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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/14/18
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Sirras
9:39
Do you have a player that you admit isn't special but you particularly enjoy watching?
Jeff Sullivan
9:39
Tyler Glasnow
9:40
Marcus Stroman
Freddy Peralta for sure
I love pitching
9:41
Incomplete pitching
Mandy is 92% Fresh
9:41
Why Billy Hamilton?  Why?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
They probably think he's a younger Jarrod Dyson, and they liked Jarrod Dyson
I think Brian Goodwin is kind of interesting, but realistically, even though the Royals aren't good, it's not like Hamilton is blocking the next hot-shot prospect
Pd
9:43
Can you be any more Dipoto?
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
Not to make light of the health situation but I do think that was maximum Dipoto
Roy Oswalt
9:43
How good are the Phillies now? Outside of Nola and potentially Hoskins there isn't a lot of top talent. Are the high expectations assuming they sign a Harper or Machado?
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
I do think there's an assumption the Phillies can and are going to spend more than they will
9:44
They're not going to go right back to their all-time top payrolls
9:45
As is, I think they're an average team. They still need help. But I think they're going to get two more players of significance
One position player, and one reliever
KD
9:45
I just wanted to remind everyone that, despite FG and other sites where baseball fans have a decided analytical bent, the typical baseball fan that posts on team-oriented sites, Twitter feeds, etc. are the overwhelming majority of fans.   I was reminded of that fact when reading the comments from "Cleveland Fan" about the three-way trade yesterday.
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
This is definitely a bubble. We exist in a really niche bubble
It just so happens to be a bubble that's in general alignment with how actual teams now operate, but that doesn't mean the average fans care
James
9:48
I have a growing feeling the Bryce Harper will not get a record breaking contract. Just feels like the market won't value him that way against other players on shorter deals. Is that off base?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
Jason Heyward signed for 8/$184m, with two opt-outs, going into his age-26 season. Bryce Harper is also going into his age-26 season. There's more money in the game now than there used to be, and between 23-25, Heyward was the better defender, but Harper has been the better hitter, by 16 points of wRC+
9:51
Offense, of course, is still weighted more heavily than defense, and Harper has flashed that Hall-of-Fame level talent in his one peak season. I think the reality of Harper is still lower than the perception, but I'm not yet at the point where I doubt that he'll get something enormous
Personally, I'm waiting on the Dodgers to clear out their outfield
Bob Lowblaw
9:53
Your DD, congratulations on your WS win, how do you address the loss of Kelly, impending loss of Kimbrel, and then next offseasons FA's, including JDM?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Money
I spend money
9:54
There's no shortage of available relievers. Don't need to get anchored to Kimbrel and Kimbrel alone. Not that worried about losing Kelly
9:55
Relievers are available now, and relievers will be available in July. The Red Sox are so good already that they don't need to be desperate
Joe
9:55
Does it matter much who the Orioles manager ends up being?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
Yeah, but not in ways we'll ever really understand
Fangraphs reader
9:57
Nobody is really going to complain because it's the Rays, but isn't it odd that the MLB approved a trade in which the Rays sent money to cover part of a contract for a player that was never on their team?  Could you imagine the uproar if the Yankees paid for Choo's contract in a trade to the White Sox (random example) in exchange for prospects?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
I don't know all the ins and outs of what MLB can and can't approve, but we've already seen a long record of teams effectively buying prospects by accepting a bad contract. This is just removing the human aspect
9:59
If the Yankees traded for Shin-Soo Choo, and absorbed the whole contract, and they got prospects along with that, and then if they sent Choo directly to the White Sox while paying him almost entirely off -- well, that could happen today, in theory. It's one advantage of being a bigger-budget ballclub
Tyler
10:00
Was Mo ever a top 30 player in baseball?  He is a HOF'er for sure, I just see at least 7 hitters and 4 pitchers I would have a hard time voting for him over.  I know this sounds absurd to most.
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
It's always important to remember that Rivera had a career 0.70 playoff ERA over 141 innings. 11.7 playoff WPA, in the highest-leverage games
10:02
Yeah, there was that one Game 7 where everything just went wrong, but Rivera gets more of a playoff boost than anybody else ever has
10:03
I don't know if he was ever a top-30 player -- after all these years I *still* don't know how highly to value great relievers -- but for what the Hall of Fame is supposed to be, Rivera was frequently top-30 by those standards
Kristen
10:05
Claudio for a competitive-balance pick seems like a good deal for both sides.  When are they going to open things up and allow trading of regular picks?
Jeff Sullivan
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