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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/19/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:29
He's got almost $100 million coming to him over the next three years, plus a $2-million bonus if he's traded. Granted, some of that money is deferred for a few years
9:30
The upside: Greinke is still good, and he seems durable. Plus my hunch is that he's a good influence
9:31
I suspect the consensus is also that he's likely to age pretty well
I think Greinke still has slightly positive trade value. The shorter-term commitment helps. But there's a limited market of teams that could absorb that kind of single-player commitment. Obviously, if Arizona paid him down a little bit, moving him would get easier
Russell
9:32
Off the teams that made the postseason this year who do you think will struggle most next year to get there again?
Jeff Sullivan
9:32
It feels like it's almost cheating to point to the Rockies
9:33
I think it's going to be tough for the Braves, assuming the Phillies spend and assuming the Nationals don't go quietly
The A's aren't likely to run away with WC2
Lilith
9:34
Most likely 90-loss team from this year to get into the playoffs in 2019?
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
Oof
They all suck!
9:35
Guess I'll go with the Padres. You can never count out A.J. Preller to try to act aggressive
The Reds almost have enough of the ingredients, but I still just don't trust them to make the most of their resources
Bob Pollard's No Hitter
9:36
With the Cards essentially saying/without saying they're looking for a LH power hitter that either fits 3B or RF and failing a Bryce Harper sign, is Gallo someone they would look at?  Team control, 24, led in barrels, 2nd in Avg EV, some positional versatility despite his best wishes, etc.  Do you think there is possibly more in there w/r/t bat to ball skills or is he what he is at this point?
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
I'm not sure the Cardinals would want to double up on Tyler O'Neill, if that makes sense
9:37
And with Gallo still having four years of control, I think the Rangers remain inclined to keep him and watch for further upside
Nothing here is impossible and Gallo is a better defender than many people think, but I don't see a perfect match
Weenie
9:40
You wrote two articles earlier about the Mariners' pace to be the luckiest W/L team in recent baseball history. How did they finish in regards to that?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
I don't have all the data in front of me, but it doesn't look like they finished in first -- more like top-five or top-ten all time
The Mariners finished 12 wins better than their Pythagorean record
The same was true of the 2008 Angels
9:43
The Mariners also finished eight wins better than their BaseRuns record, although the Red Sox wound up at +9!
The Mariners' magic was spoiled by a very normal-looking month of September
CarlC
9:44
If the "opener" lowers salaries for SPs and old free agents arent getting good offers anymore, will payrolls eventually go down, or just shift around so  megastars and good bullpen pieces make more than before?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
Now, for one thing, the opener is still very new and not particularly widespread. Far too early for the opener to have any real effect on the market. I mean, it's pretty much exclusive to the Rays in terms of longer-term implementation, and how often were the Rays spending money on starting pitchers anyway?
9:47
If the opener does continue to spread, then certainly you would expect the people who used to be back-of-the-rotation starters to earn less. It seems like it would follow that resources would be poured more heavily into the bullpen and the bulk guys
(Those bulk guys might turn out to be the very starters who are no longer starting)
9:48
No matter what, one thing is almost undeniably true: the free-agent market is changing. It's not going back. Teams know more than ever. So the players need to negotiate more money at the start of careers. The league minimum needs to be much higher, at the very least
Lunar verLander
9:51
You think T-Mobile (or whoever is doing the donations for every HR hit) donated money on the controversial HR on Wednesday night?
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
Not a chance!
9:52
You're expecting corporate charity?
There was no home run. Ergo, there is no money
Matt O
9:53
I'm a Red Sox fan, so this was a good week.  Highly entertaining series, and Game 4 was one for the ages.  Though I'm pretty sure that this postseason Kimbrel has taken years off my life.
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
I'm happy for the Red Sox, but tremendously disappointed that this series, of all series, couldn't go seven
9:54
You almost never see a matchup between teams this good. We deserved better than a 4-to-1 conclusion
Cave Dameron
9:56
Is getting picked off factored into the baserunning metrics? I didn't know if it counted as a caught stealing.
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
So, on the one hand, it seems like it would have to be counted, right? It's tracked. It's all right there. It's an obvious negative
On the other hand, the baserunning metrics are complicated and I don't know what the formulas are
10:00
Tommy Pham was 15-for-22 stealing bases. He finished with a wSB of -0.2. He was picked off five times
Jose Iglesias was 15-for-21 stealing bases. He finished with a wSB of +0.3. He was picked off zero times
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