Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/29/16
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Jeff Sullivan
10:13
I think I'd rank Gomez ahead of Altuve
AJ Preller
10:15
I know you're huge on Jonathan Lucroy. If you were a GM, based on what's knowable today about his recovery from last year, would you give up more for him in trade than you would for Derek Norris? (Asking for a friend.)
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
I think it would be comparable. With Norris, he's younger and you get one extra year of control, but I trust Lucroy more with the defensive-side responsibilities. And last year Norris' bat went in the wrong direction. So, yeah, for me they would require about the same package
Ross
10:16
Do you think Marte is the long term answer at SS? What do you project him as long term?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
I don't, but I think he's the two-year answer at SS
B.B. Rodriguez
10:17
When will people realize Coors Field isn't that big of an issue. The Rockies Front office is the issue. It's pretty obvious a smart front office could build a decent team there.
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
Is that actually in any way obvious? And how do you distinguish between FO influence and ownership influence?
Ross
10:17
Has Seager reached his ceiling or do you think he has a level we haven't seen yet?
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
Kyle is maxed out, and Corey isn't
Codes
10:18
Rymer Liriano's scouting report with Fangraphs has average or above average future values on 5/6 categories yet his overall future value is listed as 45, below average. How does this make sense?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
Firstly, that's a year old now. But the concerns were that Liriano struggles to make consistent contact and he profiles best as a corner OF. So the most likely outcome there would be a modestly powerful reserve
Ross
10:20
Percent likeliness that Taijuan Walker becomes an ace? 2 or 3? Back end innings eater?
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
Maybe he's like 10-15% ace. He's already a No. 3 who looks like a borderline No. 2.
Ruby
10:21
Yeah, what's with all these durn opt-outs? I understand 'em, but I also think they're stupid and the worst. How long before every contract >3 years includes one?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
There's nothing wrong with them in theory. They just make contract analysis more complicated than we like. That's annoying. For the time being they seem like a useful way to slightly keep costs down with regard to the luxury tax
Justin
10:22
Of the Fangraphs staff/contributors who do NOT currently chat, who do you think would make for the most interesting chat session?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
Well the answer has to be Carson, but there's a difference between interesting and good
Jose Vidro
10:24
Purely hypothetical. Let's say we get rid of the American League and national league. Everyone has a DH. We have 3 big divisions. How does that change the playoff picture? Who comes out on top now?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
I feel like you'd want to have four divisions, with two new teams being folded in.
10:26
You could have the four winners guaranteed to advance to the first series round. And then the remaining eight play a one-game playoff, narrowing down to four, and so on
Nick
10:26
Avisail Garcia is reportedly in the best shape of his life. When were you in the best shape of your life?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
Last July
Mike
10:27
Hey Jeff - at 34 I went back to school to pursue biochemistry and molecular biology. It was daunting sure, but 2.5 years in and I am working in a genetics lab. I'm just sharing in case you ever want to become the volcano expert we all know you to be. It's kind of fun, different responsibilities, less external world....
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
Were you sent here by my mom?
Jon
10:27
Will we eventually get to the point where the umpires are completely replaced by robots and algorithms, and each team fields an entirely separate offense and defense? Sometimes it seems like they take baby steps towards this every few years (video review, Questec, DH in AL and now possibly NL, etc)
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
Let's put it this way: by the time baseball changes that much, the lot of us will be dead
Ross
10:28
Do the Mariners have a legit difference maker in their minor league system? If so who?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
I get the feeling that the new player-development system will be able to restore some off-track careers. Like, Alex Jackson is 20 years old. Even D.J. Peterson could emerge quickly if he figures something out
Ross
10:30
Who would you predict the M's biggest breakout player this year is? Biggest bust?
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
I could see a starting pitcher really disappointing, like Walker, Paxton, or Miley. Marte could end up with a .600 OPS. On the flip side, I'm actually kind of excited to see what Mike Zunino looks like in eight months
BK
10:31
If and when the Red Sox build a new stadium, are you in favor of another Green Monster?
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
Sure, but I'm in no way invested in this so there's no personal downside to making the wrong decision
If I had to guess, then down the road when the Red Sox play in a new park, I think they'll have a more normal field, but there will be a Green Monster replica or reference somewhere
10:32
maybe behind the left field fence
They could also compromise and have a partial Green Monster with a smaller height
Sandy Balderson
10:32
I don't quite understand the opposition to implementing the DH in the NL? Is it purely due to tradition?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
It's what half the fans are used to
That's literally all
t
10:33
So you maybe saw the Phillies hired a new director of baseball research and development with a not-entirely-baseball analytics background. Can you think of any teams that changed the direction of their front office so much recently? I mean, the old GM goes to coaching on the field and the new front office has a lot of guys with enthusiasm to learn from data, which Amaro seemed, uh, less enthusiastic about I guess.
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
Phillies biggest change in that direction, with the Mariners runner-up. Red Sox biggest change in the opposite direction
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