Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/18/15
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Guest
10:26
you mentioned the jays' front office has changed priorities since anthopoulos' regime - can you expand on this?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
Let's just say they're less aggressive and more risk-averse
"Priorities" was probably the wrong word. It's just a different approach
Joe D
10:27
It seems like the moves that Dipoto has completed are exactly the style that Dave, Tony, and yourself have wanted the M's to go toward. Yet, you also seemed underwhelmed with the team as it stands. Why?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
Well it's just not a great baseball team. But that isn't Dipoto's fault. He's done a lot of good
Larry Bernandez
10:28
Cliff Lee to LAD make most sense?
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
I don't know how much injury risk you can have on one pitching staff
Without doubt the Dodgers would be interested, though. Lee is probably in a position where he can be picky with geography if he likes
JKD
10:29
If the Nats are pretty convinced Harper is gone after '18, it does present a pretty fascinating conversation about value. They want to contend this year, and can. Probably next year too. So at what point do you *think* about trading him - or is he so valuable that you can't possibly get enough in return to justify moving him? Or is this a wait-and-see?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
I think you just keep him and deal with the consequences of his exit. They'll be good for the three years, and I don't think another team would offer what it would take, because everybody knows Harper is going to be a free agent.
Soler
10:30
the Cubs are underselling me. Me for Inciarte? Com'on. That's like selling Vlad Guerriero for someone like Austin Jackson. Different era, but the ceilings are so different.
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
Different ceilings, absolutely. On the other hand, Inciarte has been worth 6.1 WAR, and Soler has been worth 0.8
10:31
Evaluating players by ceilings is an easy way to get screwed. You have to focus mostly on what's actually reasonable to expect
El Chapo
10:31
Are we in a golden age of data on post TJ SP's with having the ability to understand how durable these guys can be?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
It's like the one benefit of all the surgeries. We'll know plenty more 5-10 years from now
majordanby
10:34
worst free agent decision made by a team so far?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
Not easy. Off the top of my head, the Tigers probably didn't need to hurry to give Mike Pelfrey two guarantee years
Soler
10:34
Prediction for Kyle Hendrick? My buddie seems to think that he's the 2nd coming of Greg Maddux
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
I predict he is not the second coming of Greg Maddux
Phil
10:35
The Baltimore Sun has quoted Angelos saying that the $150M was only for Davis and he will not necessarily spend that money elsewhere on "overpriced" FA's which only drag the cost of baseball away from the proletariat (I am paraphrasing). How can this be perceived as anything other than admitting the money is there but not to be spent to better the team unless their name is Chris Davis? Obviously all owners can "afford" a lot and they spend within certain means and the O's budget like the size of market they are, but this seems a silly strategy. Doesn't this embolden Boras if he knows it is all or nothing?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
It works to set a limit, and it keeps people from thinking the Orioles will just spend that money regardless. I've definitely gotten the sense the Davis talks are coming from ownership interest -- Angelos likes him plenty -- and the Orioles aren't sure who they'd even be bidding against. This is a scattered answer and for that I'm sorry
10:38
If the Orioles miss out on Davis they'll spend some of that money to plug the holes they still have. But I think it means they wouldn't turn their attention to one of the premium corner outfielders
The Boat
10:38
Twins get any real relief pitching this winter?
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
They'll add to it, and it'll be done quietly, and it'll be underwhelming
Currywurst
10:40
How much MLB playing time does Max Kepler get next year
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
Let's go with 150-200 PA, but there's room for a lot more if they see regression in the corners
Joe Jack
10:42
How about Lucroy to the Twins for a package centered around Kepler?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
I don't know how much the Twins want to push chips forward to win in the next two years, but if they're feeling emboldened, Lucroy is a wonderful fit
Steve
10:43
Will Bruce soon follow BP & Frazier out the door?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
Gotta think so. Wide open opportunity in Anaheim
DLowe
10:43
Hey Jeff - do you expect Giles to close in Houston? How many saves do you think he will get, with that good team and excellent rotation?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
He'll close. He'll get however many saves closers tend to get on good teams
Kevin
10:45
Hey Jeff, I go to college in the San Jose area and have recently become interested in hiking. Have you ever hiked in the area and, if so, do you have any recommendations?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
Pinnacles is only an hour and a half away. I'm sure I don't need to tell you about Yosemite but that's usually a zoo. For a quieter time, you could head toward Bishop/Long Valley (caldera)
Tyler
10:46
I really want, and I'm not a rangers fan, for Profar to become the best out of the young shortstops rn, just because I think the story would be great. What are we looking at a 2% chance of that happening?
Jeff Sullivan
10:46
That sounds about right. There are so many freaking good young shortstops right now
the farm
10:47
My daughter will study volcanoes (and other topics) in a Stanford seminar next summer in Pozzuoli, Italy. What do you know about volcanoes in that region?
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
It's probably the most at-risk region in the entire world
10:48
Everyone knows about Vesuvius, but there's a volcanic field just west, and there are millions of people on the ground
look up Campi Flegrei if you're feeling curious
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