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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/28/16
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Guest
9:52
Thoughts on Carlos Santana in LF?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
The way I'm currently thinking about it: Tomlin is more of a fly-ball pitcher than line-drive pitcher. Like, the damaging hits are homers, not doubles, and Santana's not bringing any homers back. So I've talked myself into this, for five or six innings. At that point you re-evaluate
Dock Ellis
9:53
Rick Ankiel had -80 command right?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
:(
Jaack
9:53
Fun Fact: Since 1947, three of the top five career triples hitters are named Willie.
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Willie is a good triples name
Dubslow
9:54
Where can we find playoff stats? The usual leaderboards here just show regular season
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
Unfortunately we don't have a playoff leaderboard. We do have playoff stats on player pages, if you look closely. There's a little gray "postseason" button http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4940&position=OF
For playoff statistical leaderboards, you can get a lot of the basic stuff on MLB.com pretty quick
True story
9:55
Last night I had a vivid dream. A dream in which you, Jeff Sullivan, and your girlfriend (known only to me in concept through reading your chats), were guests in my home. I was excited for the chance to tell you face to face how I love not only your writing, but the way you expose your thought process, which I find calming and meditative and reflective of my own method of analysis. We talked at length about being INTPs. I'm a happily married woman, don't worry, Jeff. But all except the circumstance is true even to my waking self.
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
I appreciate the sentiment behind this message and I only wish I could know what we looked like
I am eight and a half feet tall and one of my arms is a leg
Jose
9:56
If the bases are loaded and u ground out into the double play but the runner on third and second score do u get a RBI for the guy at second?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
I...don't know. Give me one second!
9:57
I have to assume no. The rules seem pretty explicit
v2micca
9:58
Jason Heyward has posted a 200+ ISO in only one season of his career. Given the elite power he flashed as a rookie, what is the most likely explanation for his power never developing?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
His swing has always been complicated, and I have a hunch that it's simply too level. He's never been much of an air-ball hitter, even though he clearly has the strength to succeed as such
I definitely do not think we've seen the last of Jason Heyward as an above-average bat
Zonk
10:00
How do you expect Francona to use Miller and Allen tonight? With 3 games in a row, does he need to be careful about running up a large pitch count like he did Tuesday?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
I don't think you're going to see Miller throw another 40 - 50 pitches. It does help, somewhat, to know that Kluber is going again tomorrow, which might reduce the bullpen demand. And Francona might want to lean harder on his strikeout relievers given how strong the wind is going to be. So you should see both the pitchers, but they might throw a *combined* 60 pitches
In a windy game like this I'd be looking for Dan Otero
weezy
10:01
What can the Mariners do this offseason? Feels like they are in their peak right now, and that's an 85-win team. Sigh.
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
Get Walker and the relievers healthy and find a first baseman
Minty
10:03
Is a realistic offensive outcome for Conforto something along the lines of Joc?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
I think Conforto has somewhat better bat-to-ball skills and Pederson is stronger. But I figure Conforto should eventually settle around a 110 - 120 wRC+ so yeah, that's not so different. Both will probably need to be protected against good lefties
Andrew
10:04
Eno yesterday mentioned that a Mets-Pirates trade centered around McCutchen might make sense. What do you think about that idea? What would such a trade look like?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
That would be McCutchen for one of the Mets starters. Not too complicated to draw up. Obvious reason for hesitation on both sides
J
10:06
How much should we discount future value? Like if a small market team that couldn't resign their free agents had a 3 WAR player for the next 5 years and somehow knew they had a 4 WAR player coming up after those 5 years and had the same amount of years under control which one would be more valuable?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
The former player would be more valuable -- the next guy is six years away, and that's something that would have to be heavily discounted
I believe that runs with a discount rate of 8% each year?
Maybe not a bad rule of thumb
Pretty Tony
10:08
My Red Wings have made the playoffs every year I've been alive on this Earth. This year, for the first time ever, I said I hope they miss the playoffs and thought they would be really bad. They won their sixth straight in a SO last night in STL. Is the Wings' run the most dominant in sports and what is the closest baseball equivalent? 90s Barves?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
I do feel like the Braves would be the closest equivalent, but what's remarkable about the Red Wings is they're still going, even in this age of information. Elite-level organization, in just about all respects
Of course, half the teams in hockey make the playoffs every year. But for so long there the Wings were consistently finishing first or second
10:10
They haven't finished better than third now since 2010-11
Rexdale
10:10
Great analogy with the Devils, I still can't root for them because of the resentment I had to their style of play under a previous regime.
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
It makes me laugh how many reasons there are for people to dislike other teams. Not because I don't do it too. I do! But it's so much easier to hate a franchise than to like it. And we only accumulate those reasons as we get older
Andrew
10:11
Should the Mets try to sign Carlos Gomez on the cheap? Relatedly, can he still play CF?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
Well he can play CF better than Cespedes, but I think he's a better fit somewhere else
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