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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/27/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:54
I don't have much knowledge off the top of my head of what various peaks have looked like for Hall-of-Famers. I think players like Seager have probably been relatively under-recognized. Maybe very slightly a position-player comp for Mike Mussina.
9:55
But maybe he'll age like Adrian Beltre! Beltre hasn't had a single below-average season since 2001. At this point you can't ignore him
CarrotJuice
9:55
What are your thoughts on cFIP? A lot of the numbers seem wrong (Nola being a top 5 starting pitcher, Montgomery having almost the same cFIP (91) as Lester and Cueto, (90) etc.)
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
I can't remember the last time I used it. Not because I think it sucks or anything; I'm just comfortable with what we already have. I'm almost never looking to describe a pitcher with one single number, anyhow. And once you get into the weeds, you want to keep a lot of your metrics fairly basic and understandable so people don't get lost
baby bull
9:56
any chance Tom Murphys bat outweighs Tony Wolters Defense?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Sure, some chance. I wouldn't say great chance
Seven Costanza
9:58
Do you think a "not-quite-ready" pitcher would benefit more from being a team's 4th or 5th starter in the bigs, or benefit more from pitching in AAA until he's "ready"? Has there been any analysis done on this?(Thinking of the Reds signing Feldman and being linked to Arroyo, who would potentially take spots from C.Reed/R.Stephenson/A.Garrett/etc).
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
We can say this much: the Feldman signing implies the Reds like minor-league polish. Same with the Braves, given the Dickey/Colon/Garcia acquisitions. Those two teams apparently want certain pitchers to get more work in the high minors
10:00
I'm a big fan of the benefit of major-league experience -- there's no better setting to learn where you're good and where you need work. But if a guy clearly needs work, I think most of the time that's best accomplished in low-leverage situations. It's so difficult to fold in adjustments in the majors, where the best hitters in the world pounce on vulnerabilities. I lean toward wanting to promote pitchers only when I think they're ready, or close to it
Andrew
10:00
Bryce Harper (true talent) is _______% as good as Mike Trout (true talent)?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
99%. But that's relative to everyone, not just professional baseball players
10:01
By WAR, I'd estimate Trout around 9 and Harper around 6
Jim Lonborg
10:02
There was a nice piece in ESPN about Sam Travis, his return from ACL surgery, and his friendship with Schwarber. I'm familiar with the concerns--size, power--but what are the odds he could be the RS's best 1st base option by mid-season? It's not like the other options are so spectacular.
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
I mean, when the guy in your way is Mitch Moreland, you have to feel pretty good about your opportunity
10:03
Travis has yet to light a level on fire, offensively, and he didn't hit a lot in Triple-A. Plenty of work to be done. But if Travis has a very strong first half, well, Moreland sets a fairly low bar. Travis can conceivably clear it if he's 100%
Ken
10:05
I think the worst case scenario for Vogelbach is pretty easy to imagine. Who are his comps if he (realistically) peaks?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
In terms of player profile, the best case would be like a healthy Nick Johnson. A more achievable case would be like earlier-career Billy Butler. Doesn't add value anywhere but at the plate, but some walks and some power, with consistent contact
Andrew
10:07
Why do you not put a comma in "hello friend" but Bork does?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
Traditions are important
Chaps
10:07
Hi Jeff. Thanks for doing these chats.
With The Rays' recent Forsythe trade, do you think Lunhow will go back on his "no moves until Spring Training" comment and try to trade for one of the Rays' starting pitchers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
Well, I don't think the Rays are about to move Archer, and I don't think the others are worth a sense of urgency. Might as well see what you get from Morton/Fiers/maybe Musgrove and re-visit when you need to, if you need to
baby bull
10:10
I think Klentak & Middleton paid for the mistakes of Ruben & Montgomery in the Phillies org ranking, no one wants to be comparable to the WSOX front office. How are the Mets ranked so high though?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
Two more years of Harvey, five more of Syndergaard, three more of deGrom, five more of Matz. Probably a top-10 farm system. Recent success, projected success. Mets aren't in a bad spot
Eric Byrnes
10:12
Better hitter this year, without considering sample size: Tuffy Gosewisch or Mike Zunino?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Zunino
mtsw
10:14
Ervin Santana and Brian Dozier for Johnathan Schoop, Dylan Bundy, Brad Brach and a prospect: make sense for both sides? Seems like a potential way for the O's to maximize what looks like a two-year window of competitiveness.
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
Tough to think about on the fly, but my first sense is I don't think the Orioles would want to do it. I'm also not sure the Twins would want to do it, but from Baltimore's perspective, I'm not sure it's worth pushing in. Their situation is obviously going to be very tough, but they need some sort of link to the longer-term future. Bundy is something. And Brach would be a real loss in the bullpen
Will
10:15
More likely: top 3 CY finish for Harvey, or traded by the deadline?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
Didn't we do something like this last week?
The first one
10:16
Tough to see a situation where Harvey is good enough to be desirable, but the Mets are out of it
Erik
10:17
Is there any chance that the White Sox never intended to do a complete teardown, and that they think they can compete in 2018 with the players leftover plus Moncada, Kopech, Giolito, and Lopez? If those four pan out, how unreasonable of a hope would that be?
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
Last year, Eaton and Sale combined for 11.2 WAR, and the White Sox lost 84 games. Are those four going to be worth 11.2 WAR in two years?
10:19
The players left over are a good starting pitcher, a decent first baseman, a decent closer, and a good setup man. It's just not enough. The White Sox are doing the full-rebuild thing -- they're just not doing it all at once
10:21
The Brewers traded Gomez in July 2015. They didn't trade Lucroy until the deadline in 2016. In between, they made lots more rebuild-y moves. Teams have time, and the White Sox can control the midseason market again if they want
GPT
10:21
When is DRA coming to Fangraphs? Hurry up already. BP's stat pages suck.
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
All I can guess is soon. Dave would know better! He's more involved in the back-end stuff
That's why he's the managing editor, and I'm, I don't know, not that
Von Schloss
10:23
How good can the Marlins RP be with Barraclough, Phelps, Ziegler, Tazawa & Ramos? Can they pitch effectively enough to mitigate some of the weaknesses in the starting staff?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
Last year, as relievers, those five combined for a 66 ERA-, a 72 FIP-, and an 84 xFIP-. I don't think they're *that* good, and none of those guys is absolutely dominant, but it's a fairly strong group, albeit with some control issues. At its best, the Marlins bullpen would be top 10
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