Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 10/7/16
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Jeff Sullivan
10:08
My hunch is he's just developed something of a minor mechanical flaw. If he's lined up for another start in this series, I plan to write some kind of article on the subject
Zonk
10:09
How big a contract could you see Aroldys Chapman getting this offseason? It appears there will be some big-money bidders, including Cubs and Yanks at least....
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
nine figures
Erik
10:10
Is Bumgarner's playoff sample size large enough that you should expect him to outperform his regular season projections in the playoffs?
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
His playoff peripherals are basically the same as his regular-season peripherals
I don't mean to take anything away from him. And it's all a lot of fun. But this is more psychological than actual
Which, I suppose you could argue, makes it something actual
Outta my way, Gyorkass
10:11
Does Showalter's poor management of his bullpen and Francona's smart use of his bullpen on the big stage play a part in accelerating the more sensible use of elite bullpen arms (read: not exclusively save situations), or is this progress simply going to proceed at a molasses-like pace?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
It's been proceeding, and it will continue to proceed. Consider how much the Indians paid to get Miller to not be a closer in the first place
Sonny
10:12
Francona's bullpen usage last night was interesting because it shows a manager projecting that a 5 game series is as random as a 1 game play-in. Rare to see a manager sell out for an opening game but it was cool as hell
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Agreed. Love how he seized the moment. Worry about Game 2 in Game 2
Jaack
10:12
Is it just me, or is this the most quality set of teams in the postseason in a while?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
They're all so good. Even if you don't love the Rangers, the playoff version has a solid lineup and a strong and deep bullpen from 1 to 7
Steve
10:13
Even though the Jays weren't as good this year, do you think that having good starting pitching means they're better built for the playoffs?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
Every team in there has pretty good starting pitching. I think they have a weakness in that their bullpen is less reliable
Scott
10:14
I never realized how huge pitchers can be. Thor is the same weight as Frank Thomas and just an inch taller. Bumgarner has one inch and 25 pounds on Trumbo. Wainwright is Richie Sexson's height plus 30ish pounds.
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
The average major-league pitcher can really fill out a set of pant legs
The lower-body strength is out of this world
CamdenWarehouse
10:15
Only one GM/top exec job available this offseason. That's unusual isn't it?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
The Twins have had two just on their own
Greg
10:15
If Coppy changed his mind and wanted to add more prospects, if he dangled Julio Teheran, Julio would likely be the best starter available, what could they get in return?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Three good prospects in the middle or upper levels
Outta my way, Gyorkass
10:16
On a scale of 1 to Billy Goat, how Cubby would it be to see someone like Carlos Gomez hit a game winning bomb off Aroldis Chapman in Game 7 of the WS where the Cubs went into the 9th up by 1?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
I don't want to make anyone upset but if the Cubs do end up losing in these playoffs I sure wouldn't mind if it came at Chapman's expense
Q-Ball
10:17
Why did the 2001 Mariners fail in the playoffs? Any lessons we can draw from that? Sorry to pick at an old wound.....
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
The Yankees that year were also good and, well, playoff sample size. There's nothing more to be said
In five games, the Yankees scored 25 runs, and the Mariners scored 22. Oh well
Grim Rice
10:18
Jeff, not sure if you can answer this, but are Fangraphs' World Series odds adjusted through the playoffs?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
Definitely
I believe they're adjusted shortly after every single game
Slew
10:18
Are the Indians now the favorites vs Boston by virtue of (a) a one game lead, and (b) getting that lead out of Trevor freaking Bauer?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
Mostly the first part. They survived Bauer but they'll still probably have Tomlin and Clevinger
Sonny
10:19
Would a SF-Cle world series cause a reevaluation of manager value? Read a lot about how managing egos/clubhouse is 90% of the job but lousy in-game managers (Matheny, Farrell) can't be that great at soothing egos to overcome their deficiencies with talented rosters
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
Sure they could. The actual win-expectancy effects of in-game moves are seldom even on the order of a few percentage points. But if you create a clubhouse environment in which a few of your players can thrive, that means a handful of wins right there
Buck Showalter might've held the Orioles back a little on Tuesday, but one could argue that without him they wouldn't have been eligible for that game in the first place
Stevil
10:21
Would a deal centered around Taijuan Walker for Wil Myers make sense for the Padres and Mariners? Other pieces would likely be needed, but the Padres have Sanchez to fall back on and Naylor a couple of years out. The Mariners seemingly have the pitching flexibility for a move like that.
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
Mariners don't really have that much pitching flexibility and I think the Padres like Myers too much. But I've started to wonder about a Walker/Josh Bell flip
Ben
10:21
How many plate appearances before individual pitcher-batter matchup stats become predictive?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
More than ever happen
Outta my way, Gyorkass
10:22
Szymborski opined on Monday that the suspension handed down to AJ Preller for his medical info dealings was too light, and that the team should have been punished as a whole, because he thought there was no way Preller was orchestrating the scheme by himself. What are your thoughts? Do you think this is going to hurt SD's ability to deal with potential trade partners going forward due to trust issues?
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