Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/29/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:31
The numbers can reveal only so much, and Marcel already uses the most important ones. The next breakthrough would probably be projections that somehow fold in various scouting information
Al
9:32
With the Red Sox move to hire a former GM as their first base coach, should there be concern that the Red Sox front office may have too many cooks in the kitchen?
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
No, because the new cook is hanging out in the garage
Tony
9:32
I'm not your friend, guy.
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
Yes you are. You just don't realize it yet
Bork
9:32
See guys he said I was his friend, I've got a friend.
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
That's more like it
lunch
9:33
isnt the dh to the NL thing being pushed pretty hard by AL fans? a while back when posnanski polled people about it, he found that NL fans supported the pitcher hitting - http://joeposnanski.com/the-dh-pete-rose-and-other-stuff/.
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
Surprise: AL fans like what they're used to, and NL fans like what they're used to. We're all fans of baseball as it is so none of us see any significant need to change it
9:34
But it's not really being pushed by fans. It'll gain momentum within the industry because teams don't like wasting at-bats, and owners hate paying money to injured players and pitchers are getting more expensive by the day
RMR
9:34
Congrats on the nomination of your Trout article for the SABR research award.
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
Thank you. Can't imagine I win that category, but it's cool
Depressed In Denver
9:35
jeff: why are the rockies?
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
trials and tribulations
Ruby
9:36
Who are your top midseason trade candidates? Ross, Cashner, Cargo come to mind. Any chance Jose Fernandez goes back on the block, assuming the Marlins are out of it by July?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
Fernandez could definitely appear. Depends on just how bad the Marlins are but they're increasingly resigned to the reality that he's going to leave
9:37
expect to hear a bunch of McGee rumors
Mesoraco perhaps, definitely Bruce, Teheran...
9:38
Once again, it looks like there'll be only a few legitimately bad teams, so then you just have to open those rosters and figure out who's expendable
9:39
next year's would-be free-agent list is so mediocre there isn't a lot of rental talent to expect on the block
jtt
9:40
Lefties can't hit lefties but righties can usually hit righties. Is an all right hand lineup that big of a deal? It supposedly makes you more vulnerable to roogys...but righties face those guys all the time an it gets factored into their splits
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
I don't think it's that big of a deal. In theory the more unbalanced your lineup is, the easier it is for an opponent to plan for that, and maybe that leads to a small disadvantage in the playoffs, but I don't think it's a big problem
9:42
And, you know, what if the Tigers faced the Astros in the playoffs and the best Astros pitcher is Keuchel? And if they met the Dodgers in the World Series...
TKDC
9:43
Who is more likely to hit an inside the park home run in 2016, Zack Greinke or David Ortiz?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
Kurt Suzuki hit one a couple years ago so I'll go Ortiz just because of the extra plate appearances
but given similar opportunities, Greinke is more likely to just go for it because of his spirit for adventure
Given one trip to the plate, I'd give Greinke higher chances than Ortiz
Gumpa
9:45
What do you think of the Jays strategy of trusting their offense to carry their all 1-1.5 WAR (Stroman the exception) starting pitching staff? It seems like their floor and ceiling aren't that far apart.
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
It's obviously a little lopsided, but ultimately value is value and they just have more of it on the position-player side. Can't really blame them for mostly staying away from the expensive pitchers this winter. Happ is fine, Estrada is fine, Chavez is fine, and the bullpen should be pretty strong. They also know they could conceivably add midseason if they need to
a eskpert
9:47
Scott Boras: if he was GM, would he be better than average?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
People would probably hate working for him
Jonas
9:47
Do the Jays contend for the division again in 2016?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
No question
John
9:48
What might a Nats/Brewers trade involving Lucroy look like? Presumably, Giolito's off the table.
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
Ramos/Taylor/Cole? That's just a guess on my part
JKD
9:49
I really don't understand all the speculation about Desmond as an OF - his bat profiles kind of terrifyingly in its decline so far, but he's actually a GOOD shortstop, and has the kind of physical profile that says he'll be able to stay there - or at worst, 3B - for a while longer. If you move him to the OF full-time, even taking the mid-point of the last two years at a 96 wRC+ is unplayable for anything but CF. He's a good shortstop! He makes errors in bunches but offsets that by then not making errors for weeks AND getting to lots of balls other players can't. Just sign him to play SS, strike out a lot and hit the occasional HR! He'll be fine.
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
I don't think anyone questions that Desmond is a capable shortstop. But he's the one who's marketed himself as a potentially versatile player. Now, in part he's just done that to try to expand his own market because this was the wrong offseason to be an available non-elite SS. But it's an interesting thought, if Desmond could prove himself to handle multiple positions. Teams increasingly love versatility, and Desmond is obviously quite the athlete
9:51
It probably doesn't benefit someone to take SS Desmond and make him, say, OF Desmond. But what if you could have 2B/SS/3B/CF Desmond? Then he's a worse offensive Ben Zobrist and EVERYONE wanted Ben Zobrist
Charlie
9:51
You think the Astros have the necessary rotation depth to get through the season and win the West?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
The team looks really good to me, and if something goes wrong, they have the resources to add. They definitely have enough depth for the first few months
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