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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/21/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:03
But our concept of a big-market team is also going to change, as free agency changes
RK
10:03
What % of questions come from names you recognize?  Am I one of them?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
I try not to pay much attention to the names
Cathedral_of_Beisbol
10:05
2/25 for Miller seems like an overpay unless Miller is his old self which, given his injury history, seems unlikely.  Thoughts?
Jeff Sullivan
10:05
In last year's first month, Miller allowed zero runs in ten innings, with 17 strikeouts
10:06
His season was ultimately derailed, mostly because of a bad knee. And this gets into the fun of the market: No one actually knows if 2019 Miller will be recovered. Everyone interested has looked at the data, and they've looked at the medicals, but either Miller will be fine, or he won't be. The Cardinals don't know. The Indians don't know
10:08
Before the knee stuff, Miller was one of the very best relievers in all of baseball. He's a year removed from being that guy, but it's not like he needed elbow or shoulder surgery. If healthy, Miller could've gotten like $60 million. How much do you knock that down? The Cardinals knocked it down by $35 million
10:09
Necessarily, because the Cardinals won the bidding here, they've assumed the most generous position. They've priced in the least risk. But it's not hard at all to see how this could work out very well for them
Alec
10:10
Where does the Cleveland baseball club go from here? Are there any moves they can make that would make them legitimate threats to the Astros, Yankees, or Red Sox?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
Those projections are imperfect, I understand, but they're already a threat. And that's with an incomplete outfield and an incomplete bullpen
10:12
Headed into next year, it feels like the Indians will actually be underrated. That is a very good baseball team. It's a team with Lindor, Ramirez, Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco, and Clevinger
Onlydegoodcyyoung
10:12
Best move from yesterday's spate of signings?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
I'm a Cahill guy
Mr. F
10:13
What contract is Trout looking at in 2020?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
Let's see what Machado and Harper do first
Let's also see what Trout does first
10:14
But Trout would be going into his age-29 season. If no one gets to $400 million this winter, then he will down the road
10:15
At least now, we can look at Harper and Machado and identify negatives. For the moment, Trout doesn't have any negatives
KJ
10:16
Is it possible when considering trades for fans to not overvalue their favorite team's prospects, while simultaneously undervaluing the MLB player projected in return? It's exhausting to hear how a team should go out and get a top 5 player while only giving up their 7-15 prospects and utility players...
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
You can do it, as long as you're trading for a rental!
Dan
10:17
Is the Yankees apparent new strategy of "let's hope free agents are willing to take less $ to play for us" viable in the long-term?  It apparently worked for Happ, but obviously not Corbin, and it just seems to be a strange way to approach free agency for a team that has the highest revenues in the sport.
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
The Yankees understand you don't build a good team through free agency. They didn't get Severino as a free agent. They didn't get Paxton as a free agent. They didn't get Judge or Stanton or Hicks or Sanchez or Andujar or Gregorius or Torres as a free agent
10:19
Free agency gets a lot of attention during the winter because it's the most obvious market out there of available players. But free agency is there to offer roster tweaks. It's not where you want to find all your best players, because free agents are almost always going to be players entering decline
This is among the many reasons why more money has to find its way toward the start of players' careers
Jake
10:20
What chance would you give Harper not being signed by the time players start reporting to spring training?
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
1%
Ben
10:20
Please tell me good things about the Cubs right now. Seems like there is a lot of risk and with their unwillingness to spend, I am getting concerned. HELP!
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
There is no unwillingness to spend. They've just already spent. Last year's opening-day payroll was $182 million. Now they're projected at $209 million. They're north of the competitive-balance-tax threshold
10:22
The Cubs remain a good team, and I don't consider them worse than the Brewers or Cardinals. They just don't have much in the way of pitching-staff depth
Jack
10:23
Is there any team less afraid of trading within their division than the A’s?
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
Historically, probably not, but I think moving forward, teams are going to worry about it less and less often. It's just not a real actual problem
Jay
10:24
Speaking of the 3 team trade, what does the future hold for Profar. Will the pitcher park in OAK, dampen his emergence?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
There's already evidence to believe Profar was a slight overachiever last year at the plate
10:25
Now, he crushed a few homers and he has a good understanding of the strike zone, so of course he could still get better
10:26
But he might just end up a slightly better version of Marcus Semien
What is nothing
10:27
Evan Gattis seems like he could be a fit in CLE: righthanded bat to dh 80-100 games, pinch hit the rest. Gives Bauers time off against some lefties and time in the outfield. Could be what Napoli was for '16 CLE for '19! How much do you see him signing for, money and years?
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
Very cheap. CJ Cron was designated for assignment and he signed for $4.8 million, and compared to Gattis, Cron is younger and better
Batflips for BB
10:28
Can anything stop Jerry DiPoto from making a trade?
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
Yes
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