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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/11/16
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Jeff Sullivan
10:06
Cabrera wouldn't fetch much of anything. Frazier could pull one semi-interesting prospect, or two lower-level ones
10:07
Even last year, the return for Frazier+ was underwhelming, and now he's older, with half the remaining control, and he just ran a .302 OBP
Jake
10:07
Who plays CF for the A's in 2017? Or, hell, who plays any OF spot for them?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
I think they like Eibner, and I can see him as a legitimate third outfielder, but my expectation is they'll make some kind of play for Inciarte
10:08
Failing that, they could try for Lagares, depending on what the Mets do
Q-Ball
10:08
What would it take for the Cubs to get Odorizzi? Would Soler be of interest, and what else would it take besides him?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
I could be wrong but I doubt that Soler is the Rays' type of player
10:09
They'd demand Baez, as they've done before, and then it's up to the Cubs to try to move from there to common ground
Devin
10:10
Do you think MLB will go back to awarding Gold Gloves to three outfielders from each league instead of giving one to a designated LF, CF and RF? Kevin Pillar is one of the best defensive center fielders I've ever seen, and may never win a gold glove as long as he's in the same league as Kevin Kiermaier, who just happens to be even more ridiculous -- he led in DRS again this year even though he missed two months. I mean, isn't it kinda dumb that Cespedes won an American League Gold Glove last year for his three and a half months of work in left field for the Tigers and Pillar didn't? The current system is largely rewarding players for not being good enough to play center field, or at least play it well
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
Doesn't the same system reward second basemen for not being good enough to play shortstop? Doesn't it reward first basemen for not being good enough to play literally anywhere else?
10:11
All the best defensive players in baseball are center fielders, shortstops, or catchers.
Roberto
10:11
Braves are making shrewd moves to lock up Dickey and Colon, giving them approx 400 slightly above average innings (Dickey and Colon combined for nearly 4 fWAR in 2016) - all for a cost of $20M and on a 1 year commitment (Dickey has a team option). Do you agree that these moves are highly intelligent? The Braves get a bridge to their younger arms while gaining innings and also locked up other teams' fallback options before prices got too high.
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
I don't think they're "highly intelligent." This isn't some page out of a brilliant playbook. This is just a pretty obvious compromise. They want to get better without giving up young pieces. How do you do that? Short-term FA contracts.
Math-eny
10:12
Hello Jeff, with the amount of 1B/DH on the market this year, is EE's value reduced or will he just separate the good from the replacement?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
Every free agent represents a hole on a roster, and Encarnacion is at the top of his position's list. He'll be fine
Leone for Third
10:13
Would Dodgers eat money to move Howie Kendrick? He seems to be a decent stopgap 2B who might get you 1.5 WAR
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
I'm sure they'd be happy to if it got them a better return.
joey
10:14
Am I wrong for thinking talk of the Tigers blowing it up is crazy? They're still in a position where they have a reasonable shot at contending, and could still move JD at the deadline if things don't go their way.
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
I wouldn't go with "crazy," but it is a little weird, with three of the division rivals so vulnerable. Now, I'm not privy to the Tigers' books, so maybe this is just something they feel financially obligated to do. But I think the roster is good enough today that they could get into the playoffs without too much work
craig counsell
10:15
Wily Peralta isn't good as a starter, any chance he'd be better out of the pen?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
Yes
Justin
10:15
So the multi-inning elite reliever appears to be the new market inefficiency, if you were projecting, what do you see as the next one?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
There's a difficulty to this -- Andrew Miller is not a market inefficiency. There is only one Andrew Miller.
10:16
You'll see attempts to find the *next* Andrew Miller but for now those players don't exist. I guess the Cubs sort of tried with Mike Montgomery, but he was a whole hell of a lot worse than Miller was
The Rays have tried with Erasmo Ramirez, but he's been up and down
Emperor Vottovus
10:17
If you took over the reds today, would you start over and rebuild the rebuild, or do you think there is actually some hope that seemingly underwhelming prospects they've acquired can compete in that division while Votto is still good?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
I don't know what there is for them to do. You're not getting a strong return for Phillips. You're not getting a strong return for Cozart. Mesoraco's injury problems have devastated his value. The Reds aren't trapped, but they've fallen behind, with regard to the other rebuilds. They need a big player-development season
Justino
10:18
Do you think Otani gets posted this year, and if not, when?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
I don't. I don't know if he'll ever come over
Dan
10:20
Any chance the Cubs extend Bryant and/or Russell this winter? What would that look like?
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
I expect the conversations to begin. With Russell, maybe you draw comparisons to the Christian Yelich extension. That was basically 7/$50m for a comparable sort of value. Bryant, of course, would blow that away
10:22
With Bryant, you start thinking about how closely you want to compare him to Mike Trout. He isn't Mike Trout, but that's one point to consider when you're assembling terms
10:23
Trout got 6/$145m to cover three years of arb and three years of free agency. The FA years were valued at just over $33m. Maybe Bryant's would get $30m
10:24
I'm just noticing now that the Blue Jays got Lourdes Gurriel for 7 years and $22 million http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/blue-jays-sign-lourdes-gurriel-cuba.html
10:25
I don't have insight on this. Gurriel, to me, is an unknown. But I wanted to make sure this had some place in the chat
Dumpster Fiers
10:25
Do you think it would be a mistake for the Rangers not to move Profar and/or Gallo this off-season? I get they're young, but their stock is dropping. Stanton would be a Ranger if they would have just given up Profar a few years back.
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
Well that's just the thing -- their stocks are dropping. It would be worthwhile for the Rangers to call around and see who might still love either of the two young players. But I know there's long been an industry consensus that Profar was overrated, and Gallo didn't do anything in 2016 to ease the questions about his future
10:27
I get the sense that the Rangers should just give Gallo 400 - 500 PA in a boom-or-bust season. Be the team to take the chance. It might fail, but at least then they'd know
Bort
10:27
Do you think Trea Turner will be an All Star and will the Padres regret that trade?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
The Padres won't regret the trade, because they love Wil Myers, but Trea Turner is better, and Joe Ross is good.
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