Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/20/17
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Jeff Sullivan
10:26
One of the neat things about having player graphs on all the pages is now it's possible to notice that almost literally everyone is streaky
10:27
There's no such thing as a consistent offensive performer. Except, I guess, Mike Trout. But everyone else has seasons that are an assembly of cold streaks and hot streaks
Jim Lonborg
10:31
If you were president of an expansion club, whom would you hire as your GM? I mean in some vaguely realistic scenario--obviously you're not going to outbid Ricketts for Theo.
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
I don't have a complete understanding of the landscape of potential candidates but I'd probably try to hire Mike Girsch from the Cardinals or something
Kristen
10:33
How much projection does Rougned Odor have left in him? Have to think that aggressiveness and brutal K:BB are going to hold him back from reaching the top tier of 2B'men.
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
He's still so very young, and he has a difficult profile to sustain. You can't look at him and not see someone like Jonathan Schoop, who has been a worse player than Odor has
10:34
He's been a little more disciplined in the past. He just learned how to convert his swing into the most home runs. The remaining projection, on the positive side, would say he'll mature into blending his skills, pushing that walk rate closer to 5-6% while maintaining a lot of the pop
Chaps
10:35
Hi Jeff. Do you think Quintana's inclusion in the White Sox fanfest means that he most likely won't be traded until (at least) the beginning of the season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
I keep thinking he's a July guy. I don't think the White Sox love what the Astros have to offer, and come July, there could be a different landscape of suitors, and differently-developed prospects
Roberto
10:35
Keith Law ranks the Braves Farm System #1 given its sheer number of super high floor arms and up the middle offensive and defensively minded prospects. What are your thoughts on the team's philosophy to stockpile high end arms versus focusing more on bats?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
I'm sure we've been over this before -- I prefer a bat-first approach, and I don't love a lot of the highly-touted young pitchers the Braves have picked up. They all have so much work to do, and you can never take anything for granted with any of these guys.
But the system is big on hype, and you figure some small number of the players will pan out. They're still going in the right direction. And, of course, it helps when you can steal a Dansby Swanson from time to time
Andrew
10:36
What do you make of the Profar-Dodgers rumors? What's that potential trade look like?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
I get why they're sniffing around, but I don't foresee a match here
Dan
10:37
How optimistic are you that Joey Gallo cut his K% below 25% and become a productive hitter for the Rangers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
25%? Never. That is never happening
He can still be a productive hitter around 30%, but I'd give him a 1-in-3 or 1-in-4 chance for this coming season
Matt
10:38
Who is the best backup catcher in the majors?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
I'm a pretty big fan of Austin Barnes, but it might be Christian Vazquez
Germ
10:39
A lot of talk the last couple days on Mussina and Schilling still not getting into the HOF. I mean, is it *that* surprising considering guys like Kevin Brown and David Cone couldn't even make it more than one year on the ballot? Is there a legitimate reason for pitchers not getting more HOF consideration?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
If memory serves, they've set an almost impossible bar for contemporary pitchers.
10:40
And that probably has something to do with pitchers not getting the credit that's been taken away from hitters for hitting in a high-offense era. Some of the best bats have been penalized, but pitchers haven't in turn been duly rewarded
Rexdale
10:40
The conventional wisdom has always been that if a team has a great young pitching prospect, they should try to turn him into a starter. But now that teams are valuing, and paying more for high leverage relievers, does it make sense for good young relievers and closers, like Roberto Osuna for example, to want to stay a reliever long term?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
I believe Dave just wrote about something like this for ESPN this very week!
JT
10:41
Steak fries are the worst potato product. Do you agree? Or do you enjoy raw starchy undercooked potatoes?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
I've had good steak fries. Maybe a baked potato? I've also had good baked potatoes, but never because of the potatoes themselves. A baked potato is only as good as the shit you put on top of it
Julio Pepper
10:42
6/70 for Betts? That sounds really cheap...
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
Everything sounds really cheap when four of the years are pre-FA
10:43
But that was pulled off the top of my head. Might not have adjusted enough for inflation, which could take Betts to 6/80 or 6/90
Robin
10:43
Do you think Edgar makes the final push into the HOF next year or will we be sweating things on his final year? With the ballot still packed, I'm afraid he might actually fall farther away
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
I'm leaning toward him following the Raines path almost perfectly. So he'll get in on the final push
Dbags
10:43
Is Jurickson Profar significantly better enough than Enrique Hernández/Chris Taylor for the prospect cost, roster spot, etc?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
I personally don't think so
Bryan from Boise
10:44
Dodgers and Twins trade talks for Dozier, which side gives in 1st. Both have what the other needs and there really does not seem like another landing place for Dozier at this time.
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
I can see the Dodgers getting annoyed and budging that very last bit they have to budge
Jaxon
10:44
If all Mets starters all healthy, can they win the East with how they and nationals are currently built?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
For sure. The Nationals are better, but it's not that huge of a canyon
EbenezerBatflip
10:45
Mike Trout's best years are ahead of/behind him? (choose one pls)
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
I can't not say behind him. There's just so little precedent for this
jon
10:47
Best positive outcome for CHC:
1) Baez 110 wRC+ over 500 PA
2) Heyward 100 wRC+ over 600 PA
3) Montgomery 30 starts with a FIP and xFIP under 4
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