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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/4/19
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Will
9:58
are Edwin's declining peripherals a cause for concern for a prospective new club?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
Yes, but that's just tied into the fact he's going into his age-36 season. He's worse now
Bort
9:59
How many Vogelbombs do you predict we'll see in 2019?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
I'll say ten. Not convinced yet they'll give him regular playing time
Brady Quinn
9:59
Rays downsizing Tropicana has to be disheartening for MLB. Thoughts?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
This just shines another light on a familiar and preexisting problem. I don't think we learn anything new from this. They just need to get out of there. Everybody knows it
Rox Fan
10:01
Please tell me that Daniel Murphy won't be the extent of the upgrade to the Rockies' offense.
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
Well, there should also be a few hundred more plate appearances for David Dahl, and Gerardo Parra is being replaced by Raimel Tapia or something
10:02
But, boy, you'd like to see them get Yasmani Grandal
Derek
10:02
What impact does the signing of Troy Tulowitzki have on the impact of the Yankees signing Manny Machado?
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
Almost zero
10:03
If the Yankees want Machado, they wouldn't work against their own interests in bringing aboard a veteran shortstop who didn't play at all in 2018. They have to be independent moves
LPFan
10:04
Do players who debut very early (late teens-early 20s) have different peak periods or longer than others?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
I can't find any relevant research at the moment, but I believe the early debuters tend to have more impressive overall careers. And it would make sense if they had slightly earlier peaks, since an early promotion would seem to select for someone who's close to maxing out
jas
10:05
Chances the Padres sign Marwin Gonzalez or Moustakas?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
I think pretty low. I suspect their aiming younger
PD
10:05
How much of the delay in Machado/Harper's signing is due to them being unlikable?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
Zero
10:06
When it comes to some of the best players in the world, nobody cares about that
OddBall Herrera
10:07
Welcome to an hour of people asking when/where Machado and Harper are going to sign, just to spite you
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
The good news is I get to select which questions I answer!
Jay
10:08
If you were the Padres when would you call up Tatis?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
Slow start in 2017, slow start in 2018, no experience in Triple-A. I'd be looking around the usual Super-Two cutoff in the middle of June or whenever it is
Nick Mar - Cake is Good
10:11
Should the Dodgers spend their potential Harper money (freed up with Reds deal) to sign Pollock a reliever?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
Just sign Harper
I know that's easy for me to say
10:12
I think the Dodgers tend to be pretty good about finding quality relievers for cheap. Don't need to pay more FA prices. They could also use a short-term catcher, and Cervelli fits well
But they should just sign Harper. I don't care if it makes them super left-handed
Mark
10:13
On a very basic high level, is it fair for a fan like me to try to assess fair trade value using WAR by saying player A is a 3-WAR player under control for 2 years = 6 WAR, so a team trading for them would need to come up with somewhere around 6-WAR in a trade, let's say a player who is worth 2-WAR for 3 years.  Again at a very basic, general guestimate level.
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
Not a terrible starting point, but you also need to figure out a way to add in the salary factor, since it's not players who get traded -- it's players, along with their contracts
10:14
I wish there were some way to humanize the word "asset" because that's what we're dealing with
Players are traded as assets, but it also sucks to just put it in those terms
Jake
10:17
Why does free agency take so much longer to develop in baseball than in other sports? We didn’t have to wait several months to find out where John Tavares and LeBron James were signing. Most of the big players in other sports sign somewhere in the first week of free agency
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
Baseball doesn't have a fixed salary cap -- no matter what you make of the competitive-balance tax -- and there aren't terms like restricted and unrestricted free agents
10:18
There's no such thing as a maximum contract, and on top of that, the baseball offseason is also just longer
10:19
NHL free agency opens in July and training camp starts in September. MLB free agency opens in November and spring training starts in February. That's an extra month of space
10:20
Reality is even more complicated than all of that, but I wouldn't go so far as to say it's even a bad thing. I like how the baseball offseason is more spread out. Maybe that's just my writer-centric perspective
Mandy is 92% Fresh
10:20
Steamer has Brad Keller with a 4.58 ERA and FIP.  Take the under?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
I'll take the under, but I don't think he's great
Appa Yip Yip
10:22
Does WAR even work for catchers? Is too much of what they do currently unquantifiable, or are most Major league catchers right now really just not much better than randomly generated quad a guy (who is no doubt a lovely person)?
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