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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/25/19
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Jeff Sullivan
9:35
This is obviously not close to rigorous enough, but I don't think the value of a first-rounder has gone up *that* much. For one thing, there are only so many major-league jobs to go around. And for another, it's possible, if not probable, that advances in player development have most benefited the guys who *aren't* blue-chippers
9:36
To me, anecdotally, this has become the era of pop-up prospects and overachievers. Again, that's unproven, but that's my sense
Jason N
9:37
Between Boras and national writers, lots of different and complicated ideas for fixing the players comp system.  More complicated usually = more unintended consequences.  What’s wrong with simple:  increase the cap and institute a meaningful salary floor?
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
A salary floor still might just incentivize small-budget operations to load up on bad contracts
9:39
Both of your ideas are useful, but I don't think they address the real issue -- you'd get more money spent on free agents, out of necessity, but you still wouldn't be paying players for when they're actually at their best
9:40
Salary minimums need to be higher, and either free agency should arrive sooner, or there need to be service-time-linked mandatory escalations
9:41
It still doesn't make a lot of sense to have the biggest salaries going to players 30+. Money needs to be shifted toward the front. Do that and some of the veterans would benefit anyway as a consequence
Vegan Man!
9:42
Do you think Stanton can/will cut his k% to something closer to his 2017 numbers (24%), or was 2017 an outlier for him? Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
2017 sure looks like the outlier in his record
Bork
9:42
Hello friend
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
Hello friend
radermecherbob@ymail.com
9:42
Jeff,whats your opinion on Harold Baines induction.
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
It's on the negative side of indifferent
Murmur
9:43
Even in this free agent market, it seems like the buzz around Marwin Gonzalez is really light. Why is that? It seems like just about every team could use him.
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
There was a ton of Marwin buzz earlier on, that simply died down. I'm going to guess his agent held out for a very large commitment, and so teams just moved on from there. We've seen a number of guys get signed on the idea that they'll become multi-positional players, like Lowrie, LeMahieu, etc
But also, keep in mind, according to public rumors there are two teams on Machado and either one or two teams on Harper. Neither can be true. There just might not be that many leaks
WILLLLLLLSON
9:45
I thought your article on the Reds was pretty good. I agree that the Brewers may step back unless they acquire some more pitching. The Reds front office said they still aren't done making moves and that anyone else they acquire will have term. What do you see them doing? What would you do?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
I think the obvious thing that's left is for them to get a center fielder. The guy I love for them is JBJ, but it's also entirely possible they determine that Senzel can cut it out of camp
9:47
Like everyone else, they could lengthen their bullpen, but maybe Stephenson or Romano really take to the role and tear it up
9:48
One minor downside of the Reds' additions: I was hoping to see more of Cody Reed this season. I still like him
Matt
9:48
Does the AJ Pollack signing indicate more moves are coming for the Dodgers?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
More moves are definitely coming for the Dodgers
9:49
Pederson or Verdugo are almost out of a job now. And the Realmuto rumors are legit
Murmur
9:49
Which 3 teams would be hurt most of the league changed its DL rules to what’s apparently been proposed?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
I don't have great data on this. Moving back to a 15-day DL from 10 isn't that significant of a jump. It feels like the Dodgers have abused the DL the most, so I guess they'd find themselves especially inconvenienced?
Bob Pollard
9:52
How much stock do you think teams put into how a free agent hits in their stadium? For example, while it's a small sample size, Pollock hasn't hit well at Dodger Stadium. They signed him, so they probably don't care, but is it any consideration? Do you think he'll be fine there?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Since 2012, AJ Pollock has a .653 OPS in Dodger Stadium. Since 2012, Dodgers pitchers have allowed a .646 OPS in Dodger Stadium. Pollock, then, has been a little better than average, adjusting for competition
9:54
I think teams definitely consider how a hitter's profile matches up with a ballpark, but at this point I doubt they think that much about someone's actual results in the same ballpark, because those numbers are subject to matchup concerns and small samples
Rod Becks Horseshoe Moustache
9:56
Melancon for Chatwood...does that make any sense for both teams
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Similar money, and while Melancon has a full no-trade it probably wouldn't be an obstacle. I can see why the Giants might be interested, but given Melancon's injury concerns, I'm not sure the Cubs would bite
9:58
I'd rather just give Chatwood a couple months of regular work in the bullpen and see how that goes
Airport Banana
9:59
Most likely landing spot for Moustakas?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Woof
Torn between the Brewers and the Padres. Brewers would have to move Shaw to second, and I doubt the Padres like Moustakas that much, but he can't be that expensive and the Padres will need a 3B eventually
Gumby Johnson
10:00
How good can Josh James be? #3 starter too aggressive?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
Not too aggressive. He's incredibly talented
Ryan
10:01
In adding A.J. Pollock to the Dodgers depth chart today Fangraphs lowered the Dodgers' projected WAR from 49.8 to 49.2. Does that pass your sniff test?
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
I don't think Pollock really made the Dodgers that much better on the surface. But he improves their depth and flexibility, which doesn't really show up much in the overall depth-charts numbers. The Dodgers' top-end projection probably isn't better by a lot. But their floor is even higher than it used to be
10:03
Our numbers don't do a great job of conveying who has a high floor, and who's super volatile
Charlie
10:03
Are the Phillies being overrated? I feel like the Phillies are overrated.
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