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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/27/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:27
I'll be damned
9:28
Murphy's power is legitimate. Lots of aggressive swing-and-miss in his game. Adequate defensively, but not above-average. I think he'll play less than Wolters, but he's going to be the No. 2
An interesting thought experiment: should the Rockies play Murphy most often at home, where maybe Coors can mitigate the downside of his over-aggressiveness? Figure Wolters won't really hit much anywhere, so it might not matter where he plays
Jon
9:29
Is Paxton more likely to overperform his projection by ~2 wins, or Felix more likely to underperform by ~2 wins?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
Lots more ways for a guy to be a 1-win pitcher than a 5-win pitcher
9:30
I love Paxton's upside, but Felix was literally a 1-win pitcher just last season
Erik
9:31
If one team currently projected to win fewer than 81 games breaks out and makes the playoffs, who will it be and how will it happen?
Jeff Sullivan
9:31
I'll say Orioles, because the bullpen holds up and Buck Showalter squeezes every last drop out of that roster again
9:32
In the NL, it's probably the Rockies, because the young pitching staff collectively takes an important step forward
Ryan
9:33
What do you think the upsides for Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez are? Are they close to their peak pitching abilities or is there still room to grow?
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
At Stroman's peak, he does almost everything: strikes, whiffs, groundballs. A less-perfect version of Roy Halladay. I think Sanchez has the slightly lower realistic ceiling, just because I don't think he would compete with Stroman's peak command
9:35
Stroman has more ways to conceivably miss bats. But it's not like we ever *really* know how good any given pitcher could be
Moltar
9:35
Jeff I've been fighting off a cold all week and it finally caught up with me but I'm still at work and everything is terrible. What are your favorite cold remedies? And are you worried about Lester pitching without Ross behind the plate?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
My favorite cold remedies: Cold-Eeze, a decongestant, and acting like a little bitch
9:37
I'm only very minorly concerned about Lester without Ross. They've had all offseason, if not longer, to prepare for this. And Lester has been a good pitcher for a long time. He'll throw strikes with anyone back there, and it's clear to me that teams just can't and won't fully exploit his yips
Zeke
9:38
Should Dyson be playing CF over Martin?
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
Probably, but Dyson has more experience in the corners, plus he's the new guy. It should make almost no difference
And Dyson won't be an everyday player anyhow. So this keeps Martin from bouncing around
Sterling Malory Chris Archer
9:39
Aaron Nola was just insanely good the first half of last year. He obviously got hurt when he had that horrendous stretch. If he's healthy, do you believe he can throw a sub 3 ERA?
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
I don't even know what to do with ERAs anymore since I can't predict how the baseballs will fly, but when Nola is healthy I'm absolutely in love. Healthy Nola has everything I like. Potential to be an underrated No. 1
Mike
9:40
You work (almost entirely) remotely, I think. Ever considered moving to, say, Patagonia and working from there?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
Yes
yes yes yes
At the end of the day I'm probably too much of a coward. Plus I like my community here and my girlfriend very much does *not* work remotely. So there are stumbling blocks
Maxamuz
9:41
What do you think of Sonny Gray this year? Will he return to cy young contender?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
It's a little bit like Nola. Injuries had an obvious effect on performance, and they both claim to be over their injuries now. There's no way for me to speak to what could happen in their arms. On talent, I like Nola and I like Gray. I just can't tell you what the odds are their arms remain intact. Problems in 2016 portend problems in 2017, right?
mtsw
9:44
Lots of talk of Orioles bringing Wieters back. Is there any price at which this would make sense for the O's?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
I mean, I like him a little bit better than Castillo and Joseph. Not a lot better. I don't know what Wieters' market is. He wouldn't be a substantial improvement, but I'm really not a Castillo fan
Mariners101
9:45
Do the Mariners have the best pitching staff in the AL West?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
No, because of the Astros
baby bull
9:46
who plays CF for Pittsburgh this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
Gut feeling says McCutchen, since a trade will remain a possibility
9:47
Obviously that's not their ideal alignment, but maybe they can move McCutchen around in terms of his positioning to mitigate his issues
Ben
9:47
I'm looking at the WAR graphs of J.R. Richard and Brandon Webb. Help!
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Baseball sucks
Mark
9:49
Could Rogers (or any other corporate owner) offer Otani lucrative ad deals that circumvent posting salary regulations?
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
I'm going to guess that would be interpreted as a circumvention of the rules, and so it would not be allowed
9:50
I don't know how MLB would be able to enforce these things, but Otani stands alone, so his situation will probably be heavily policed
Mike
9:51
What odds would you need to put down $100 on Kyle Seager making the HOF? Maybe a better question is how many seasons of phenomenal consistency does a player need to overcome never being the best player in the league (or even his position)?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
A player like Seager makes things pretty tough. He's been like an annual 4.5-win player for the last five years, but he's never been a monster. If he wants to have a shot, he basically needs to string together another couple identical five-year stretches
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