Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/20/17
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Jeff Sullivan
10:04
I think that was one of the big things driving Edgar's momentum this time around. It's complicated -- there's a handful of factors --but Ortiz retired at a convenient time for Edgar's candidacy. You can't really defend an Ortiz vote paired with an Edgar non-vote
MeDeKe
10:04
Give me some hope - Giolito still a good long term high-end investment (#2 SP), or more average-at-best? Thanks, Jeff!
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Big question marks, but this time last year a bunch of us were kind of down on Aaron Sanchez, and he mostly found the zone after that. So it wouldn't take a whole lot for Giolito to get back around where he was, hype-wise
Ronnie
10:05
The 2005 draft was over a dozen years ago! Ryan Braun has had two relatively healthy productive seasons in a row (550+ PA's, 130ish wRC+). Andrew McCutchen cratered badly last year (106 wRC+). The projections like McCutchen to produce a higher wRC+ in 2017 (129 to 117), what about you?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
I think Braun just over-achieved, power-wise. I'll take McCutchen at the plate in the short-term
Matt
10:08
Why does Willy Garcia have 30 innings of relief pitching allocated to him in the Pirates' depth charts projections?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
Because some one's not paying close enough attention. I just removed him
20longyears
10:10
Bill Mazeroski and the Hall of Fame… to you, does his sort of player belong in the Hall? Lousy but playable hitter who might be a utility player today, but in his time, teams valued premium defense at 2B, and the numbers say Maz is the greatest defensive 2B of the modern era. In other words, should “best ________” of a prized skill in its day overrule WAR in special HoF cases?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
We're about to have this conversation when we get to the Omar Vizquel ballot. And Vizquel has his supporters, but I just don't see it. Mazeroski as a hitter was really quite bad. He was a defensive specialist, but that's not enough for me. Is Andrelton Simmons going to make your Hall of Fame?
EbenezerBatflip
10:15
The 2016 Red Sox were an extremely aggressive and successful base-stealing team in the first half of the season, then due to injury and fatigue, seemed to very visibly take emphasis off the speed part of the game in the second half. Do you expect a younger/healthier 2017 team to continue the aggressive basestealing from the first half of 2016? Especially now that they are without David Ortiz to be an RBI machine, it seems like emphasizing speed might be a great way to offset a loss of power.
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
The early steals mostly came from Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, and Ramirez. I don't think Ramirez will be running, but Betts should go again, now that his knee is cleaned up. Bradley should be good for about 15 bags, and the same goes for Bogaerts. Benintendi should get into the double digits
It won't be a priority, I don't think, but it also won't be a station-to-station ballclub. It's a decently athletic lineup
Jim Lonborg
10:17
Since you brought up catching re: Sale--do you have thoughts about the Red Sox catching situation? Do you expect Swihart to get a real shot, or does the team seem content with a Leon/Vazquez platoon even if that turns out to be defense-only?
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
They'll be happy with how they're starting out, but expect them to reevaluate in the event of Leon not actually being a hitter
CamdenWarehouse
10:17
Do you think Harper's 17 will be closer to his 16 or 15?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
2016
I think he'll be better than he was in 2016, but that's still my leaning
Matt
10:18
Who is the most underrated player in the majors right now?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
Maybe AJ Pollock, given how everyone forgot about him in 2016 while he was sidelined
10:19
Pollock, pre-injury, was basically Mookie Betts.
Steve
10:19
Chances of Trumbo repeating his offensive performance in 2017?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
25%. He's probably more like a 110 wRC+ guy
botchatheny
10:19
do you ever wonder what life would be like if your name was geoff?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
On Facebook my name is Geoff
and no
Pie
10:20
The only way to know if you're faster than David Ortiz is to setup a 1 on 1 race. Let's make this happen
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
You place the calls
Jason
10:20
Could Willson Contreras be a Buster Posey type with the bat in a couple years?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
I can see Contreras being a strong offensive player, but not at all in the Posey mold -- Posey has way better bat-to-ball skills
Contreras as a rookie ran a contact rate of 70%. Posey for his career is at 86%
Eric
10:23
Does Omar Vizquel belong in the Hall? I say no way. What about Andruw Jones?
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
Jones is a lot closer for me than Vizquel, but I still lean no on him
I'm open to the argument, and I don't want to undervalue defensive contributions in hindsight, but his career is so weird. It would take a while for me to wrap my head around him
Jack
10:23
What do you think will be the trade value of international cap space?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
Really high. Under-covered subject. One international dollar might end up being worth like $20 - 25 on the market
Geoff
10:25
Who do you think the best player traded between now and opening day will be?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
For lack of better response, I'll say the Dodgers and Twins find an agreement on Dozier
Matt
10:26
Do you think the offseason is pretty much over in regards to big moves? Or do you see some worthwhile news coming before spring training?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
There will still be Dodgers/2B rumors, and there will still be Astros/SP rumors. By no means a guarantee of anything getting done, but that's enough to hang onto for the month until spring training begins
EbenezerBatflip
10:26
JBJ looked streaky again in 2016, is that who he is as a hitter or is he still making adjustments? Will he stabilize in 2017? Ever?
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