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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/14/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:07
Here's Cooper: "But the bigger problem is that any added excitement created by trading draft picks would be wiped away the first time a team sold a top-10 pick to a large revenue team for salary relief on a bad contract, which would happen. In other words, trading draft picks would only highlight the differences between high revenue teams and low revenue ones."
10:08
But here's Polishuk: "The general consensus was that the ability to trade picks would greatly elevate fan interest in the draft — trades are, of course, major reasons why the NFL, NBA, and NHL drafts carry a higher profile than MLB’s amateur selection process.  One American League exec claimed widespread support for the pick-trading idea (“I don’t know anybody who’s not in favor of that at this point“) around the game, though no changes of this nature were implemented when the new collective bargaining agreement was agreed upon in the 2016-17 offseason."
10:10
I'm more on the pro-trade side. It's already possible for a team to package a bad contract with a good prospect. Packaging a bad contract with a high draft pick is no different. There would be real logistical concerns, but I think since MLB has already gotten part of the way there, they'll eventually allow all picks to be moved. At the same time, I don't think that's a priority for the next CBA
Fangraphs reader
10:13
For a rule 5 player, does he or she have to clear waivers before a team can trade for the rights to demote the player?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
I don't believe so
I was wrong!
"If a team wants to keep a Rule 5 pick and send him to the minors, that player must clear waivers and then the team has to work a trade with the club that previously had him."
10:15
Seems pretty explicit right there
"Atlanta originally signed Diamond as an undrafted free agent back in 2007. If the Twins are unable to work out a trade to keep him, he would have to first clear waivers and be offered back to the Braves before he could go to the minors."
10:19
So maybe...I...was right? This hasn't been very helpful
If I had to *guess*, you would and should be able to make a trade before ever exposing the player to waivers
10:21
I'm sorry for having spent so long on this
Slow
10:21
Why haven't the Dodgers made a 6-team trade yet?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
I do keep waiting for them to break this market open
But they have the best blockbuster fits with the Indians and the Marlins, and the Indians have been busy doing other things, while the Marlins are still trying to pit every Realmuto suitor against one another
It'll burst before too long
DBRuns
10:23
I think what's lost in yesterday's 3-team trade is that the Indians needed a replacement for EE in 2020. They were already on the hook for the $5 million buyout, and now fill their 2020 1B/DH for only $12.5 million more. If Santana is a 2-WAR player in 2020, that's likely a better pickup than what you could net in free agency. Agree with this?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
Somewhat. When we're talking about the DH slot, I don't think it's necessary to plan a year in advance, since there are always hitters around. Santana just put up a 109 wRC+. The year before, he was at 115. You don't *need* to acquire a player like this early
10:25
CJ Cron projects for a 115 wRC+ and he was freely available. Ditto Justin Bour and his 114 wRC+ projection
Santana is fine, but I think it was mostly motivated by money
Chuck-it
10:27
Will Elvis Luciano be pitching in the Majors in 2020?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
Nah
Chuck-it
10:28
Anthony Alford for Lucas Giolito - who says no?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
Guessing White Sox. Giolito was bad for most of 2018, but so was Alford, and Alford was bad in Triple-A
Fangraphs reader
10:30
How do y'all come up with the depth charts projections for playing time?  It seems pretty clear the Astros intend to use McHugh as a starter right now, but he's listed as a reliever.
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
I should probably go in and give McHugh some starter innings, at least for the time being. Hard to stay on top of everything, but also so much of it right now is guesswork since rosters are incomplete in the middle of December. By February and March is when everything should be at its most accurate. Even the Astros don't know yet what their rotation is going to look like
Mandy is 92% Fresh
10:32
What happens with Vogelbach?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
I think by spring training there will be a lane toward action at 1B/DH, mostly DH
10:33
He might have to wait for the second half of the season, but Encarnacion isn't long for this roster, and I don't think Bruce/Healy will be that high of an obstacle
Walt
10:34
Who's the closer for the 2019 Red Sox?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
Kimbrel actually seems like the most likely out of all the individual names
I'd take the field over Kimbrel, but I'd take Kimbrel over any other single option
striker
10:35
Did the Brewers truly rebuild or are they riding a wave of luck? Of their 2.0 fWAR or > players, none were drafted or signed by them. They don't have much in the pipeline. Most of their value came from FAs or Yelich.
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
It doesn't really matter how you rebuild provided the roster is rebuilt. The Brewers look completely different from how they used to. They were good in 2017, and better in 2018. They'll be competitive again in 2019, and their only pending free agents are Chacin and Albers. They converted prospects into Yelich, who just won the NL MVP, and he's under affordable control for four more years
10:38
The Brewers are rebuilt. They just didn't blow it up like the Astros did
Chuck-it
10:39
Is there enough there to build a trade around Stroman and Swanson?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
Yes
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