Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/16/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:56
In my head I have trouble imagining a more league-average-y starter
9:58
He's kind of what he was in 2012. Similar stuff, similar approach. Give him a good framer and he can make the JA Happ thing happen
DynastyBallBase
9:59
Will Wilmer Flores ever be freed to regular ABs?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Not as long as he struggles so much against righties
10:00
But because he's still only 25 it stands to reason someone will give him a starting job at some point before he's 30
Kristen
10:00
Who are some good young #3-SP's or near-ready SP prospects with that kind of ceiling that TEX could legitimately acquire this offseason?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
Well, it's no accident they've been in so much contact with the Rays
But because I mentioned his name earlier: Brock Stewart! Someone should go get Brock Stewart
JKD
10:02
Feels like given both the state of the market for starters and relievers, and the trends in starter-to-dominant-reliever conversion, it might make a lot of sense for some of the fringey backend starters to start marketing themselves as shutdown relievers, once say Hammel and Nova sign. Most good teams are fairly set on starters but the top-end relief drawer is rapidly emptying, and pretty much every good team still needs more bullpen help.
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
I don't know how, say, Colby Lewis could market himself as a great reliever. Or Doug Fister. Or Brett Anderson or whoever. Pitchers need to prove themselves in the bullpen before they'll be paid to be great in the bullpen. Teams don't just throw out that big money on spec
Matt
10:03
What would your HoF ballot look like?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
It would have 10 players, and it would be similar to the saber-community consensus
Yes to Bonds, yes to Raines, yes to Edgar, etc
Baron von Waffles
10:05
Do you see Archie Bradley taking a step forward this year at all?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
Terrible against lefties, no quality out-of-zone whiff pitch. The arm speed is there but I'd bet on him remaining mostly the same
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
10:08
The Rays took a converted INF in the Rule 5 draft who has 50 innings in A ball. KATOH loves him and all reports I've heard have been glowing on his control and numbers. What's the thought process for the other 29 teams here? Do other teams not expect him to stick/have room or do MLB teams not notice unranked converted players barely at A level? I also read a comment that the Mariners didn't promote him to try to keep him more of a secret before the draft--is that a thing?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
Gadea pitched at such a low level
10:10
Nothing at Triple-A, nothing at Double-A, nothing at High-A
10:11
He wasn't even with Clinton until the middle of July, so any promotion would've given him hardly any time at the next level anyway
Part of it is just that Gadea is unknown, and teams can't cover *everybody*. But he was also so far away that it's easy to look at his numbers and feel like they aren't exceptional, as projecting 2017 big-league performance goes
10:12
I like him as a grab and I really hope he sticks. Relievers can move awfully fast
Steve
10:12
What was your favourite album of 2016?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
King Charles, Gamble for a Rose
Tanaka
10:14
Shouldn't the Yankees approach me about an extension? I am clearly the best free agent pitcher available next year ( assuming I opt out)
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
Tanaka would be opting out of $67 million over three years, which is not nothing. Legitimate concerns do remain about his elbow, and those concerns are shared league-wide. Teams still figure Tanaka will blow up at some point; it's how things usually happen
10:16
That being said, I would expect some conversation. The Yankees won't let him go for nothing. But if the Yankees don't make a strong push to keep him, that's going to be because they know more about his medicals than anyone else
J. Peterman
10:17
What do you see as Jorge Polanco's floor and ceiling? Which is more likely?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
I actually see a lot of Ketel Marte in there
10:19
Polanco is way more of a fly-ball hitter but he's a fly-ball hitter who strikes me as under-powered, which isn't a great combo
If he gains just a little more strength or consistency, the extra homers make him a legitimate starter, and maybe he even becomes pretty good. But the present package would have him as a below-average regular middle infielder
Kristen
10:20
Half-season rental of David Price netted DET TOR's #1 SP prospect at the time (according to FG) Daniel Norris along with Matt Boyd. What could TEX get for a half-season rental of Darvish at the deadline? Need good young SP's/near-ready SP prospects big time.
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
Yeah, you can be guided by the Price deal, or by the Johnny Cueto deal
10:21
Darvish will need to show he's totally healthy, but if he's great and the Rangers aren't, then come July, Darvish would be at the top of the market. He's perceived as a game-changer
J
10:22
If Andrelton Simmons or Billy Hamilton played 1B what would the defensive metrics show?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
The best defensive season at first base since 2002 comes in around 20 UZR/150 games
10:23
Now, we're talking about very different skillsets. Simmons would adjust well, because of his hands, but his range and arm would be of little use. Hamilton's speed would mean almost nothing so he'd be a near-total waste
10:24
You'd probably see Simmons around +15 runs or so. First base takes some getting used to. I'm not even sure Hamilton would be better than 0 - +5. He's perfect in the middle of the outfield
kevinthecomic
10:24
I heard Adam Ottavino on a radio interview yesterday. He mentioned that he regularly visits this website. Conceivably, then, he knows that his employer (the Colorado Rockies) is clueless. No question here, just, awkward!!!!!
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
I don't think the Rockies are clueless. And just looking at them generally, they're in a good spot, with a lot of young players established or arriving
10:25
They just don't act optimally, or close to it. Maybe they can't, because of where they play.
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