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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/16/16
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Will
10:25
Which is more likely: Harvey as top 3 CY voting or traded by the deadline?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
The former
If Harvey's good, the Mets are probably good, and there's no reason to trade him. If he's bad, no one will want to trade for him
striker
10:28
Any scenario where White Sox can get both Rodgers and Dahl back from the Rockies for Quintana? Perhaps include Jones? Quintana + Jones for Rodgers, Dahl, Pint, Murphy + 3 other pieces.
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
Something built around Quintana/Jones and Rodgers/Dahl is not too lopsided either way. But I do hesitate to believe the Rockies would want to push forward like that, especially with Dahl lined up to help right away. I don't know how much they'd believe Quintana would fit in that ballpark, and that would be a very heavy investment
10:30
If Colorado played elsewhere, the equation would be different. But Quintana in Coors could be a particular risk
He is, after all, mostly a contact pitcher
Jack
10:30
I’m a big Reds fan. It seems like they would have to have every one of their young, talented players to perform near the top of the potential to be able to compete with an unbelievably strong Cubs organization even by 2019. Do you agree? If you’re the GM what would you do at this point?
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
It's almost impossible for me to imagine the Reds catching up to the Cubs within three years
10:31
Their rebuild is going slowly. They need to hit on a number of their young pitchers and there's not much left for them to sell. If I'm the Reds I just invest heavily in player development and I poke around for my own new equivalents of Keon Broxton
(who I love)
L
10:31
Why is everyone asking about the Sox trading Abreu? He's coming off a subpar year and he is only getting older. I don't think teams would be too interested. What say you?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
He's a power-hitting regular with three years of affordable team control left, and the White Sox have no reason to keep him around given the complete and total teardown
Teams would be very interested, but maybe more in July, when there are fewer similar players available
Right now, guys like Bautista, Encarnacion, and Napoli are still free agents
The Talk
10:33
My fourth grade son just asked me what "WAR" means- which i guess now shows up on baseball cards. Have a simple talk track?
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
Are you sure he was asking about WAR
are you sure he wasn't asking about war
It's easier to explain the first one than the second one
Erik
10:33
Steamer projects heavy regression for Odubel Herrera, falling to a 97 wRC+ and just 2.4 WAR. That would make his extension seem much closer to fair than it seems. But do you really think he'll fall that far? He does have a high BABIP, but also has the profile to sustain one.
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
I don't think he actually has that profile -- he doesn't, for example, sting the ball consistently, or avoid pop-ups
The smart money would be on Herrera to regress at the plate. But I think he has proven himself to be an average or better-than-average regular. He continues to improve and he still gets the job done in center field
silvpak
10:35
is austin barnes a 2b option for the dodgers? the bat seems to play at mi and he's *very* slight of frame behind the plate; any reason he can't man 2b full time and act as the #3 catcher? i'd be loathe to deal from verdugo/de leon/bellinger for dozier.
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
They like him too much as a backstop
YKnotDisco?!
10:35
Good morning Jeff. Curious where your favorite ballpark to watch a game in person is located?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
It's Seattle, but I haven't been to that many ballparks
Chase
10:35
What does Houston still need to add? Frontline SP to go with Keuchel?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
Yep. No. 1 or No. 2 starting pitcher
10:36
And that's almost literally it
Yosemite Sam
10:36
Does Buccholz have significant trade value?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Heavens no
Wil Myers
10:37
How much better can I get? Can I cut down on the K's? SB was an anomaly correct?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Somewhat surprisingly, Myers just ran a better-than-average contact rate. Where he struggled was with taking a whole bunch of called third strikes. So Myers could stand to improve his two-strike approach and discipline, which would make him more offensively complete
10:38
I don't think he's coming close to 30 steals again, but I do definitely buy Myers as a strong baserunner
Andrew
10:38
FG projects the Mets for only 84 wins, even though they have accomplished what they've wanted to this offseason. What should the Mets do in the short and long term to get into the 90-win range (where the Nats are)?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
I think the Steamer projections are underrating them, but they could beef up the bullpen some more
Our projections are stronger when we finally fold in ZiPS, which remains some time away
Jeff
10:39
It seemed like much of the value for the Nationals in the Adam Eaton deal was that his team-friendly contract allowed the club to go out and spend somewhere else. Now that they missed on Kenley, do you see the Nationals making another move? Or will they stick with Zimmerman at 1B and develop a Closer from options already in their bullpen?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
Wouldn't be a shock to see them in on David Robertson
10:40
failing that, Brad Ziegler could work
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