JotCast | Jay Jaffe Inaugural FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe Inaugural FanGraphs Chat - 2/15/18

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Jay Jaffe

12:57

I think with the 3 Cys, he's going in so long as he bulks up his career numbers. It's generally impossible to get in with less than 200 wins; I see him getting there with 3,000 strikeouts, and with the dearth of strong candidates coming down the pike — something which the electorate needs to recalibrate for, as I've argued elsewhere — that will probably be enough.

Well-Beered Englishman

12:57

So living with another baseball writer, how much baseball do you guys watch on TV each year? over/under 200 games?

Jay Jaffe

12:58

Baseball is on every night during the season in our household, especially once the kiddo is in bed. Its not always the focus of what we're doing but it's the backdrop, and unless we're watching during dinner, we don't flip around much. I'd say it's closer to 250 since we usually watch one 7/8 pm slot and one west coast one (generally the Dodgers unless they're in a blowout or traveling east).

The Miracle of Altuve

12:58

1) How short is Altuve, really? 5'3"?
2) I assume he is rock solidly on a HOF track career. Am I correct?
3) If inducted, what percentile height will he be among fellow Hall of Famers? 1st %ile? 2nd? I'm sure there were some shorties among the Old Timers. Just not sure how many and how short.

Jay Jaffe

1:03

Altuve's got a ways to go. He's only heading into his age-28 season and has 3 Hall-caliber seasons under his belt. Which isn't to say he won't make it — I sure hope he does — but the career paths of 2B, with earlier starts and younger peaks, are something to beware of. I think he's legitimately about 5'5" but he lists at 5'6"; going by that, there are six players as tall or shorter in the Hall, out of 221 who were elected for their MLB playing careers. Wee Willie Keeler is the only one listed at 5'4"

Bertie

1:03

What do the Dodgers do with Kemp?

Jay Jaffe

1:04

Eventually, they'll swallow hard and give up a valuable prospect just to get that money off the books. It's not a tenable situation.

Bryan

1:04

Is it pronounced Japh? Or Jaffee?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

Jaffe rhymes with taffy. No relation to Al of Mad Magazine fame.

IPA You Say?

1:05

IPAs: you a New England or West Coast style guy?

Jay Jaffe

1:06

I like them both! Certainly seeing a lot more NEIPAs these days, many of the best NY-area craft brewers are doing them, but they tend to be expensive and/or require going out of my way to buy instead of picking up at the corner deli or even the grocery store.

jkim

1:06

Which Alex Wood is the real Alex Wood? The 1st Half 2017 sub-2.00 ERA Wood? or the 2nd Half, mediocre but still serviceable starter Alex Wood?

Jay Jaffe

1:08

I think the 2nd half guy is a function of his being overworked. The upside of All-Star caliber hurler is clearly there, but he apparently needs to be handled with some care. For the Dodgers' purposes, particularly without having landed Darvish, It would be great to see him get up to the 175-180 inning mark, something he hasn't done since 2015

Another Spring.

1:08

If Judge and Stanton are both having a run at Maris's single-season (Yankee) HR record - Do you think it will be the most hyped thing to watch (after August)? Who do you think has more power between the two (not necessarily the one who hits more HRs)?

Jay Jaffe

1:10

If both are making a run at 61, the hype will be incredible. As for who has more power, it's a coin toss, but I guess I'd say Judge based on last year's average exit velocity (95 MPH for him, 92.6 for Stanton).

Billy Beane

1:10

How is your prospect knowledge, Jay J.?

Jay Jaffe

1:11

I know enough to read the people who know about this stuff, because I really don't. Really looking forward to working with Kiley and Eric because it's been a long time since I was on the same staff as prospect-oriented writers.

Mister Puppy

1:11

Better Jay: Jon or Gibbons?

Jay Jaffe

1:12

Jay Buhner

Mat

1:12

Can Chris Taylor repeat his .288/.354/.496 line from last year? Seems he’s due a regression but how much?

Jay Jaffe

1:14

I'd bet on a bit of regression but he's clearly somebody who can legitimately produce thanks to the changes he made to his swing. I think he'll remain a solid asset in the Dodgers lineup. He had a 126 wC+ last year, Steamer projects him for 96 — i'd bet he's closer to the former. Call it 116.

Justin

1:14

Is JAWS going to move to fangraphs and if so will there be any other tweeks like a return to five consecutive years for the peak?

