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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/20/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:45
Betts is at 2+ years of service time. So was McCutchen after 2011, when he signed his contract extension
9:46
McCutchen got 6/$51.5 million, with a club option. He had been worth 12 WAR in the majors to that point
Betts has been worth 14 WAR in the majors to this point. Similar kind of hitter, probably superior in the field
9:47
Consider that, and consider inflation, and perhaps you take Betts up to something like 6/$70 million with an option?
Should be somewhere around there, assuming such a contract would kick in immediately, paying Betts almost nothing in 2017
Weezy
9:47
Some writers seems to care far too much about the Hall of Fame. What nuance of baseball/baseball culture would you say you care far too much about?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
I'll say this for the Hall of Fame -- some people do seem to care too much about it, but this talk also comes right smack dab in the middle of the worst part of the annual baseball calendar, so you'll see more material on the HoF just because there's nothing else to discuss
9:49
I care too much about underappreciated statistical extremes. Players who are really good or really bad at things that many people tend not to notice
9:50
Like Jacoby Ellsbury shattering the all-time catcher's interference record, or Nick Vincent having one of baseball's most unhittable fastballs
I can't believe that shit is my job
Pat
9:50
On Opening Day 2017, Jurickson Profar is the starting ______ for the _________
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
nothing, Rangers
mtsw
9:51
Will the Orioles be smart and keep Trumbo out of the outfield, even if it means having Hyun Soo Kim hit against LHP? Am I crazy to think Chris Davis makes more sense in RF than Trumbo does?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
I don't know why the Orioles would change course after having both of those same players last season
If Trumbo were new to them, sure, you could wonder. But they just had them both, and Davis started at first base 152 times. That's the plan.
Jason
9:52
Dansby Swanson and Jurickson Profar have similar offensive value?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
What?
Dansby Swanson, in a small sample, has been a good major-league hitter. Jurickson Profar has been a hitter in the major leagues
Susan
9:52
Have you seen Amed Rosario? How excited should Met fans be?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
I have personally seen almost no prospects
For I am not a prospect guy!
Garrit
9:54
Gun to head, Benintendi or Bregman, long-term? Thank you!
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
Love 'em both but I'll take Bregman. I think he brings a little more, defensively
Erik
9:54
Let's say every playoff contender loses their top two starting pitchers. Are the Cubs uniquely able to cope due to their excellent offense, uniquely unable due to their lack of SP depth, or more or less the same as everyone else since those two factors are equally important?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
The Cubs' greatest strength is just their *overall* strength. They'd be able to cope better than most teams just because they're beginning from the highest possible slot. I don't think they're unique in any regard, as far as this question goes. Their rotation would be badly damaged, more than some other teams. But they'd still be a playoff favorite
9:56
Even now, if you took away Lester and Arrieta and replaced them with 0 WAR, the Cubs would be Steamer-projected for a team WAR of 43.6. That would rank them between the Astros and the Giants
EbenezerBatflip
9:57
Expectations for Benintendi's first full season? Can he hit 25HRs in a full season?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
For this year I think he has a better shot at 50 doubles than 25 homers
Depressed in Denver
9:57
Rockies catch a lot of flack for their decision making. Is the criticism deserved? How would you best explain what their "issues" are?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
They make inefficient decisions way too often
Things like signing Ian Desmond, or signing Gerardo Parra, or trading younger talent for Jake McGee
9:59
All along, the Rockies have been developing a half-decent young core, and they still have a shot at building a winner before too long, but they haven't been helping themselves. They're not maximizing their assets
jimmy
10:00
Apparently there are multiple clubs who have Robert Gsellman ranked higher internally than Giolito and Glasnow. Is that crazy?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
Yes
10:01
I totally get being skeptical of Giolito or Glasnow ever finding the zone, but Gsellman hasn't thrown a bunch of strikes *or* missed a bunch of bats. He doesn't interest me
Juan Uribe
10:02
Who will Jerry Dipoto trade next?
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
Mike Freeman, in March, for a PTBNL or cash considerations
Mike
10:02
What is more likely; Francis Martes is traded or Francis Martes in part of the rotation by July? Thanks.
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
Come this time of year I get conservative about big trades, so I'll say the second one
mtsw
10:03
Will Edgar Martinez get into the Hall of Fame on the strength of a positive comparison to David Ortiz? People have just sort of agreed Ortiz is a surefire first ballot guy in a way that will create a lot of precedent to let lesser players in.
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