Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/14/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:43
They look good for at least next season, but a lot is going to depend on whether Giolito and Lopez are major-league starters
Seff Jullivan
9:43
Happy Friday Jeff. What would you say was the reason for Bryce Harper's "down year" after a godly season before. Was is just him being pitched around? Or was there something in his swing?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
Unsurprisingly, I think it was a few things. I do think Harper was somewhat banged up, despite all their denials. I do think Harper had some issues trying to adjust to being "the guy," frequently getting pitched around. And then there's just statistical regression -- based on Harper's batted balls in 2015, I believe that he greatly over-achieved.
I look for a healthy Harper in 2017 to be something like a six-win player
libre
9:44
Is it weird to still think "the Dodgers could really use another starting pitcher?"
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
I don't think that's weird. I think making clothes out of lettuce is weird.
Erik
9:45
True or False: the NLDS will crown the true best team in baseball, even if the AL team pulls an upset in the World Series.
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
The Cubs are the best team in baseball
The best team this year is about as clear as it's ever been
Nietsniew
9:46
DC sports strikes again, sadness prevails. DC is the most underratedly painful city. I know underratedly is not a word I'm just sad.
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
On the plus side, Cleveland finally won. You can never write anything off
I'm good friends with Matthew Kory, who lives nearby, and he's a big DC football and Capitals fan. So I've been along for the ride these last few years
9:47
The Capitals are just such a bummer
Jack
9:47
do you think the miller/jansen recent usage will actually revolutionize closer/relief ace usage? i have a feeling managers will still be reluctant to use their closers like this
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
Some of them will definitely be reluctant, and during the regular season, it even almost makes sense -- games in June lack the same sort of urgency. Players prefer to know their roles on any given day, and it would be hard on the heart to not know when you're possibly going to pitch.
9:49
That being said, this is all symptomatic of a transition that is taking place. Miller is the better indication than how Jansen was used in a single Game 5. Teams know relievers haven't been used optimally, and, they're going to get there, no matter what
libre
9:49
Does Ross Stripling pitch in the Dodgers' postseason?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
He already has
Twice!
CamdenWarehouse
9:51
Kershaw only threw 7 pitches. That really shouldn't impact his schedule, should it?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
Preparing for such a stressful game appearance is very different from throwing a casual bullpen
It's more physically and mentally draining
Caldwell
9:52
What's your take on reverse platoon splits? Do you think a right-handed batter like Justin Turner (career .299/.359/.473 vRHP, .247/.324/.371 vLHP) can really be better at hitting balls breaking away from him or is it just statistical noise?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Since Turner "got good," he hasn't had a huge reverse split, and historically speaking, these things are almost always flukes. Turner probably has a smaller natural split than the average hitter, but I still think his true talent, so to speak, has him being better against lefties
I'm a far bigger believer in reverse splits for pitchers, since that can just have to do with their repertoires or arm slots
Matt
9:53
With the Dodgers lineup, should the Cubs consider giving Montgomery a start in place of Lackey?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
I don't think so, but I do think they should be aggressive with Montgomery out of the bullpen
Bad Joker
9:54
Tim Tebow playing baseball intrigues me. He shows a lot of power. I don't think he will steal much though, he is a good Christian.
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
That *is* a bad joke!
libre
9:54
The Cubs are even more massive favorites over the Dodgers given the Dodgers just had to lean really hard on everyone (except for Ross Stripling)?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
This works to the Cubs' benefit, yes. But they are not and never will be massive favorites
J
9:55
MVP for last night's game? Kershaw led in WPA but my vote goes to Kenley.
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
I'm tempted to say Turner, because of the triple and also the 13-pitch plate appearance, but it should probably be Jansen
libre
9:56
How was your week? Is Portland getting hit by the same storm that Seattle is?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
I think we're getting it a little "better" than areas further north, but the same storms are cycling through and it started getting miserable Wednesday night
If I disappear from FanGraphs for several days it's because we've lost power
Stevil
9:57
I'm counting 12 teams likely (or absolutely) in need of a first baseman next season. Free agency offers little, so could we see teams, such as the Pirates, sell higher than we might expect?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
Mark Trumbo will count as a 1B. Many teams will consider Edwin Encarnacion as a 1B
I don't think we're going to see some first-base market inflation. That doesn't mean Bell couldn't be turned into something shiny for other reasons
libre
9:59
Why aren't storms as interesting to you as volcanoes?
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