JotCast | Jay Jaffe Inaugural FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe Inaugural FanGraphs Chat - 2/15/18

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Jay Jaffe

12:01

Hello and welcome to my FanGraphs chat debut, part of what we might call my soft launch at FG (Im going on a previously scheduled vacation next week) ! I'm an old hand at chats from my Baseball Prospectus days, and we did a few at SI around trade deadlines, but I'm looking forward to getting back to doing these regularly. Anyhoo, on with the show...

Clay Achin'

12:02

What can you tell us about yourself, for the uninitiated

Jay Jaffe

12:05

I laid out an outline of my career in my introductory post (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/stepping-into-the-box/) but for those who haven't gotten there yet, I've been writing about baseball since 2001, when I started up Futility Infielder. Debuted at BP in early 2004, writing about Hall of Fame stuff, and later creating the Prospectus Hit List and writing a column called Prospectus Hit and Run. in 2012, Sport Illustrated hired me to start up a new daily baseball blog, and gradually that morphed into a less bloggy/more column-oriented role. I'm best known for my HOF work, which culminated in the publication of my book, the Cooperstown Casebook, this past July. I live in Brooklyn, amm married to a baseball writer/editor, Emma Span (late of SI, now at the Athletic) and have an adorable 18-month old daughter.

Brad

12:06

Replacing Eno's chat is tough act to follow. I wish you the best. Chase Utley a hall of famer in your opinion?

Jay Jaffe

12:09

Eno has left some very big shoes to fill, both in terms of baseball and craft beer. I do think Chase Utley is Hallworthy; he's 10th among second basemen in my JAWS system, which averages a player's career and 7-year peak WAR. Alas, I think the late start to his career will make him a tough sell among voters, because so much of his value is tied to defense and because he'll likely fall short of 2,000 hits — a proxy for career length that has unfortunately become a bright-line test for voters (Bobby Grich, Dick Allen, Minnie Minoso, Jim Edmonds are among those on the wrong side of that line).

CamdenWarehouse

12:09

Welcome, Jay! This timeslot is known for accepting beer questions, is that ok with you?

Jay Jaffe

12:10

Beer questions are fine, but I've probably got less range than Eno on that one. I enjoy IPAs and dark stuff, not into sours.

Stan

12:10

Welcome to FanGraphs, Jay! Do you answer fantasy baseball questions?

Jay Jaffe

12:11

I stopped playing fantasy baseball around 2011, because it felt too much like a chore, though I did write about it for several years before and after that. I'm just not going to be of great help in that department.

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

12:11

How long do you expect the Angel's six-man rotation experiment to last? Feel free to assume that Ohtani hits at 100 wRC+ when he DHs.

Jay Jaffe

12:14

Color me skeptical about the six-man plan. We've seen teams dabble with it for stretches, with the 2011 White Sox giving it the strongest go, for about half a season in 2011, but inevitably they abandon it. I'd love to see how the Angels work it, almost as much as I'd love to see what Ohtani can show us in both hitting and pitching contexts.

Wayne

12:14

How do you see the Braves handling McCarthy and Kazmir? Do you think they are able to trade one before opening day, they really need spots for young arms.

Jay Jaffe

12:18

Both of those pitchers are such wild cards when it comes to health, combining for 16 starts last year and 35 the year before. Most of their youngsters aren't ready to throw a full complement of 30 starts/180+ innings. I think they'll get what they can out of the two ex-Dodgers as soon as they can, in part to showcase them for further travels throughout the league and to give the youngsters a bit more time.

Daniel

12:18

How do you feel about Nick Markakis? Is he going to make it to 3000 hits?

Jay Jaffe

12:20

I don't think so. He's heading into his age-34 season, has 948 hits to go, and has spent most of the past five seasons as a sub-average player at an offense-first position. Part-time duty awaits him at some point.

Big Joe Mufferaw

12:20

Over/Under of WS for yankees in the next 10 years: 1.5? WS appearances: 2.5?

Jay Jaffe

12:23

2.5 seems reasonable. Cashman has assembled a great core of prospects to augment those twin tower sluggers and some pretty good pitching, and after they reset their luxury tax this year, they'll be more free to spend on one of the big-ticket players next winter, Machado or Harper. I'd put them just behind the Astros right now as far as AL supremacy, with the Indians and Red Sox either needing additional moves or multiple breaks to move into that territory (though our projected standings say otherwise).

Andy

12:25

Humidor: A boon to the value of Godley/Miller/Greinke? Does it boost Arizona's pitching staff enough to give them a boost in projections this year?

Jay Jaffe

12:29

It'll help the flyball-oriented pitchers (Miller, if healthy, and then Greinke) more than the groundballers (Godley), but the D-backs as a whole had the 2nd-highest GB% in the NL. I'd be wary of assuming they'll get a ton of help but yeah, you can give the best of them a nudge forward in the projections

Chuck-it

12:30

Since you're THE guy to ask - Roy Halladay getting in on the first ballot?

