JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/4/15

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/4/15

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Jeff Sullivan

9:47

He'll get six years and nearly David Price's full seven-year commitment

Bob Pollard

9:47

I get not wanting to offer Samardzjia $100 million (if rumors are true), but would you rather sign him at that rate or go with a 37-year-old John Lackey at a smaller price?

Jeff Sullivan

9:47

I'm generally in favor of the smaller and shorter FA pitcher commitments

Dustin

9:48

Freddie Freeman's slash line has seen a downward trend since he put up a near MVP-caliber 2013 season, but he's still a relatively young guy. Should I be worried about this? Should the Braves be looking to deal him (like they've dealt pretty much everybody else worth rooting for) before the bottom totally falls out?

Jeff Sullivan

9:49

All I see is BABIP fluctuation. Over three years, he's dropped from 150 wRC+ to 133, but everything outside of his BABIP has stayed the same. He's newly 26 and he seems good at defense. He's a keeper

Dan

9:50

Why is Mike Leake expected to get such a big contract when he's just a 1.5-2 win pitcher? He's really not very good... at all.

Jeff Sullivan

9:51

I'm more with you than against you, but he might have slight FIP-beating skills, and he's young, and if he signs with an NL team he can hit a bit

9:52

But, what is Pelfrey getting? $16 million over 2 years? Could very well end up a better decision than giving a fortune to Mike Leake.

Kimball

9:52

Do you think massive roster overhauls are more likely to underperform than rosters that change more incrementally?

Jeff Sullivan

9:52

I could see that, for psychological reasons, but I bet if someone were to conduct actual good research, any effect would be quite small

9:53

The Dodgers, as an example, just won their division

The A's and Rays put together extended stretches of improbable success

Dave

9:53

Obviously Dipoto's not done yet, but Montero isn't the M's opening day first baseman, right? Napoli seems like the kind of buy-low, high-OBP type that JeDi likes, but he also might be in the midst of a significant decline

Jeff Sullivan

9:53

No chance they go with Montero

Derek

9:53

Odds that Butler is not on the A's opening day roster

Jeff Sullivan

9:54

I don't think he's gone before he turns 30. I think they just work to establish some depth behind him in case he sucks again

Andy

9:54

If you were a multi-billionaire, would you want to be an MLB owner?

Jeff Sullivan

9:55

If I was really interested in adding to my wealth, yeah, the investment is obvious. They're money machines. But it also seems like it can be a lot of work and stress. If I had that much money, I'd probably donate an awful lot of it and then try to disappear

Dr. Octopus

9:55

If the A's sign Kim, do they trade Josh Reddick? Last year of his deal

Jeff Sullivan

9:55

Certainly increases the odds

Nelson

9:56

How far off is Jay Bruce from being in the Trumbo, Chris Carter, Howard, camp of no-value one-dimensional sluggers?

Jeff Sullivan

9:56

He's got a good deal more defensive utility

Carter and Howard are defensive zeroes. Trumbo is all right

9:57

11/10 on twitter announcement

Jeff Sullivan

9:57

thank you, friend

TF Fredrik

9:57

Its not out of the realm of possibility for J. Heyward to put up a fluky 25+ home run year is it? Kind of a question about any good hitter with limited power shown really. How likely is it that they put up one huge power year? If Joe Mauer can hit 30+ one year, its something we don't ever expect but happens.

Jeff Sullivan

9:58

I mean, Heyward's already hit 27, right? And he's 26 years old. Last year he hit way too many grounders, but the year before he didn't, and there's no question he has the strength. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see Heyward become a more consistent power threat

9:59

In 2011, Heyward hit 14 homers with 54% groundballs. In 2012, he hit 27 homers with 44% groundballs. Last year, he hit 13 homers with 57% groundballs...

Bork

10:00

Is Eric Thames watching Kim's negotiations closely? Would be a comparable contract if he decided to return to the MLB (though probably more).

Jeff Sullivan

10:00

I think Thames' track record could work against him, and teams know he's not a defensive strength. But, yeah, it does seem like he ought to be able to return at some point if he wants

Crr

10:01

which team that sucked eggs last year is most likely to be a playoff team this year besides the red sox?

Jeff Sullivan

10:01

Mariners or Nationals

If the Nationals count

M's Fan

10:02

What do the Mariners do at 1B? Do they sign a guy like Napoli, or trade for someone we aren't thinking about? Or go with a sick Montero/Andy Wilkins platoon!!!!

Jeff Sullivan

10:02

Plenty of options but Napoli might be the least surprising

10:03

What would your guess on a contract be if Trout hadn't signed an extension and continued his current pace until free agency?

Jeff Sullivan

10:03

So he'd be going into his age-26 season

10:05

More or less the same as Alex Rodriguez way back when

10:06

In 2001, the median payroll was about $63 million