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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 1/4/19
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Jeff Sullivan
10:23
League-wide WAR for catchers: 52
League-wide WAR for first basemen: 47
There are certainly elements of being a catcher that aren't easy to quantify. Some of those elements are missing. But WAR for catchers isn't broken -- you just have to remember everything comes with error bars
v2micca
10:24
Feels like a game of chicken right now between the Marlins and potential suiters for JT Realmuto.  Which happens first, a team caves to the Marlins demands, or the Marlins drop the asking price?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
The Marlins didn't agree to trade Christian Yelich last offseason until January 25. At the time that seemed like a basically fair deal
10:25
That date is three weeks away from today
I think the answer is in the middle -- both sides are going to budge. That's how negotiations almost always go, but teams won't be able to ignore that the Marlins are going to trade the best catcher in baseball
Mike
10:26
Any chance the Astros are interested in Sonny Gray?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
Yep
JKD
10:28
Let's say Harper really does re-sign with the Nats. Is Adam Eaton plus Luis Garcia enough to get Cleveland listening on Kluber?
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
Nope
Michael
10:29
Perhaps we could discuss WHY Harper and Machado are going to sign? Are they happy doing what they do, or trapped in this life by the golden handcuffs of immense wealth? Perhaps Harper would be happier opening that hamburger stand he's always talking about?
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
If I were young and fit and super good I'd think about putting myself out there for a monster one-year contract. Then after making like $45-50 million I'd announce my retirement and move to the mountains
10:31
Yeah, you give like half of that money to the government. But you also have everything you earned before, and you don't need to maintain that high a cost of living. Freedom and wealth before ever turning 30!
10:32
Of course, anyone with that sort of perspective wouldn't be driven enough to be great at baseball to be great at baseball
IsIt2015Yet?!
10:33
Dan mentioned the other day that Bregman's projections and decent defense last year could make Correa trade-able for the Astros. I can think of a team who's present roster lines up pretty well who'd otherwise be a "contender" if they didn't get .2 fWAR from SS last year: The Pittsburgh Pirates. Think Keller, Cruz, Swaggerty, Tucker, and Brubaker would make a good base for a package for Correa coming off a down year with 3 years left? 4 of Pitt's top 5 and a pitcher who should be ready for ML in 2019.
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
I don't think the Pirates are the kind of team that should be making further consolidation trades like the Archer move. That one ultimately set them back
10:34
I also wonder if the Astros figure they're so good at player development they should just keep their superstars and turn 40-FV prospects into 50-FV prospects
10:35
Correa, though, would be an interesting target for the Padres...
Kyle
10:35
What's your outlook on the Mets? BVW claims their internal models have them projected as a high 80s win team, which I think is very realistic if the rotation stays healthy (which has been said since 2015).
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Mid-80s. Still short a center fielder. Competitive ballclub to be sure, but also in a tough division with only one bad team
Don't love the rotation-depth picture behind the obvious studs
Tyler
10:38
Why is Berkman getting so little HOF support?  Any one who voted for Vlad should be voting for Berkman.  If anything Berkman had the better peak and overall WAR numbers.
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
That, of course, doesn't explain why Berkman is like 70 points below where Guerrero was on his first ballot
10:41
Guerrero did wind up with 1200 more plate appearances. And he's just the more "memorable" player. A lot of Berkman's value was tied up in his ability to draw walks, which has never been that sexy for voters
10:42
Guerrero cleared 2500 hits; Berkman didn't reach 2000. Guerrero hit 449 homers; Berkman didn't reach 400. Guerrero stole 181 bases; Berkman didn't reach 100
Berkman isn't really that much of a less-deserving candidate, but the ballot now is so crowded. Oh well
Doug
10:42
Is Dallas Keuchel being underrated because he’s a pitch-to-contact guy? Been durable, and I thought I read his fb velocity was its best since 2015 last year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
The short answer is yes
But for a durable pitcher, 2016 ended with a shoulder injury, and he had two stints on the DL in 2017
10:45
He's coming off his worst strikeout rate since 2012, and he's 31 years old
Keuchel's contact rate just went up six points. He lets the ball get put in play. The upside here is limited, so that's why you're not hearing all that much about him
GSon
10:47
Jefry Rodriguez acquired from the Nationals: Does he have more than a token chance to become a late inning/high leverage addition to the Indians pen?
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
I like the curve enough, but his location has a ways to go. Could potentially be one of those guys who makes a sudden improvement if thrust full-time into a reliever role
Better than a token chance, in other words
Southi
10:49
If Atlanta doesn't sign a free agent outfielder or trade for one, is there a chance they may give Austin Riley a crash course thus spring to see if he is even a feasible option in right?  He surely has the arm for the position, I would just be worried about his speed and mobility.
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
There was already preexisting talk about him getting some OF reps in spring training. I expect them to address the outfield eventually, but I also think we'll see Riley start to move around if he isn't traded
Klenny
10:50
whats the phillies next *big* move now? is there one left?
Jeff Sullivan
10:51
We all know what the possible answers are here, but there are two premium free agents, and more than two potential destinations
Klenny
10:51
Does trading Neshek, Hunter, Morgan, Nicasio or Cesar Hernandez to open up roster spots for cheaper/younger options make sense or just roll with all the depth
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