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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/21/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:36
I agree with you that it seems like the White Sox would have to come in over the top of everyone else. But this is at least an opportunity for them to feel things out with two premium free agents. I doubt they'd be Harper or Machado's first choice, but the market might push one of them in Chicago's direction, for any number of reasons
9:37
Maybe the Yankees don't want to give a big enough guarantee. Maybe the Dodgers aren't able to clear their outfield. Maybe the Phillies draw a line in the sand, and the White Sox go one or two years longer
Matt
9:37
Why do I have an impending sense of doom about the Phillies' offseason plans not working at all?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
Impatience, mostly
Tim
9:37
The Phillies can’t not come away with Harper or Machado after their owner’s “stupid money” comment, right?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
Sure they can
9:38
Now, they'd hear about it for months, obviously
9:39
But everything will ultimately be settled on the field, one way or another, and you can't let angry sports fans drive front-office behavior
Guess what! Philadelphia's default is angry, regardless of whether you try to appease them
JKD
9:40
Anibal Sanchez - you buy his 2018? If that's who he is now, hard not to see this as a huge value for the Nats.
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
I don't buy the ERA at all, but it's easy for me to figure his new cutter allowed him to alleviate his home-run problem. His K-BB% has stayed pretty consistent. Fine contract, but not a *great* one, since he'll be pitching at 35 years old
frank in massapequa
9:42
Jeff - big fan, love the chats.  With Andrew Miller signed, who should my Mets be targeting as an additional lefty bullpen piece?  I'll hang up and listen.
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
You're going to laugh, but, know who was really amazing last season?
Oliver Perez!
9:43
Usually in these chats I insert some numbers to back up what I'm talking about. But in this instance I'm going to have all of you go to the trouble of looking up Perez yourselves
I think it'll open your collective eyes
John
9:44
Was Emilio Pagan and the 38th pick of next year’s draft really worth giving up Brock Burke, Kyle Bird and Yoel Espinal for?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
Bird is a relief prospect with some walk trouble. Espinal is a relief prospect with some walk trouble. The Rays also got Rollie Lacy, a starter with some strikeouts and a big-time grounder rate
9:47
Lacy doesn't yet have to go on the 40-man roster
9:48
I like Burke as a prospect, but from a cold asset-value perspective, what's he worth? $10 million? The draft pick would return a lot of that, and Pagan is already a big-league pitcher with a high-spin fastball
9:49
I don't know enough about all of the prospects -- Eric Longenhagen is writing about this trade -- but it doesn't seem like the Rays did anything especially good or especially bad. They cleared a 40-man spot
Dmitry
9:50
Hi Jeff! Why do so many writers believe Harper would be a better fit for the Yanks? With his suddenly crappy defense (whats up with that??), he would need to RAKE to be as good as Manny, and he's only done that once or twice in his career
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
People have been envisioning Harper as a Yankee for years. A lot to ask to expect them to stop
9:51
Gigantic market. Team with more resources than anyone else. Lefty-friendly ballpark. The fit is pretty obvious
As far as the defense goes, I'd recommend the following article by Mike Petriello https://www.mlb.com/news/bryce-harpers-defense-a-free-agent-question/c...
9:53
Either one of Harper or Machado would work. Andujar is just not a good third baseman
JKD
9:53
Who are the 2B that get left holding the bag?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Would've been easy to say Ian Kinsler, but here we are!
9:54
I'll pick Brian Dozier as the guy who has to settle for less than he wants, somewhere other than where he wants. LeMahieu is too interesting, Lowrie is too good, Harrison is too versatile
Questions Abound
9:56
What would it take to pry Vlad Jr away from Toronto? Trout+Simmons?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Trout would probably get you most of the way there by himself, and I don't want to have to write about this
Dear baseball: Please do not trade Mike Trout for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. during the next week and a half
Red
9:58
Anibal Sanchez was worth 2.4 WAR in 2018, which is more than the 2.2 WAR he was worth across 2015-2017 combined. He ran the lowest BABIP of his career last year (.255). The previous year (2017), his ERA was 6.41 and had risen for four consecutive seasons. Why was this a multiyear candidate when guys like Harvey and Cahill were available for 1yr? Do you take Anibal over Tanner Roark, who was traded to clear room for him, in a vacuum?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Sanchez has been healthier lately, and health mostly determines length of commitment
Purple Mays Haze
10:00
Is there any data to support the idea that a prospect loses development time if he's on the MLB bench (vs another year in AAA). Asking for Barreto...
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
I'm not certain it's ever been exhaustively studied, but then in Barreto's specific case, it's worth observing he's gotten some winter-league time in the outfield. I think the A's are starting to envision him as a versatile sort
One should also observe that Barreto last year had one walk and 29 strikeouts
10:02
It wouldn't be the worst thing for Barreto to return to Triple-A, and then it wouldn't be the worst thing if a more developed Barreto were promoted to be a multi-positional backup
Jim
10:03
Will we ever see a day when the Mets operate like a big market team again?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
Sure
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