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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/18/15
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Matty Bum
10:03
I'm an A's fan and others who follow the team seem to be upset they missed out on Hyun-Soo Kim. Just eyeballing numbers and looking at what Kang did, it *seems* like he should be a steal at that price. Are scouting departments seeing something that still gives them pause about players making the transition from KBO? Or is it specific to this player?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
I mean, we've had Kang and that's it. There's still a ton of uncertainty because Eric Thames, Yamaico Navarro, and Andy Marte have dominated the KBO after washing out here. One player isn't going to completely change everyone's mind
10:05
Even the Orioles aren't sure if Kim's bat will play, and they don't see him as a quality defender. This is a small-scale risk
10:06
I'm not sure what Oakland's interest level was, but maybe Kim just preferred the Baltimore offer. Clearer path to regular playing time. Friendlier park. And the Orioles were willing to just have Kim for two years, and maybe the A's wanted more control
Massy
10:06
Should we look at the Miley trade any differently after the Iwakuma signing?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
How do you mean? This wasn't the plan.
The Boat
10:07
Will Kris Bryant top his 6 WAR rookie season in 2016?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
I say he ends up just short
Matt
10:08
Cargo to Nats for Cole, Fedde, and Robles. Do the Nats go for it?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
Think they'd prefer someone more CF-capable
cards fan here
10:09
Sullivan, without knowing precisely what the future is, would you say it's time for my fellow fans to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
I don't want to push my tastes on you, but from where I sit, yes, absolutely
Brendon
10:10
Dave Stewart said that he checked with Cleveland and that the Miller package wouldn't have netted them Salazar let alone Carrasco or more like many are saying they should have gotten. Have prices for controlled SP just skyrocketed?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
They have, but, Salazar has five years of control, and Miller has three. Salazar just struck out more than a batter an inning in the American League; Miller didn't come close, in the National League
I think if they pushed it, Arizona and Cleveland could've arrived at an agreement. But Swanson would've been of less interest to the Indians, on account of Lindor
jay
10:12
Do you think the Brewers are in a tough spot with possible trade of Lucroy? Would you say that it's complicated?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Incredibly complicated!
10:13
I heard about some offers they proposed in Nashville. Just laughably over the top
Not even good starts to negotiations. More off-putting
Gary
10:13
How much surplus value does Votto have? Could the Astros go for him?
Jeff Sullivan
10:14
Votto definitely has value in this market, after the season he just had. Don't know if he'd want to go to Houston.
Guest
10:15
justin turner's story sounds a lot like jose bautista's to me: journey man infielder who gets some good advice from a veteran and suddenly begins to tear the cover off the ball. thoughts on him for next year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
He's why the Dodgers didn't need to be the team picking up Frazier. He's easy to underrate, but I think he's an above-average player provided he's got his legs underneath him
10:17
I love the stories where players improve because they got tips from other players
I was told after the post yesterday that Tony Zych's breaking ball leaped forward in 2015 after he got some spring-training advice from Jake Arrieta
JKD
10:18
The Reds and Nats apparently are in agreement on a trade for Brandon Phillips, who remains a useful if projected-for-slightly-below-average player. I like it fine - relying on Turner and Difo to hold down one of the middle infield positions this year *could* work, but you'd also like to give them both a little more seasoning. But - given that Phillips' $27M salary (plus, apparently, deferred payments) is essentially market rate for where his talent is (maybe a little overpay, if you listen to Steamer), what are the Nats really going to give up for him? B-level pitching prospect?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
I don't know specifics, but I'd be surprised if the Nationals were paying a big price. Obviously the Reds won't come away empty-handed, but this won't take players from the top of the Nationals' prospect list
Oger
10:20
Between Swanson & Albies, whose better defensively? Who ends up moving to 2B if they both pan out and come up around the same time?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
I *think* Albies is considered superior defensively. Swanson will arrive first and he'll get first crack at SS, but Albies could make him move before too long
Dan
10:21
Are you happy with Dipoto?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
It's never 100% yes with anyone, but it's like 75/25
The Boat
10:22
Kelly Johnson and Pittsburgh are a match made in heaven, right? Veteran infielder, World Series experience, on a contending team for a one-year commitment, could play 2B and platoon at 1B, hits from the left side (which the Pirates sorely need).
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
I don't think the Pirates' version of heaven includes the acquisition of Kelly Johnson, but you could see that as something happening toward the end of January. Have to see what else they think about doing to address 1B, if they aren't stopping at Rogers
guest
10:23
Should the Mariners be concerned that Iwakuma failed his physical with the Dodgers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
Well it's not *good* news, but the Mariners had given Iwakuma an exit physical and then they offered him two years and $30 million. So they have a sense of what they're doing
Chad
10:25
Scott Kazmir has a track record of anything besides injuries?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
92 starts the last three years!
El Chapo
10:25
I know on paper the Cubs are the best team. But that is assuming the most fortuitous scenario right? For as much upside as they have their risk of regression, injury and last year being peak performances for a lot of their guys last year right? Is it 50/50 they are as good as their potential?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
On paper they're the best team because right now they're projected as the best team and the projections, at least in theory, find the 50/50 spot, not the most fortuitous scenario
Now you can argue about the projections themselves if you want, and I won't stop you, but even if I don't think it's 100% true the Cubs are the best, I think it's more than 50% true
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