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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat -9/9/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Hello and good afternoon! Welcome to my first chat in this new time slot — real life events (mainly my daughter starting preschool) have necessitated changing from my Thursday slot, and thankfully, Dan Szymborski was able to accommodate. You'll still get the same artisanal blend of sense and nonsense as I usually dish out.
12:02
I've got a thing in the pipeline today about Michael Pineda's suspension and its impact on the Twins. And now, onto the questions...
JH
12:02
How weak is it that Red Sox ownership isn't going to discuss Dombrowski's firing with the media?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:03
That is a particularly weak move as it leaves Alex Cora and the players to answer questions without knowing all that went into the decision or what the future holds
Wicho
12:03
Presumably, the new regime is going to have to cut payroll in Boston but how are they going to do that? Most of their big money players are not worth their contracts and they don't have the prospects to attach to them.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
Well, I suspect that J.D. Martinez will opt out and that the Sox might decide that their chances of re-signing Betts are better if they haven't committed $100M+ to him. Beyond that... they're going to have to get creative and hope that some of their young players pan out.
Vander
12:05
Do you think it's going to be easy to get Votto into the HoF (where he belongs), or is he going to linger on the ballot like Tim Raines?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
I think a lot depends upon how he rebounds from this season. He's 35 and amid a career-worst year but signed through 2023. A long denouement of mediocre production will be harder to overcome than if he returns to his previous level, obviously. How much it will have an impact, I don't know
Nate
12:07
Josh Donaldson has now exceeded the JAWS peak standard and still has one more light season (1.5 WAR) left in his top 7 that should be relatively easy to replace.  Does he have a chance at the HOF based on peak value, or does the late start doom his chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
Good question. I think the late start is a serious impediment for him; he's in his age-33 season and has just 1,035 career hits. Nobody from the post-1960 period with fewer than 2,000 has been elected by either the writers or the committees, and while that barrier may eventually fall, he doesn't have much margin for error even to get to that (figure 6 seasons of around 150 hits... when right now his last one reaching that level was 2016).
Ay Ay Ron
12:11
Did you see this article? Any response to it? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everyone-thinks-justin-verlander-...
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
Yes, saw it. I like Nathaniel Rakich's work but I think he treats the JAWS line as more of a binary demarcation than it is. to say that a 36-year-old pitcher who's amid a very strong season and clearly has more in the tank is "not yet deserving" is a bit too detached from the context of his current performance — he's very close on peak, and the things he's done (3rd no-hitter) or is about to do (reach 3,000 strikeouts, maybe win a 2nd Cy Young) will probably seal the deal in most voters' minds.

I've been writing about the need for voters to recalibrate their standards for recent pitchers for at least the past two years, and lately have been playing with something within JAWS that might offer a bit of guidance though i'm not ready to reveal it (the article did stimulate me to dig into my spreadsheets though).
MPH
12:16
Do you think Jack Flaherty is going to line up any Cy Young votes? Clearly not top ballot with his struggles in the first half but the second half is downright Gibson-esque
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
Color me skeptical because he's nowhere near the top of either the fWAR or bWAR leaderboards or a lead in any traditional category. He just doesn't have anything that makes him stand out relative to deGrom or Scherzer or Ryu, who are the top 3 (in whatever order) in the minds of most observers right now.
Kosch
12:18
Is JAW's based on a rolling consecutive best 7 seasons?  Or any best 7 seasons?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:20
best seven at large, not necessarily consecutive. When I started JAWS with the 2004 ballot, it was best 5 consecutive with allowances made for military service or injuries. I think i changed that in 2005 or '06 but some people still get confused, which is one reason why i've always been reluctant to tinker too much with the basics of the system
Tony
12:20
After looking over his numbers and how this season has shaken out (excluding the handful of starts since he came off the DL), Cole Hamels is going to end up a fascinating HOF candidate in a decade of so. If he plays 4-5 more years, which he has expressed interest in doing, he has a real shot to pass 70 WAR and 3,000 strikeouts, but 200 wins still seems like a longshot. Even if he hits those two milestones, he's still not getting in, is he?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
Hamels has an even lower peak score (WAR7) than Sabathia, plus he never won a Cy Young, so I think we'll know a bit more about how he'll fare when we see the kind of treatment that CC gets
trots
12:24
is realmuto the best catcher in baseball in your eyes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
IMO it's a toss-up between him and Yasmani Grandal. Baseball Prospectus, which has the best defensive system for catchers IMO, has the two dead even this year, while FG and B-Ref have Realmuto ahead, but not so far ahead that if you were doing a multi-year true talent estimation that you'd definitively elevate him as the number one catcher. His younger age would probably put him ahead from a projection standpoint, though.
