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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/19/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:01
It would appear that, if pickoffs are counted, they must be counted in UBR
Are they in there? I'm not sure!
10:02
Here's our UBR primer. Don't see pick-offs in there https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ultimate-base-running-primer/
But it's an MGL statistic, so it's a question best asked of him
Lunar verLander
10:03
I don't watch a lot of NL games; when pitchers reach base, do they talk with the first basemen as much as when hitters reach first base? I'd imagine that hitters on opposing teams would be friendlier than pitchers would be.
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
I can genuinely say I've never thought about this before
And now I'm going to be watching for it
Have to go to the archives to see how talkative Kershaw was after drawing his walks!
10:04
Pitchers might be inclined to be *more* talkative since they're far less likely to have to do actual strategic baserunning
Lilith
10:05
What would you guess is going to be the next market inefficiency that some team taps into (in team building, not in-game strategy like the opener), to build a contender on the cheap?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
This is just a guess, but I wonder if we're going to cycle back to defense again, now that in theory teams can design better defensive metrics than ever with the Statcast outputs
Other than that, I do think it's sort of related to the opener -- teams short on pitching might opt to forego traditional rotations entirely and focus on just cycling through a bunch of live arms who can throw for 2-3 innings. A decent pitching staff could emerge out of nothing
10:07
Opportunity there for the Orioles to try it out. Ditto the Royals. I mean, they're not going to contend any time soon, but they don't need to try to develop five starters if they don't want to
Seff Jullivan
10:07
If the Dodgers win today, has the NLCS MVP already been chosen?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
No?
Anthony
10:08
How confident are you in Kimbrel's ability to bounce back? The stuff still seems ok, but his command right now really sucks.
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
Kimbrel made a little mechanical tweak between G4 and G5 appearances -- he lowered his hands in his set position, because it was suggested he was tipping his pitches
10:09
I don't know if he actually WAS tipping his pitches; I didn't have enough time this morning to really dig into the video. And I doubt that would be everything anyway
But a big part of what's seemed like bad command has been hitters just not swinging at his breaking ball. Usually, they're happy to chase that pitch. It just wasn't happening, outside of that one Giancarlo Stanton strikeout
As long as Kimbrel is throwing 98, I think he's the best reliever the Red Sox have. And I like Matt Barnes
Matt
10:11
A lot has already been discussed about CHC's need to revamp their offense this offseason, which I think we can all agree with. Do you think it's possible that , despite pretty good SP depth heading into next year, they may look to rejigger their rotation a bit? They seem to have quite a few LHPs with similar repertoires/styles. Could Q be a valuable trade piece to help solve some of their offensive issues?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Quintana still has positive trade value, with two club-option years left, but statistically it does seem like his command has gone backwards and there's less and less separating him from where, say, Jake Odorizzi was a year ago
10:13
Some of that might've been the fault of the Cubs' catchers, but Quintana's stock is down, even after a second half where he lowered his walk rate
10:14
And the Cubs don't have *that* much rotation depth to toy with. Don't think Quintana is untouchable, but he's not an obvious player to move
rhendricks
10:14
Has Machado's antics hurt his stock any?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
I almost started mass-texting this very question to front-office people, but then I didn't, because, no
10:16
There are so few superstars in the game. This one is going to get paid, just like the other ones
Alex Rodriguez was never hurting for money
10:17
Whoever signs Machado will simply convince themselves he's still growing up
And, I mean, he's 26. Still young! Lots of growing up to do
10:18
Think of it this way: if Machado has like four or five serious free-agent contenders, the team likely to make the biggest offer -- and therefore the most compelling offer -- will be the team least concerned about his occasional behavior
Whitty
10:19
Does a Ken Giles happen to Kimbrel if he struggles 1 more game?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
Red Sox don't have the same depth to turn to
And yesterday Kimbrel looked all right
Kyle
10:20
The Pirates trade for Chris Archer seemed to represent a major turning point for management in that they finally made a splash move that was missing during their window of 2013-15. Do you see them being surprisingly aggressive in the free agent market this offseason?
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
No
I would imagine that, right now, the Pirates feel a collective sense of regret
I know it was supposed to be a statement move, and I'm sure they're still happy to have Chris Archer, but, boy, that looks like an awful overpay already
10:21
The worst thing they could do is double down on it
stever20
10:22
is it me, or does it seem like guys starting on 3 days rest have done much better this playoffs than in recent past?
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