Jay Jaffe

1:16

I've said this before and I'll say it again: JAWS will remain as is, driven by Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR. Sean Forman and Hans Van Slooten at B-Ref have been exemplary partners in helping my metric reach the far corners of the baseball world over the past five years, and I have no desire to (further) confuse anybody wading into the waters of advanced stat-based Hall of Fame analysis. And for now I'm sticking with 7 year at-large peak, I don't see the value in suddenly switching things up and having people confused by the body of work I have that's in circulation. And I really don't think the FIP-driven pitching WAR that FanGraphs uses is suitable for handling pitchers from eras where strikeouts and homers were relatively rare.

Morbo

1:18

Related to Ray's question, Yadier Molina future hall of famer? Is his defensive reputation enough to get him in?

Jay Jaffe

1:20

Wrote about this at https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/04/06/yadier-molina-cardinals-contract-hal... last April and to my mind, not much has changed. I think his will be a polarizing candidacy because of the gap between perception and stats, which isn't to say that I think what we have captures the totality of his contributions to a staff. It will be interesting (and perhaps exhausting) to see how voters react.

1:20

Any hope the nats get a catcher?

Jay Jaffe

1:22

I'm sure there's somebody out there hoping the Nationals get a catcher. but they still have Wieters under contract and I'd expect him to get the bulk of the playing time.

Anon

1:22

Can you comment on what prompted you to choose FG? With experience at BP, SI, and others you've obviously seen a good cross-section of platforms. What made this one more compelling than, say, your wife's employer? Welcome aboard!

Lou Sassole

1:23

What is your take on Todd Helton's candidacy? Great offensive numbers, decent defender with athletic pedigree, generally seen as a good teammate/ambassador, no PED ties. Only strikes against him seem to be an inflated offensive era (not his fault) and Coors Field (not his fault).

Jay Jaffe

1:25

If the more well-rounded Larry Walker — who's 10th in JAWS among RF — can't get in via the writers, I don't see how Helton (14th among 1B, lacking major offensive milestones beyond 2,500 hits and 350 HR, which obviously don't carry huge cachet) will, though at least the ballot traffic will be considerably lighter.

tacopocket

1:25

re vizquel. How much better was Ozzie Smith? Or did his personality/charisma give him the final push? I just can't see how mazeroski and smith are in yet guys like vizquel and keith hernandez are left out.

Jay Jaffe

1:29

based on the WAR components that go into JAWS, Smith was 111 runs better on the defensive side and 221 runs better on the offensive side (including baserunning/DP avoidance, where Ozzie is a huge plus and Omar a dud). Obviously, both had flash but the basic range stats on defense are strongly tilted in Smith's favor. It doesn't hurt that STL won a World Series and that he had a big postseason moment with his HR off Niedenfeuer.

I'd be far more inclined to vote for Hernandez than i would Vizquel.

Joe

1:29

JA Happ made it to SI top 100 players of 2018, but no Aaron Nola? Track record? of based off of last season?

Jay Jaffe

1:31

We used 3 years of data where possible, with 2017 the strongest weight, but adjusting when we had less. I argued in general for Happ based on his consistency. I think Nola made the just-missed group.

andrew

1:31

can you elaborate on what makes Fulmer equally or more attractive than Bumgarner to you? There doesn't seem like an obvious thing he's better at.

Jay Jaffe

1:34

Fulmer's better at riding motor bikes, but TBH I probably overstated his case relative to Bum. I think the extremity of AT&T Park is something that people don't take into enough account, but OTOH, Bumgarner's hitting is an asset that can't be dismissed in an either/or comp.

Sonny Grayjoy

1:34

Do you think the concerns about the Yankees rotation are being overblown? The way I look at it, Sonny Gray is slated to be their #3 guy, would be a #1/2 on most staffs. With CC and Montgomery having very solid years last year, rounding out the rotation. They have some high quality arms in the minors ready to go as well (Adams, Sheffield). Of course another piece like Lynn/Cobb would be nice for any team, but I don't think it's necessary.

Jay Jaffe

1:36

They've got a lot of depth but also a lot of ifs. Can Gray get back to being the stalwart he was in Oakland? Can CC stay healthy? Can Tanaka dominate like he did in the postseason? The powerful offense will paper over some of their issues but I think they need a fair bit to go right.

Matt

1:36

What does your wife do in the baseball industry?

Jay Jaffe

1:37

she was previously the senior baseball editor at SI on the magazine side (I was rarely writing directly for her). She's now the managing editor of The Athletic's national vertical, where she's overseeing Eno, among others.

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