Jay Jaffe

12:31

Last year, in my annual end-of-cycle 5-year outlook I suggested that Halladay might take 3-4 years, but now I think his tragic death strongly increases the likelihood of him making it on the first ballot. Either way, he's worthy of induction and his career should be celebrated and honored.

Ray McConnell

12:32

Why is the most difficult position, catcher, underrepresented in the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe

12:35

Hey Ray! Catchers generally don't reach the offense-oriented milestones that we associate with easy routes to Cooperstown, and until recently, we've had a dearth of data about their defense, with SB% both the most readily available stat and one of decreasing importance in recent years. That said, we did just have catchers elected back-to-back (Piazza and Pudge in 2016-17) for the first time since 1954-55 (Bill Dickey and Gabby Hartnett). I'd love to see Ted Simmons get in via the Modern Baseball ballot; he came close this past year but now has to wait 2 more years.

Jason

12:35

Any idea why Arizona would want to use a humidor? Good hitters park but didn't seem like a crazy outlier like Colorado.

Jay Jaffe

12:38

Arizona has the 2nd-highest elevation of any MLB park, over 1,000 feet above sea level. I'm not sure wha the splits are with the roof closed vs. open but I imagine it further contributes to the high HR rate there. It's going to be an interesting experiment.

12:38

What is it like having a wife in the baseball business?

Jay Jaffe

12:42

It's generally pretty great except that in October, we live in near-squalor due to the intensity of playoff coverage. Emma knows her stuff, she knows a good story, she's got a great eye for the absurd and she's an excellent sounding board for my ideas (and hopefully vice-versa). We both understand the cyclical nature of the season, why there are times that we have to bury ourselves in work — from past experience, that's been a difficult thing to navigate in relationships.

12:42

Is there room in the Hall for a player like Omar Vizquel?

Jay Jaffe

12:45

His glove and cleats, yes — as the all-time leader in games played by a shortstop. His plaque, I'm not sold. because the defensive metrics don't make a strong enough case to offset his genuinely dreadful offense. He made a pretty solid debut on this year's ballot (37%), and he may gain support simply due to traffic thinning out over the next few years, but as the electorate becomes a bit more stat-oriented, I think he's going to hit a ceiling short of 75%.

Estevao

12:45

Top 10 by position SP

thoughts

1, Clayton Kershaw.
2, Corey Kluber.
3, Max Scherzer.
4, Chris Sale.
5, Stephen Strasburg
6, Noah Syndergaard
7, Madison Bumgarner
8, Jacob DeGrom
9, Luis Severino
10, Zack Greinke/Justin Verlander/Carlos Carrasco
On that last spot i just could not make a decision, very close

Jay Jaffe

12:48

I'd put Scherzer above Kershaw right now due to his durability. vs CK's two years of back woes and the Dodgers throwing the brakes on his workload. I'm also not very high on Bumgarner and would definitely have him below the trio you have at 10. Fulmer's a guy I'd squeeze in there somewhere as well, even though he's not a big K guy.

Jealous Dude

12:48

Can I just say, I'm pretty dang jealous that you and your wife are both baseball writers. I want that life.

Jay Jaffe

12:49

I'm thankful every day that I get to write about baseball for a living, and I think Emma feels the same way about her work. Even at the less fun times, there are a lot of less interesting things we could be doing.

Estevao

12:49

Career wRC+ and wOBA:

Andruw Jones: 111, .352

Alan Trammel: 111 .343

Cal Ripken: 112 .346 thoughts on that

Jay Jaffe

12:50

I think Jones got a raw deal from HOF voters but at least he made it to a 2nd ballot, unlike Lofton and Edmonds. Career length is obviously a factor— he's another guy on the wrong side of 2,000 hits, and both Trammell and Ripken played forever. My HOF would have all three in.

John Oleruds Helmet

12:51

Could a two way player that’s a bat first and middle reliever become the new market inefficiency? Would essentially be a 26th man on the roster

Jay Jaffe

12:52

I'd love to see somebody try it, the next step from the Brooks Kieschnick role of ~15 years ago (he was mainly mop-up_. A guy who could PH in the 5th/6th and then serve as a bridge to the late-inning guys, maybe.

HugoZ

12:52

Do you think a salary floor, with penalties for going below it, would be of any help in the tanking issue?

Jay Jaffe

12:54

I'm not sure a salary floor is the answer, but i do think that the CBA needs to more strongly encourage competing/penalize tanking. I liked the plan put forth by JJ Cooper of Baseball America (https://www.baseballamerica.com/columnists/tank-tax-push-teams-try-har...), a "Tank Tax" in which teams that don't win a given number of games in back-to-back years (70 was his suggestion, but subject to change) get pushed down 10 slots in the draft.

12:54

What does scherzer need to do to get into the Hall? Does he need 200 wins? He'll be close...

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