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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/4/16
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Jeff Sullivan
10:10
Allen was good. Lester was pretty good
Ben Lindbergh wrote recently about how there's no observable familiarity effect
Game 7
10:12
Albies, inciarte, Newcomb for Quintana and Brett Lawrie?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Even though Quintana is better than Inciarte, the gap isn't huge, and Albies and Newcomb are too important to what the Braves think they might be doing
Chris
10:13
Jansen is tied to a draft pick, lowering his value added to any suitors. Presumably, this would impact his contract offers and cost him $$$. Any idea of how much of an impact (if any?) this would have on his offer amount?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
I don't recall what the research has shown but I'd guess somewhere around $10m? The QO has been less of a deterrent for the elite-level free agents, which makes some sense, but clearly it doesn't *not* matter
GSon
10:14
If the Indians decide to move Andrew Miller, would the return be more (Frazier/Sheff/Heller/Feyeresuan) than what they sent away for him?.. e.g LA Dodgers for Puig/De Leon as the center pieces?
Jeff Sullivan
10:14
I don't think they'd top the midseason premium they paid out.
letswintwo
10:15
Chances Cubs decline Hammel's option and move montgomery into the rotation? Or pick up hammel's option and move him into the pen/swingman role? The Cubs will be losing SP depth after 2017 and Montgomery could provide a cheap, under control middle of roto SP
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
Right now I feel like the Cubs need to prioritize some rotation depth. So it would make sense to me to bring back Hammel, and then have Montgomery available as a sixth man
So, you keep Montgomery stretched out in relief
Andy
10:16
Is Chapman going to make $100 million?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Wouldn't surprise me at all
Ted
10:16
Assuming Fowler leaves via FA, that leaves Schwarber, Heyward, Soler and Zobrist in the OF. Who is the odd man out?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
They could all play pretty regularly
Hal
10:17
A friend argued that baseball could supplant football as America's biggest sport within the next 15 years, but all I could think of was that Game 7 of the NBA Finals came down to a block by the best player in the world and then a missed three-pointer by the second best player in the world. Game 7 of the World Series came down to Mike Montgomery versus Michael Martínez.
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
I think the particular sequence in Game 7 was a feature, not a bug. But baseball does definitely suffer from two things: it's slow, and you don't always get to have the best players on the field
But for whatever it's worth, Game 7 isn't going to be remembered for the final out
Aha
10:18
Are Mark melancon and David Robertson the same people?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
One of them has a fresh surgical wound
Tanner
10:19
had you ever seen a mid-at-bat defensive replacement before game 7?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
I'm pretty sure the answer is yes, but obviously I don't keep much of a mental database
E
10:20
I am an Indians fan and was at game 7. I don’t think I can ever appreciate how good of a game that actually was. I also never want to see a highlight of it ever again.
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
That's the problem with the best games in history. Half of the people who watched will never want to hear about it
10:21
It's why I kind of liked the rain delay -- for those 17 minutes, everyone could appreciate the magnitude of what had taken place. Even if Cubs fans were hurting
For those 17 minutes, at least to me, it felt like everyone won
Erik
10:22
Which sub-.500 team will sign the most expensive free agent contract this winter?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
I feel like the Braves might do something weird
Ross
10:23
I believe I saw you mention in a previous chat that you think the Rays will definitely trade a starter in the offseason. In that case, do you think Odorizzi is the most likely guy to go? They'd be selling low on Cobb or Smyly and I'd be stunned if Archer is traded, I think it would take something absolutely ridiculous to get them to move him with five more very affordable years of team control. If so, what can they expect for Odorizzi? Can they get more for him than they did for Moore?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
I think they're going to try on Archer -- he rebounded down the stretch, and he might turn out to be the best starter available this winter, depending on what the White Sox elect to do. So Archer could be the market's premium piece. But the Rays will never ever sell someone below a certain level they've calculated, so if no one goes over the top for Archer, then Odorizzi, yeah, is the next in line
And Odorizzi is better than Moore, so that should help him
Bullpen Sausage
10:25
Do we see more 2+ relief inning stints during the 2017 regular season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
I don't think we'll see much changing during the regular season. Too many other days to think about
JKD
10:27
Who would you be looking for among mediocre starters that even in this hyperinflated pitching market, might be a good target to become if-not-Andrew-Miller-then-at-least-Joe-Blanton?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
I liked what Francisco Liriano looked like out of the bullpen
10:28
For some reason I wonder if Collin McHugh could be converted into a 100-inning fireman of sorts
I haven't thought this through very clearly
10:29
Michael Pineda could probably be a dominant reliever if I believed he had the psychology for it
E
10:29
Will teams start to change how they use relievers in the regular season? They obviously can’t use them like in the postseason but there has to be some lesson that can applied, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
You're going to see a gradual change toward the best relievers entering earlier. Putting out fires, and whatnot. Like how it used to be. You'll probably see more tandem relievers, where the best of them isn't necessarily the guy pitching the ninth
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