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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/11/15
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Jeff Sullivan
12:52
Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Jays, Orioles. A Gausman breakout would be helpful. Cobb's injury hurts TB's standing
JW
12:54
Your thoughts on Desmond Jennings going forward. This seems like a very important year for him.
Jeff Sullivan
12:55
Historically he's been underrated because of his baserunning and defensive value. After the year he had with his knees, those'll be undercut, so I think now you're probably looking at an average outfielder
12:56
Dave tells me Twitter says the Cardinals are out on Heyward
Which means this is probably the Cubs. Cardinals might turn to Gordon or, say, Maeda.
Josh
12:56
What do you think of the moves David Stearns has made thus far? Is there any justifiable reason you see for not trading Lucroy?
Jeff Sullivan
12:56
From what I've heard the ask for Lucroy has been insane
That needs to come down before there's any chance of a deal
12:57
The problem from Milwaukee's perspective is the concussion that adds some cloudiness. Because Lucroy isn't an easy guy to move midseason -- teams prefer their catchers and pitchers to work together starting in February
I think Lucroy really needs to be traded this winter but the Brewers will need to sell him hard as a guy who's totally healthy
Dmo
12:57
Has Cueto's impending contract gain or lost value by being the last pitcher on the market. Seems like most teams willing to overpay for an ace have their ace already.
Jeff Sullivan
12:58
Lots of pitchers left, lots of teams still willing to sign pitchers
12:59
I'm sufficiently risk-averse that I'd be uncomfortable giving Cueto six years, but the Diamondbacks already made him that 6/126 offer that was turned down, presumably because they're confident they can get more
Since Zimmermann got 5/110, it only makes sense Cueto could top that
2-D
12:59
Why would the Cardinals agree to give Broxton full no trade protection?
Jeff Sullivan
1:00
It's not like you're trading him for anything anyway
I am the Walrus
1:01
Trying to figure of Baez's value. Would Smyly and Boxberger be too much? Or Cobb/Moore and Boxberger?
Jeff Sullivan
1:01
I'm a bad person to ask because I don't love Baez all that much
1:02
But pretty clearly the Cubs are trying to use him to get a TB RP and a TB SP. Maybe Boxberger and Ramirez
If the Cubs are confident in Bosio and if the Rays are less confident in Moore, there could be a fit, although he's got all those club options
Danny
1:03
Who starts in center for the Tigers -- Maybin or Gose?
Jeff Sullivan
1:03
Maybin
tony
1:03
How would you rank the young shortstops on who you would rather have? I'd go correa bogaerts russell seager lindor
Jeff Sullivan
1:03
This question is unfair
Seager, Correa, Lindor, Bogaerts, Russell
Johnny5Alive
1:04
By giving Madson 3 years and axford 2 years at their prices, did the A's screw every other team? I mean now kelley gets a 3 year deal?
Jeff Sullivan
1:05
This is the market. 3 years for Soria, 4 for O'Day, 3 for Sipp, 2 for Motte, 2 for Broxton, 2 for Qualls...
Chris
1:05
What do you make of Cueto's agent selling Cueto's fit with the Cardinals? Do you see a fit between him and STL?
Jeff Sullivan
1:06
Probably too much risk for them but there's nothing wrong with the agent trying to drum up interest in his client from a team he knows has money and an opening
Kenneth
1:07
Last year the Mariners were projected as one of the best teams in the league preseason according to Steamer. This year they are around the middle of pack, even though it seems like they now have a better group of role players around the same core. Is this mostly due to recent off-years from Felix and Cano, aging for Cruz, and the loss of Kuma? Felix and Cano actually have pretty good projections this season, so I don't really get it.
Jeff Sullivan
1:07
Projection-wise, worse rotation, worse bullpen, worse shortstop, worse center fielder, worse second baseman
1:08
I think Dipoto has done a good job to make the team deeper, but that's hard to see in a projection that assumes pretty regular playing time for the guys at the front
Dan
1:08
I don't really understand when I would want to use FIP- vs ERA- vs xFIP-. Help.
Jeff Sullivan
1:09
I use them all to cross-check one another. I look at FIP- first, then I look over one to see if there was maybe some home-run luck. Over larger samples, I'll think about ERA-, and I'll compare that to the others to see if maybe the pitcher has something special going on
groucho
1:09
Who do you think winds up with Maeda?
Jeff Sullivan
1:09
Thinking about the Giants and the Cardinals right now
1:10
That's me, for the record, not him. I don't know what he's thinking about. He doesn't even know what his options will be yet
Johnny5Alive
1:10
if the Nats sign Heyward, is that in anticipation of harper leaving in 3 years?
Jeff Sullivan
1:10
They know he's leaving
Ray
1:10
what is more likely to happen: the Dodgers sign Cueto or they trade for a younger starter - Carraso, etc.?
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