Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/27/17
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Jeff Sullivan
10:24
They're going to need that
JT
10:25
Despite being an original franchise, the white sox have never made the playoffs 2 years in a row. Their franchise futility is pretty below the radar, even their badness has always played 2nd fiddle to the Cubs
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
Plus their relatively recent World Series win was completely forgettable!
10:26
All in all that was a pretty lame World Series stretch from 2004 - 2008: the winners won a combined 20 games and lost only two
Baseball is stupid
Theo
10:27
Do I have a trade up my sleeve for a young cost-controlled starter before Opening Day? I'm going to need 2 starting pitchers after this upcoming season. I'd rather not pay market for 2.
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
I bet you're in fairly consistent contact with the Rays, but signing Brett Anderson reduced some urgency for now
MPP
10:29
Can the Nationals really go into the season with no proven closer? They have all ready proven they are all in.David Robertson?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
When the Nationals entered 2014 with a proven closer, he eventually lost his job. When the Nationals went into 2016 with a proven closer, he eventually lost his job
10:30
Shawn Kelley has saved some games. And they can always make a move in the middle of the summer like they did with Melancon. David Robertson still feels kind of inevitable at some point
CarrotJuice
10:30
The Rockies doing "not the worst move" is an alien idea for me. Is it possible the Matrix has been changed?
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
I don't think the Rockies are stupid. They're just kind of quiet. No one really knows what to do with them
Dae-Ho Lee
10:31
Mitch Haniger- Matt Holliday 2.0? This time with better defense?
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
Matt Holliday has had a 50-WAR career
Mitch Haniger will probably not have a 50-WAR career
That being said, obviously, I'm on record as being a Haniger fan. And Holliday was never a top-100 prospect.
_David_
10:32
If a team made it a policy to never trade future for current value under any circumstances, wouldn't this efficiency gain accumulate over time and leave them better off, as prospects develop?
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
That's basically the Rays. They very seldom prioritize the shorter-term, and in almost every single move they come away with more surplus value. They're limited by, you know, never having any money to spend
Kelly
10:33
Stellini wrote an article about Quintana saying there would be a surcharge at the deadline. Not sure I agree on a player with his contract length, but possibly. There is also the risk of health and performance of SSS before the deadline. Could the Sox possibly be banking on this and do you agree with Stellini?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
In general I think the White Sox don't need to hurry to make a move now. Clearly it could backfire, but Quintana *feels* kind of safe. And they don't love the proposals they've gotten from the Astros. I think the benefit of waiting is that the group of suitors and prospects changes three or four months into the summer. Teams always need pitching. Right now, no team is desperate. So there's a benefit to patience
mtsw
10:35
Do sky-high Coors Field BABIPs mean that the Rockies should be shopping for more contact-oriented hitters? Seems straightforward that those guys are just much more valuable to the Rockies than to any other team.
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
On the other side of the coin, Coors Field also dramatically reduces strikeouts, so maybe the Rockies should load up on guys with strikeout problems, since they'll partially go away in Colorado?
10:36
I don't know who fits best. Hitters, basically. Hitters are great in Colorado
It's an open question as to which kind of hitter might suffer least when the Rockies go on the road
Dane
10:36
I also had Pujols in mind when reading your Murphy article. I wanted to see how close he came to the K% cutoff you used threshold, but my z-scores didn't match yours. They did match the interactive graph a commenter made and linked though. What gives?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
I used league-average marks for non-pitchers, and I calculated my z-scores among the qualified hitters each year. That latter decision probably explains the difference
Pete
10:37
Why don't the Dodgers get it over with, and trade Puig already? Is his market really THAT bad?
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
They'd probably like to see him reestablish himself as a dynamic player. It's a risk, but they could use the help in the meantime.
Very limited market for Puig this winter. Every single team out there is suspicious
_David_
10:38
Should the Mariners consider moving walls back to previous configuration due to the roster, or is that too expensive? I know they have that bar in left field so maybe it's not feasible...
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
No way they'd undo that
10:39
It would be an embarrassing look, first of all, and it's just a lot of work and money for the tiniest possible short-term benefit
Dae-Ho Lee
10:39
For the most part I love the moves that Dipoto made this year. The one that stands out as the obvious negative is Gallardo though. Talk me into liking that deal?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
Sorry, can't
kdallas
10:40
Yesterday, Paul raised an interesting point about Degrom's 2016 . . . namely, that he was sub-2.30 before his final 3 starts preceding the surgery (9+ ERA). Do you think Degrom's 2017 will be business as usual, ~180-190 IP?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
I'm not too concerned. I'm not surgeon or anything, but just based on how deGrom performed, the numbers were terrific and his fastball was no slower than it was when he was a breakout rookie. Big deGrom fan
Sterling Malory Chris Archer
10:41
Hypothetical: Mike Trout quits the game and wants to retire to a small Oregon town. He asks if he can rent a room from you. Your girlfriend says no. Which side do you take?
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
In this hypothetical, Portland is a small town in Oregon
10:43
I ask Trout if he's willing to pay an insanely high premium. If he is, we justify the annoyance with the money. If Trout is just going to pay regular market rate, well, we already don't rent this second bedroom, because it's my office. Why the heck would we want a roommate?
Get out of here, Mike Trout, you're in the way
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