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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/25/19
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Jeff Sullivan
9:03
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Friend
9:04
Opinions on Joe Ross vs Erick Fedde? Expectations?
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
I know it's a small sample and I know Ross was coming back from surgery, but over all appearances last year he only struck out 26 batters in 42.1 innings
7 in 16 in the majors
9:06
Real potential there for Ross to be a quality 4/5 but at the moment I'm a bigger fan of Fedde
9:07
Unsurprisingly, my view is that the Nationals will end up needing both of them
Frank
9:07
Do you think Dave is advocating for Harper or Machado?
Jeff Sullivan
9:08
No question in my mind that Dave would love to sign Machado. There is no single better fit in the world for the Padres than Machado. He is exactly what they need. But nothing about that Union-Tribune article the other day suggested the Padres were about to spend big for 2019
So Dave can want what he wants, but it wouldn't be his call
9:09
Hosmer is such a catastrophe. Just imagine where the Padres could be if they hadn't signed him
Ron
9:10
Left-handed pitchers are baseball's recipient demographic of affirmative action
Jeff Sullivan
9:10
It always amuses me when teams talk about the importance of balance. And look, I get it, you like to give different hitters different looks and different angles, but no one ever won a World Series because they had X number of left-handed pitchers
9:12
The 2004 Red Sox had Alan Embree
9:13
That's it. That was their southpaw
The 2017 Astros only had Dallas Keuchel and Tony Sipp
Drew
9:14
Aren't the Yankees basically the same team they were last year but with the addition of Paxton? I know they have been the most active but I don't think they have improved at all that much. Agreed?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
James Paxton is very good, DJ LeMahieu is better than Neil Walker, and last year's Yankees won 100 games
mmddyyyy
9:15
Which team’s window will shut the hardest when a specific player leaves?
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
It's Trout and the Angels, if we come to that point
9:16
There's just no one on his level
Drew
9:17
Is Nick Castellanos actually good?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
He's a very productive DH
You don't want to have to play him anywhere
9:18
He's basically fast-fashion J.D. Martinez. He's the Martinez knock-off you get at H&M
Dodger Depth TM
9:20
Would an offer of Kiebert Ruiz, Dustin May, and Gavin Lux be sufficient for the Marlins to move Realmuto? Whose getting the hose in this hypothetical?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
At first glance, that doesn't seem like a bad deal for either side. Worth noting it was exactly one year ago today the Marlins finally traded Christian Yelich
9:23
Maybe Russell Martin goes the other way since the Marlins would need a catcher, but whatever. If they insist on Barnes, then the Dodgers ask for something else, like, I don't know, Neidert?
Tugs
9:24
Given a starting 4 of Nelson, Chacin, Anderson, and Davies, who among Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes has the best shot at the #5 spot?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
I'd guess Woodruff out of camp, but they're definitely going to need and use all of them, and more
9:26
Peralta's going to need to do something to combat lefties. That'll be his 2019 project. Burnes has a chance to seize a rotation spot for the long haul but he'll need to be eased in
hooha
9:26
with Pollock going to the Dodgers, can the Phillies and Harper finally agree to a contract already?
Jeff Sullivan
9:27
They're going to sign Harper or Machado. It's a near-guarantee. But it's only half up to them
pelkey
9:28
the A's could use julio teheran, right? that shouldn't cost them too much, and he would at least be...something?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
Teheran would slightly lift the A's floor, I suppose, but he's not very good. The A's don't need him, specifically, because he's a No. 4 or 5 starter. Their rotation looks a lot more interesting if/when Luzardo and Puk are in the fold
Fartrell Cluggins
9:30
Do you see a change of scenery as enough for Sonny Gray to return to his A's level of production?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
Higher ERA, but similar peripherals. He'll be a No. 2 more than he'll be an ace. Hoping that Castillo takes over as their ace
Dodger Depth TM
9:33
Advances in player development over recent years seems to have anecdotally increased the hit rate of prospects. With that in mind, how much do you believe first round picks have increased in value from first round picks 20 years ago?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
Just for fun, looking at the first round from 2013, 66% of drafted players have reached the majors. Looking at the first round from 1993, 66% of drafted players reached the majors
9:34
Looking at the first round from 2003, 72% of drafted players reached the majors
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