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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/20/17
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Jeff Sullivan
10:47
The most surprising would probably be Montgomery turning into a legit No. 3. Heyward is the most important of all the players, but they probably already assume he'll be good for a wRC+ of 100 or thereabouts
EbenezerBatflip
10:48
Which 2016 All Star pitcher is more likely to return to AS form in 2017, Steven Wright or Drew Pomeranz?
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
Last I heard, Wright was still having some little issues with his shoulder. So I have to lean Pomeranz
TengoPreguntas
10:48
Re Rockies - also held onto Cargo for too long/want to extend him?
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
Something weird there, too. The Rockies just appear to have an unusual internal valuation system
Julio Pepper
10:49
Andruw Jones had like 60 WAR before the age of 30! Since we think the Hall should weight peak more than longevity, why the hesitation on Jones?
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
I have a little more hesitation on guys with so much defensive value, since I'm not convinced we've measured it accurately
10:50
I don't think anyone disagrees that Jones was an outstanding defensive player, but was he worth like 30 wins out there? That's so, so hard to know
Chardee
10:53
Best Cody Bellinger comp?
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
I don't know about *best* but maybe the better years of Nick Swisher's career?
Puts the ball in the air, strikes out without striking out too much. Will walk
Nobody Important
10:55
What kind of contract would Harper have signed if he were a free agent after the 2015 season? How different would it be from a contract he would have signed if he were a free agent after 2016?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
I'd say in this hypothetical, the season Harper just had would've cost him at least like $100 million on the market, assuming something like a 10-year contract with no opt-outs, for simplicity
As a free agent today, Harper could easily clear $400 million
EbenezerBatflip
10:56
Why were the earliest reports about amending the CBA for Otani positive and then a few days later shot down? Is that no longer a serious option or possibility? Isn't it in the MLB's best interest to get Otani over here ASAP?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
At the end of the day, Otani is one player, and you won't alter something so massive because of one player at one time. Early on, it looked like there might be some way around the system, but then a few people, including Dave, dug, and found out that, nope, it is what it is. If Otani comes over, it's because he's willing to sacrifice a lot of potential earnings
Jon
10:57
If a win is worth roughly 7 million, then Mike Trout is worth ___________
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
a medium-sized African country
El Duderino
10:58
If an AVG MLB player (Let's say Chase Headley) were to somehow be draft eligible (at his age, with regular draft compensation), where would he get drafted?
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
If the player is somewhere around 26-28 years old, then first or second
Curtis
11:00
What is the worst contract in baseball right now?
Jeff Sullivan
11:00
I want to say Giancarlo Stanton
Can you believe that thing basically just started?
Chaps
11:00
Do you think the Astros make a trade for a starting pitcher, or do they stay put until an injury / trade deadline?
Jeff Sullivan
11:00
I think they stay put through into the regular season
BrizzoBromance
11:01
Other than the argument that Babe Ruth played in a segregated era (which I believe to be a pretty good argument), it seems hard to argue against him as best player ever. 6 of the top 10 best seasons by WAR and the best ever by career WAR
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
I'm not sure, but I *think* that Ruth stands out the most in baseball history in terms of career vs. league landscape. Like, he has the highest-ever career z-score, if you know what I mean. Seems like a pretty good measure
Nobody Important
11:02
Prediction for the player with the most TOOTBLANs next season?
Jeff Sullivan
11:02
Cesar Hernandez
Danny
11:02
Most underrated player is easily Mike Trout.
Jeff Sullivan
11:02
I mean, very possibly
Curtis
11:02
If the Mariners made a post season series, what would their rotation look like?
Jeff Sullivan
11:02
Well, in this hypothetical, Felix is probably okay, so you'd go Felix/Paxton/Iwakuma(/Smyly)
EbenezerBatflip
11:03
Pedroia's contract goes through 2022, what does he have to do from now until then to get into the HoF? Can he average like 2WAR a season from here out and still get in?
Jeff Sullivan
11:04
No, I don't think he has the peak seasons. He needs to do what he did last year a few more times
He's never slugged .500, and he's been a good defender without being an obviously-in-your-face good defender. Good candidate to end up underrated in the voting
EbenezerBatflip
11:04
I would hire Cherington in a heartbeat
Jeff Sullivan
11:04
I'm getting that you are a Red Sox fan
Curtis
11:06
If baseball were to expand, what's the rule on protecting players for an expansion draft?
Jeff Sullivan
11:06
So I don't know if they would keep the same rules, but I'm pretty sure the last time around, the way things worked was basically that 40-man players were eligible to be drafted, and teams could protect 15 of them
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