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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 11/4/16
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Kiermaier's Percing Blue Eyes
10:31
Brad commented yesterday that well-run wealthy teams would be baseball's next crisis. I'm inclined to agree. Is there a feasible solution? How far can revenue sharing be pushed?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
I'm *pretty* sure that money is currently distributed better than ever. Like, the differences between the top teams and the bottom teams are less stark than they were 20 years ago. It's still a problem, in that there still isn't financial parity, but it's not at the crisis level, I don't think
EbenezerBatflip
10:32
This would be a great chance for Otani to be the biggest fish in a terrible free agent crop, I think he could get 250M as a kid
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
His team probably wouldn't be very happy about the $20 million they'd have to settle for
Outside Animals
10:33
Do you think there will be a point where teams start deploying SS-type players at 1B? With aggressive shifting, I think there's a place for a rover on the right side that can cover tons of ground. Obviously, you'd need help from the pitcher to cover the base too.
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
Kind of an interesting thought here -- shifting might have de-emphasized the importance of range on the left side, but maybe it makes a bigger deal of range at first base?
10:34
Or maybe still no -- most grounders are pulled, and the right side is generally overcrowded. So maybe range is less important than before, even there
Josh
10:35
How Will CBA negotiations affect this years free agents? Think teams have a good enough sense of luxury tax situation to make it a non issue?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
they probably have a good ballpark idea, and only a few teams would be affected there, anyway
Erik
10:36
What team adds the most payroll this off-season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Astros?
Saluki
10:38
what kind of contract do you think Fowler is angling for? will he try to lock down something 3 yearsish like he seemed to be looking for with the orioles last year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
He just had the best year of his life, so he's probably hoping for something like 4/$70m
10:39
Alex Gordon wound up at 4/$72m with what was perceived to be a hometown discount. Fowler probably erased his defensive question mark
mike
10:39
Jays can't offer Dickey QO can they? Too big a risk he'd take it
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
He is not a $17m pitcher
JT
10:40
so whats up with the maybin trade? He wasn't expensive and the tigers don't have any reliable CF options. They are going to sign desmond aren't they?
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
They're trying to get cheaper, they like JaCoby Jones, and Maybin, at his best, is probably about an average player with one year of control remaining
Optimist
10:41
Are the Twins a dozier-for-pitcher + Berrios improvement away from contending next year? They scored more runs than the Giants and Mets last year, underperformed their base-runs by a lot.
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
No, they're still bad, and trading Dozier for a pitcher isn't a roster improvement
If Buxton is really turning the corner then obviously they get more interesting fast, but they have a longgggggggggg way to go
Josh
10:41
Korean hitters seem to be able to better translate their power upon going to MLB than NPB players. Any idea why that may be?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
Korean players are more powerful. Power is a bigger part of the Korean game than the Japanese game
10:42
In Japan, the priority is still about putting the ball in play and taking shorter swings. In Korea, they're more willing to let it fly
Stan
10:42
Does anyone test the 2016 projection systems against actual 2016 results and determine which system was the most accurate?
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
Yeah, you see some research on that stuff every year
Hot tip: the projections are usually almost identical in effectiveness
E
10:43
What offseason moves do you see the Indians making?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
I presume they'd like a lot more certainty in the outfield, but that's going to depend on the outlook for Michael Brantley. I don't know what's going on in his shoulder. Last I heard, it wasn't good.
JKD
10:44
Seems at least as important a lesson from the 2016 playoffs and bullpen usage is that *renting* closers/back-end arms it at least as useful, and maybe *more* useful, than buying them outright. Relievers break or fall apart all the time and if the rest of your team sucks, a good reliever is really just wasted. If you're a team that's projected for 88-92 wins and have a bullpen that's fine-to-good, does it really make sense to sign Chapman for $100MM, or just sign good-enough arms and then get Zach Britton or whomever at the trade deadline. Chapman and Miller obviously cost a lot, but the Nats basically did this and got Melancon (and had also gotten Scrabble) and they were plenty good enough.
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
I suspect this plays into why relievers seem to fetch the biggest deadline premiums. You can only really know in July how much a new reliever might be able to do for you down the stretch and into October
Dock Ellis
10:45
Why can't August tell us what team he's working for?
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
I don't know! But all MLB organizations are incredibly private.
Mason
10:46
What's your bold guess on a name that hasn't been mentioned yet that has a real chance of being traded this offseason?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
It's hard to think of names that haven't been mentioned. Like, even Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera have their rumors
Joey Votto's been mentioned...
10:47
Maybe Carlos Martinez? Does that count?
CamdenWarehouse
10:48
The Orioles shelled out 9 figures to a 30 year old instead of a 23 year old last year. They're still trying to win despite the lack of resources to improve the team.
Jeff Sullivan
10:48
I think the Orioles could probably convince themselves they could trade Britton without giving up. But it's one of the more confusing organizations around, in terms of its inconsistencies
Ron Fournier
10:49
Jeff, what do you think (broadly speaking) the Red Sox' offseason plans are?
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