Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/13/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:26
Already, Ray just ranked fifth in baseball in strikeout rate. He's one of the more interesting pitchers in the NL today. If he gets better, he could be an ace
Roadhog
9:27
Does the Jairo Garcia signing allow the A's to trade some pitching? Liam Hendriks+ for Raimel Tapia is trading from depth for both teams.
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
Come back in July. Right now the A's aren't interested in reducing their own pitching depth
Weezy
9:28
Hi Jeff, welcome back! Are you a picture taker when you travel? Or prefer to "live in the moment" more?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
I get my pictures for the sake of preserving memories, but my girlfriend is the one with actual know-how, and a nice camera. Her pictures are way way better
jon
9:29
Maddon and Hoyer both want Schwarber to lead off, at least vs RHP. Good idea/bad idea?
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
Probably the most sensible idea, unless Heyward bounces way back. The Cubs love Schwarber's ability to consistently work a great at-bat, and he's going to get on base a ton
Graver
9:32
Did you know that 251 Million years ago, 95% of life on Earth became extinct?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
Yes
Most people should!
"the Great Dying" is a wonderful term
Mike
9:34
If I am the Dodgers why not wait for 1/3 (4 of 12 months under contract) of Dozier's surplus value to expire and pick him up at a better price at the deadline. Could cost less than DeLeon.
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
Prices only go up during the season, not down, and by then the Twins might be reluctant to move Dozier anyway. Plus there could be other suitors. For now, the 2B market is stagnant
Werner Herzog
9:35
Are you able to enjoy vacation all the way through to its conclusion or towards the end of it do you allow the dread of returning to everyday life to creep in?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
For ordinary weekends, the second half of Sunday is usually spent thinking somewhat about returning to work. But on real vacations, I'm mostly able to ignore this stuff. Especially vacations with inconsistent or non-existent wifi
Buff
9:36
Read a piece by Dylan Svoboda in BP Milwaukee yesterday arguing that the Brewers should trade Junior Guerra -- inevitable regression, won't be around when the Brewers get good. Agreed or not? Over/under that he's gone at least by trade decline?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
I don't think there's an urgency. A good trade needs for there to be a market. Guerra could only improve his own market by demonstrating that he's for real. The Brewers have time here
Erik
9:38
Are the Mariners significantly better than when you left for vacation? Seems like a lot of meaningless tweaks and a big overpay for a 4th starter.
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
I like Smyly, and I like Dyson. They didn't pick up much in the way of long-term surplus value, and I don't think they got *significantly* better, but I do think they got better. That outfield could be pretty strong
Zonk
9:39
Is it me, or is there a huge dearth of movement/news right now in baseball? It's me, right?
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
Players and teams avoiding arbitration doesn't do it for you?
We're in the offseason dead zone. For the players remaining, teams are just waiting them out, looking for one of them to get desperate to find a new home
ManBearPuig
9:40
How much of Mike Trout's value is based on his position? If he were moved to a corner outfield spot, how much WAR would he lose?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
The way this works is that, in theory, Trout wouldn't lose any WAR, because the position change would be offset by a better defensive performance
In reality, Trout would lose some of his shine if he were a LF/RF. But he'd still be the best player in the world
CarrotJuice
9:41
Welcome back Jeff! Would a trade centered around Baez and De Leon make sense for both teams?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
Baez has five years of control and a mega-high ceiling. The Dodgers would need to add on
LudeBurger
9:43
Jeff, how good of grades in defense-related tools (and offense-related ones too if it matters) would a prospect need in order to be a left-handed fielding/throwing SS, 3B, 2B, or C?
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
The first one would have to be elite. Like Andrelton Simmons-level good. So good you couldn't ignore him. After that, the bar would get progressively lower
Logan
9:45
Do you think Coppy will do something "big" eventually? In terms of improving the MLB team by trading prospects.
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
So many of their top prospects are pitchers with massive question marks. For the time being, I think the Braves like those guys more than other teams do
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
9:46
Why weren't the SEA-ATL and SEA-TB deals a three-way trade?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
It effectively was a three-way trade, but the key was just Smith, and maybe Dipoto found it simpler to conduct the talks separately
You never know how the Braves and Rays might've interacted if they were brought to the same table
Lord above
9:48
Watching MLB network yesterday cause why not and the extent to which the talking heads seem to understand Chris carters lack of value but not mark trumbos baffles me. How much better is trumbo really? Am I missing something?
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
Trumbo gives you a little more in terms of defense and contact, so he is the better player. But, yes, the difference has probably been exaggerated. Trumbo should not be getting $50m+ while Carter struggles to find a home
9:51
Sorry about that delay, got a phone call
Q-Ball
9:52
Do you think the Mariners would like to un-do the Vogelbach/Monty trade? Wouldn't they be better off with Monty in the 'pen, and just sign one of the bats available, like Napoli or Carter?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Montgomery isn't actually all that good, and they are believers in Vogelbach's bat. I don't think it's something they'd badly want to undo. But they probably also didn't foresee the way this market would play out. There are half-decent bats everywhere, just looking for homes
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