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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/2/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:22
Lucroy. He can catch more
@RationalMLBFan
10:26
With Didi Gregorius estimated to receive $12+ million in arbitration, but also not be ready until as late as September, that's a lot to pay someone who might play very little, even for the Yankees. Should the Yankees try to sign him to an extension to keep him beyond 2019? Non-tender him and move on? Something in between?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
I think it would be tough for them to non-tender a guy who *might* be ready to be their starting shortstop in the second half. Off the top of my head I could see the Yankees and Gregorius arriving at an agreement around two years and $20 - 24 million or so. Gregorius wouldn't have to wait that much longer to hit free agency, but the Yankees would also presumably get a deal for 2020
Beautiful Ted
10:27
Adrian Beltre is a top __ player of his generation?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
I don't know. Ten? Extremely high up there
10:28
Other players have had better seasons, but very few have had better careers
j
10:28
Does Cleveland make sense as a trade partner for the Cubs, given both teams respective outfielder situations?
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
It's obvious what the Indians might want from the Cubs. It's less obvious what the Cubs might reasonably want from the Indians
10:29
I still see the Indians as a decent match with the Padres, although Jankowski is a worse fit now that the Indians re-signed Martin
Addy
10:29
Jeff what do you think of the Mets new GM can you lie to me and say the mets are gonna be good next year please
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
The Mets are likely to be better than people presently assume
10:30
They went...way off the board with their GM hiring, but at least it's been demonstrated that the guy is able to communicate with their ownership
Garrett
10:31
What do you think the Pirates’ infield looks like next year?  Do they perhaps add a cheap 3B or SS as a bridge to Hayes and Tucker?
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
I think they probably stick with Moran as the regular at third, but there is ample room for a better shortstop than Newman
10:34
There's not a lot on the free-agent market, but as one under-the-radar name to keep in mind, they're a possible fit for Erik Gonzalez. Decently powerful, versatile, no route to regular playing time in Cleveland
Southern Bleacher Bum
10:34
Who wins NL MVP first? Acuna or Soto? Does Buehler win a Cy Young before either of them gets an MVP?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
More bad things can happen to pitchers. I think Acuna MVP is the most likely to be first
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free
10:35
Do you know if Dave enjoyed his first year with the Padres?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
He is glad that he's there and I do believe he's enjoying it. It's also not exactly the job he thought he was going to have
Sharp
10:36
Who will be the first "big name" to sign?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Trevor Rosenthal, baby!
10:37
Trying to figure out when last year's first relevant free agent signed
10:38
Hisashi Iwakuma signed on November 27, but he didn't really count anymore
Clayton Kershaw will presumably sign a modified, extended contract with the Dodgers today
10:40
Yusei Kikuchi will be posted soon, and then he'll have to sign somewhere within 30 days
10:41
I could see Yasmani Grandal picking a team within the next month?
Tea Leoni for Third
10:43
Best Mariners LF of all time?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
It's probably Raul Ibanez, although peak Randy Winn had an argument
matzabal
10:44
Hi Jeff - what's your take on PCL MVP Josh Fuentes?  Any chance he's a bench bat for the Rockies in 2018?
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
Doesn't seem likely, given the presence of McMahon. Fuentes is 1B/3B and of course Arenado isn't going to budge
Nicky
10:45
I'm ready to see offseason transactions. I'm not ready to see Fangraphs writers transactions. It comes so suddenly. Maybe I need FangraphsTradeRumors
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
October/November is hiring season, for baseball teams. So that's something to keep in mind moving forward
Ryan
10:46
2019 Steamer projections look conservative for WAR totals (outside of Trout) even accounting for the conservative nature of projection systems.  Are they still in progress?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
I think Steamer tends to be more conservative than ZiPS
10:47
Also worth noting that our playing-time projections are somewhat conservative as well. We never project someone to play in 160 games
That doesn't affect rate statistics like wOBA, but it would affect plain old WAR
Mike
10:47
What do you make of the cubs picking up hamels’ option and and then following trade?
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
They like Hamels but couldn't afford him without doing something else
10:48
That's basically it. They saw enough from Hamels that they thought he was worth slightly more than the equivalent of a qualifying offer
a very dumb person
10:48
It is my understanding that WAR does not consider line-up. If Mike Trout and Mookie Betts were on opposite teams for 2018 and everything else played out the same, I'd assume Trout's offensive numbers would be even better than they were is there a stat or fair way to judge this or are we not interested in parallel universes?
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