it seems I score 1,2,or 3 runs in 8 straight games and then erupt for 12 runs in one game?

Jay Jaffe

1:29

Because baseball is a stupid game.

Parts + Gleyber

1:30

But is Luke Voit Legit? (Legoit?) Is he the starter next season?

Jay Jaffe

1:31

Right now he still looks like the power/low-OBP guy that he's been cast as, albeit one on a hot streak. Can he adjust once pitchers adjust to him? Can he play 1B without embarrassing himself? The Yankees may well give him a chance to find out.

ohioscott

1:31

Based on record alone what team has been your biggest positive surprise and negative surprise? Positive - Tampa or A's or ??? Negative - Nats or Twins or ???

Jay Jaffe

1:33

I think the four teams you named are well qualified within their respective categories. I think most folks actively thought the Rays would be terrible given their trades and injuries, whereas they saw the A's as mediocre, but the distance from expectation to actuality seems pretty similar in both cases. I think the Nationals win the Most Disappointing Team award, hands down — they were supposed to have a shot at a championship, rather than have people lobby for them to be shot out of a cannon.

Matt

1:33

Considering how few innings Ohtani has thrown, should he be converted to a reliever? Is it possible to be a permanent Waxahatchie Swap guy?

Jay Jaffe

1:34

There's a school of thought that turning him into a reliever is the way to go but man, so long as he can do what he did as a starter, I think that avenue is still worth pursuing, surgery and all.

closersforcy

1:35

Which closer do you give the edge to in the AL Cy Young race - Treinen or Diaz?

Jay Jaffe

1:36

I don't think either has a shot in hell given the multitude of strong starting pitchers in the discussion, even without a strong consensus having gathered around any of them.

Matt

1:37

Speaking of the Mets, how have they not even begun their search for their next GM? How mad should I be if Fred Wilpon gets his way and the Mets refuse to pony up for a team prez/GM combo in favor of an "anti-analytics" GM with no real authority?

Jay Jaffe

1:39

Multiple reports say that they've begun their search. the reality is that they probably can't talk to anyone on a contender until after the season is over. See Joel Sherman https://nypost.com/2018/09/04/the-names-on-radar-in-mets-complex-intri...

I think you should already be irate at the Wilpons for the position they have put the Mets in, and prepare to be disappointed once they make their final choice. I mean, I know that's already Mets fans' default state, but now more than ever, it's probably appropriate.

Voit

1:40

With Bird's struggles do you see the Yankees signing Machado and moving Andujar to 1st this offseason, or do you think the Yankees will prioritize pitching in free agency?

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