Guest
12:27
Good morning Jay! I saw a tweet highlighting that there is a non zero chance that we might end with 6 100-loss teams and every comment on the tweet was a variation of "this is why nobody goes to ballparks anymore". Honestly, more than everything, baseball in 2019 ain't cool. NFL is cool, NBA is cool. J Cole hoops. PFTCommenter is funny. College football/basketball is HUGE. ESPN and Fox talk more about football and basket than baseball in July. It's not the homeruns, it's not the shift, it's not the tanking, it's not the pace of play. It's that we're a borderline niche, not hip sport.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
I don't really care about how cool baseball is perceived to be relative to football or basketball. I do care about the quality of the product on the field and right now I think it's fair to say that it's suboptimal. The home runs, the tanking, and the attendance — they're all linked at least somewhat. The disconnect between revenue and on-field performance via the most recent CBA is a major problem that both sides need to help solve.
Angels
12:30
Do you think Scioscia manages again? If not is he first ballot HOF coach?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
Scioscia's 60 years old and probably viewed as too old school for most of today's front offices, so I'd be very surprised if he manages again, and I'm not sure he wants to. I think he's a HOFer, but not sure if he'd get in on a first ballot.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:31
How long, in your opinion, will it take before pitcher wins are discarded as a stat that really matters as far as HOF voting?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
I think it's going to be a long time before they're completely ignored. I suspect that anybody from among currently or recently active pitchers who doesn't get to 200 wins won't get in.
Guest
12:33
Why did you switch peak JAWS from 7 consecutive years to any 7?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
It was never 7 consecutive, it was 5 consecutive. Found that 7 worked better in identifying short-career guys who got in.
Matt W
12:34
If ever there was a rookie on a 4th place team deserving of the MVP, it would be Alonso. I know he won't overtake Bellinger and Yelich, but there's no way at all that the Mets would be on the fringes of the playoff race without Alonso's contribution. Would you consider voting for him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
No, because defense matters, and it's not that his is bad as it is that there are several players who play more important defensive positions and are having stronger seasons. He's outside the top 10 in both flavors of WAR for example Beyond Bellinger and Yelich, you've got Rendon, Acuña and Marte, at the very least.
Phil Diggety
12:37
Pick two: A's, Ray's, Tribe
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
A's and Rays for the Wild Card. Losing Jose Ramirez is a tough blow, and it appears they're probably not getting Kluber back.
Tom
12:39
Had Adam Wainwright not been injured those seasons and had he performed to a close or similar level, would he be a HOFer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
that's A LOT of ifs. He's got four 6-WAR seasons (B-Ref wise) but never won a Cy Young award, and never led the league in ERA or strikeouts. A nice career but I'm not seeing a particularly strong foundation for a case.
Nick
12:42
The Dodgers' undoing in the playoffs will be (a) their shaky bullpen, or (b) their suddenly lackluster rotation?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
The bullpen is a bigger problem, IMO, but Maeda could be a major part of the solution.
Bean sandwich
12:43
Do you sometimes wish people would ask you questions about the best bagels you'd ever eaten?  You could call your chat sessions The Hole of Fame, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
LOL. My favorite bagels were from a place in the East Village called David Bagel's, but my favorite toppings — lox, whitefish, and other delights — is from Russ and Daughters, whose bagels are about league-average at best.
Mac
12:47
If the Cubs tailspin out of control for a 2nd consecutive September, do you see any managerial changes being made in the offseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
If they miss the playoffs I have to think Maddon is a goner. The fact that he's working without an option suggests that he may well be even if the Cubs do make it.
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