Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/14/16
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Jeff Sullivan
10:00
Volcanoes are semi-permanent and tangible. I can spend time on them. I can hike on them and climb up them. I can look at them and take beautiful pictures. I can learn about millions of years of physical history. Storms just try to make my clothes wet.
senpaisanto
10:00
not to be a dick, but i was sorta hoping chooch had gotten concussed by that late foul-tip - would've been amazeballs to see puig catching kershaw
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
I don't think that makes you a dick
10:01
In some way I think we were all wanting that
Erik
10:01
Why do you think the FanGraphs odds prefer the Dodgers to the Cubs, despite the Cubs performing far better by normal record, Pythagorean record, and BaseRuns (all between 12 and 18 games better)?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
Touched on this earlier, but just to say it again, it's mostly because our depth charts have Kershaw/Hill throwing so many innings. They'll be less available moving forward in reality
The Decadent Moose
10:01
Moving forward with a young pitcher, do you take someone with impeccable control with a low 90s fastball, i.e. Jharel Cotton (7.06 K/9 and 1.23 BB/9) or someone with incredible stuff, i.e. Alex Reyes (10.17 K/9 and 4.50 BB/9)? How effectively can teams develop control?
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
I'm a bigger fan of someone who can locate. Improvements like what we've seen with Aaron Sanchez are uncommon. I think pitchers are more likely to learn a new pitch than to learn to throw the ball where they want
J
10:02
If Scherzer loses the CY Young to Kershaw as well does he go full super villain?
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
No, he is nice
Seth Moko
10:03
Not to judge a team by a postseason series, but what do you think the Nats will do in terms of moves and retooling?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
They probably need a catcher, and they're going to have to deal with the bullpen again if/when Melancon leaves as a free agent.
For the most part, the Nationals remain in a good place
Tommy Lasordid
10:04
Last night's game: a harmonic conversion of front office vision, manager game planning and player performance? Loved it!
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
It was such a perfect game for baseball dorks
Absolutely no way I could convey how awesome that was to my girlfriend or mom
Mike M
10:05
If the Cubs offer Baez, Schwarber, Soler, Montgomery, Grimm, CJ Edwards and a prospect for Trout, who says no?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
This is too big for me to mentally calculate
I think the answer is still the Angels, but you're...getting...close?
Maybe you're even there. I'm not sure. You'd need a pretty damn optimistic Schwarber valuation
klof
10:06
The Kershaw move looks good because it worked and didn't require a lot of pitches, but what was the plan if Kershaw was at 25 pitches and gave up the tying run? Now the Dodgers had no elite pitchers and would have burned both Jansen and Kershaw.
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
Well they wouldn't have "burned" them -- they would've used them to throw like three extremely high-leverage innings
Then they'd get into Baez and everyone else. Which the Dodgers wouldn't want, but at some point every team runs out of its best options
Bob Pollard
10:07
What would you say is the best metric to use when saying "X pitcher stinks/'X pitcher is good"? I used ERA to point out that maybe Jon Gray didn't pitch all that well this season and a guy in my fantasy league kind of mocked me. So what metric should I use? Is ERA really too old-school now?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
FIP (or FIP-) is the best starting point. It definitely doesn't do everything, but it'll point you in the right direction
Jeff
10:07
What were your thoughts on Dusty's bullpen usage in Game 5? It seemed like he was trying to be clever, but I couldn't figure out why he was creating the matchups he was creating.
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
One thing I definitely don't understand from this series: how often Marc Rzepczynski pitched to right-handed hitters. Marc Rzepczynski SUCKS against right-handed hitters.
His true talent is quite literally like a .400 OBP
Tommy Lasordid
10:08
Surprise Dodger starter in NL finals: Alex Wood
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
I think Brock Stewart is more likely. Wood hasn't thrown more than 20 pitches in a game since the end of May
Javy Baez
10:09
Where do I play next season? 2B, Utility or for someone else?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
Mostly 2B
Mike M
10:10
Where is Dexter Fowler next April?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
The Rangers most clearly need a CF, but I think they have their hopes built up around returning Desmond or Gomez
Wonder if you might see him end up in a corner for the Mariners
Hi
10:12
Dave mentioned HITF/X the other day. He said that there were some advanced stats that front offices had that are not known to the public yet. Is that true? If so, what are some examples?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Well they had HITf/x for years and that was never public
also COMMANDf/x, which got even less attention, and that was never public
Prich
10:13
A more fascinating study in managers: Dusty or Buck? Both are obviously great at getting the most out of their guys and do great work around the year, but in-game decisions... Hoo Boy!
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
I feel like Showalter usually makes pretty good in-game decisions. Maybe I'm wrong, but the sense I get is he's being remembered for one bad call, even though his body of work looks better
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