Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/11/15
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El Chapo
12:31
Is the difference between SF's core and Chicago's core basically star power upside favoring the Cub's? I know SF's core isnt as sexy but it would seem like it should be a bigger selling point to FA's than we hear about. Yeah or nah?
Jeff Sullivan
12:32
Yeah, I think the point in the Cubs' favor is their young talent has been easier to see coming. So you get all the attendant hype and anticipation. With the Giants it's like, Crawford? Duffy? Panik? Since when are these guys actual things?
But they're so valuable. The Giants don't look like they'll be bad for a long time
12:33
The Cubs have more remaining on the farm, to their credit. The Giants' whole core is in the majors
Jason
12:33
7 minutes early
Jeff Sullivan
12:33
East coast time zone today. I was prepared to be prompt, as well, but I got distracted by Dave's baby
Matt
12:35
So...What's not to like about an up-the-middle of Swanson, Albies, and Mallex Smith?
Jeff Sullivan
12:35
The infielders have done nothing about Single-A and Smith is a lower-upside sort with zero power. But yeah, the long-term profile is encouraging for an organization whose position players people have been down on
Sonny
12:36
Could/should Swanson be ready for opening day '17? (or perhaps June '17 to save that extra year of service time).
Jeff Sullivan
12:36
A year from now would be hasty, but you're looking at July or September
Michael From Texas
12:37
How should I feel about Ken Giles as an Astros fan? He looked mediocre in the minor leagues and is now a lights out closer in the majors, cutting his walk rate in half. Is it possible that he just has had two really lucky seasons?
Jeff Sullivan
12:38
He always had strikeout stuff, and the Phillies got him to understand strikes. Doesn't happen all the time, but it does happen, especially for a young player rising fast through the ranks
Giles is around 2000 major-league pitches, and he's thrown two-thirds of them for strikes. He has better control than you'd expect from a hard-throwing righty with his profile
Austin
12:39
If you're the Blue Jays, do you try to extend both or one of Bautista and Encarnacion and hamper future payroll, or let them both walk and get the draft picks, while risking them going to rival teams in free agency and fielding a bad team in 2017?
Jeff Sullivan
12:40
Early instinct is I'd try to sign them both. Their ages should keep costs down. But there aren't conclusions to be reached without knowing what their markets are. As long as the Blue Jays are good, they need more players like this
El Chapo
12:41
If Heyward goes to Chi, does Gordon make the most sense to STL?
Jeff Sullivan
12:42
Might prefer a younger starter over an older outfielder. Heyward, clearly, is unusual. But if they have money for both...
Pat
12:43
what are the chances Starlin Castro gets better than 2014 Starlin Castro? Or at least gets back to 2014 Starlin Castro?
Jeff Sullivan
12:43
40%?
Alfred Jifford
12:43
Pick two: Derek Norris, Austin Hedges, Christian Bethancourt.
Jeff Sullivan
12:43
Derek Norris, Austin Hedges
Bethancourt seems to specialize in the thing that's least important for a player at his position
guy
12:43
Did Dave make sure you were on time today? If you're the reds, do you take a lesser return for chapman now, try to wait till spring training, or just wait till july?
Jeff Sullivan
12:44
I wait. No one will really want to touch Chapman now, but given what we understand about human nature and front-office dynamics, there's a real chance this'll just kind of blow over. Even if Chapman gets suspended, he'll be of greater interest post-suspension
Dubya
12:44
If the Nats do sign Heyward, are they signaling that they don't intend to sign Harper once he hits free agency?
Jeff Sullivan
12:44
There's no chance he's re-signing regardless
Like almost literally no chance
c
12:45
realistically how can the jays now improve given the horrible CAD/USD exchange rate and their already strict payroll limitations?
Jeff Sullivan
12:46
If Tulowitzki bounces back even a little bit, they're going to be super strong
12:47
Might be fun to take a flier on, you know, Cliff Lee or something, but this is a good team that I think could afford to re-visit what's needed in July. At the moment the list of needs is short
Derek
12:47
Is this the most on time you've ever been, Jeff? Hiking Question: How ultra-light have you gone while on a long trip. Baseball Question: Is the Ken Giles haul the most the Phillies could have expected?
Jeff Sullivan
12:48
1. I have been right on time before. Once, even minutes early
12:49
2. I'm not one of those ultra-light obsessives, but I do focus on weight and I never have to worry about peripheral stuff like camera gear etc. This summer will probably go lighter still. Haven't yet done a 2+ week through-hike
12:50
3. I think it's right around there, yeah. Teams aren't going to project the same long-term value from a guy like Giles as they would from a comparable starter. A slider-throwing max-effort reliever seems to have an increased chance of breaking down, so while Giles has 5 more years of control, I think realistically teams view him as a 2- or 3-year value
Velasquez is a fitting return. Hard-throwing risk for hard-throwing risk
mtsw
12:50
If you were Atlanta's GM, would you have been suspicious of Arizona's offer? Like, would you suspect maybe they know something about Swanson's health/makeup/etc and are trying to unload him before it becomes public?
Jeff Sullivan
12:51
The thought has to cross your mind, but they literally drafted him first overall just a few months ago
And you have the Toussaint thing that happened not far back
I think it's understood within the industry that Stewart just doesn't value players like other people value players
Squeak
12:52
Rank the rotations in the AL East: is it 1. TB. 2. NY. 3. Bos. 4. Tor. 5. Bal?
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