Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/16/16
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Jeff Sullivan
Welp okay
Hello friends and welcome to delayed Friday baseball chat
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
Hello friend
Sandy Kazmir
Where's my burrito? Where's my burrito? Where's my burrito?
Jeff Sullivan
at the store
Is there a word to describe how one should feel when one's favorite team signs a player who hasn't pitched in the majors in 7 years and hasn't been good in over a decade?
Jeff Sullivan
The optimist in me would submit the word "intrigued"!
When there's so little clear reason for a team to have done something, I think that's when you have to reconsider your own assumptions. Obviously they see a glimmer. That's weird! And it's different!
It's worse when your favorite team signs players who are obviously bad for conventional reasons
In 708 plate appearances spread over parts of eight seasons Jason Bourgeois has produced 0.1 fWAR & 0.0 bWAR. Is the fact that his career has been so proletariat in nature a good indicator that there is indeed some sort of Cosmic Humour?
Jeff Sullivan
Don Money had a 16-year career. 36 WAR! So some things balance out
The Decadent Moose
More impressive: Chris Neil and his 1,000 games or Don Kessingger, his 2,000 games and 8 WAR?
Jeff Sullivan
Chris Gomez topped 1,500 career games, and he managed a career WAR of -2.2!
Alternatively, there's the case of Doug Flynn. Just 1,309 games, but -8.3 WAR
In 8 of his 11 seasons, he performed below replacement-level
Second-round draft pick!
Article idea: for each team, identify the best ever player outright released by that team (who then went on to have an amazing career somewhere else)--i.e. Mets and Justin Turner
Jeff Sullivan
Probably a few articles, given the work that would require, but I like it. Enjoyable!
Although it's worth noting Turner was non-tendered, not released
Maybe that would be easier to research. Best players ever non-tendered
Is 8y as a top 10 team preferable, by baseball FO consensus, to being a top 5 team for 4 years?
Jeff Sullivan
Probably yes. The dream is to build a consistently competitive product. They'll always tell you the goal is a championship, and they all *want* a championship, but they also know it's basically random. As long as you're always pretty good, you're doing a solid job
Do the Cubs have any more moves up their sleeves? Have they done enough this offseason to stay atop the NL? Are they better than last year (with Schwarber without Fowler/Chapman)?
Jeff Sullivan
As far as I can tell the Cubs and the Dodgers are basically even. They're the two best teams in baseball, probably, and I don't know how they could reasonably separate from one another. So early odds are for an NLCS rematch. If the Cubs do anything else, it's probably to get a cost-controlled starting pitcher, as has been expected all offseason
It would be difficult for me to say they're better than they were a year ago, when they were one of the better teams in recent memory. That's a crazy-high bar. But they do have a shot if they stay healthy enough; the talent level is extreme
If you had been running a team the last 10 years, what would have been your most disastrous signing and trade?
Jeff Sullivan
"Disastrous" is strong but I used to obsess a little over Ryan Doumit before I knew anything about framing and catcher defense
The Mariners basically made my own most disastrous signing when they grabbed Chone Figgins
This is a really interesting question that I wish I could answer better in the moment
For some reason I'm having trouble pulling names off the top of my head. But I would have screwed up an awful lot!
Some chance I might've been willing to trade Mike Trout as a prospect or a rookie, if I had him in my system
The Rockies lose 3 OF(Cargo, Blackmon, Parra) over the next 3 years, they have 3 OF in the Pipeline(Dahl, Patterson, Tapia) all are LHH, Desmond is a career 129wRC+ against LHP and is good IF depth is 14m AAV really that crazy?
Jeff Sullivan
I don't think it's crazy to give Ian Desmond $14 million a year, and I don't have a strong qualm against $70m/5yr. It's reasonable for someone with his athleticism. It gets worse when you consider that the Rockies don't have a great way to use him yet, and they're probably not good enough to compete yet, and they gave up the most valuable draft pick that could have been forfeited this winter
That last part, I really don't like.
Kicks Desmond up to the equivalent of, say, $80 - 85 million over five years. For an average player? Ehh
What do you see for Cory Spangenberg's 2017 role and PT?
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