Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/4/15
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Jeff Sullivan
10:07
So I'm going for simplicity: doubling it. 10 years, $500 million, with an opt-out in there
10:08
**friendly notice for everyone** this chat will be shutting down earlier than usual, because I'm having a car delivered. It's less exciting than it sounds, but it will take me away from my computer. The car is on its way
Log
10:09
Let's say you're still a Mariners fan. Maybe you are. Are you pleased with what Dipoto has done so far?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
Overall, more pleased than displeased. I like what he said about how you shouldn't evaluate moves individually -- it's all part of a big picture. Good thing to keep in mind for every team.
Still don't love the Brad Miller trade, but some of that falls on the previous regime
TF Fredrik
10:10
How much do you look at and factor in a pitchers soft & hard contact allowed? Obviously they are newer stats and we don't exactly know what predictive value they have, so whats the level to use them at this point?
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
I look at them, but I don't put a lot of stock in them unless someone has numbers at an extreme. It all regresses, but there is some hint of ability in there
Like, Dallas Keuchel is probably better at generating soft contact than Ian Kennedy
Mr. Met
10:11
Hypothetical GM questions: Would you try to replace Duda at 1B? I can see Cuddyer and possibly d'Arnaud platooning with him if he stays. Would you try to package Duda in some kind of trade if you were Alderson?
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
No harm in exploring the market and thinking about Cuddyer at 1B but it's not like that opens up an opportunity in the outfield what with Conforto/Granderson so there's no need to force anything
10:12
Wouldn't hurt to get in touch with the Orioles to see what they might do
Kimball
10:12
Of just about anyone, I would think Greinke would understand the diminishing marginal utility of each additional million, and would thus weigh other factors more heavily. In what ways do you think analytic *player* could evaluate soft factors?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
I think Greinke is familiar with the setting he's been in in LA, but he also knows SF has been highly successful and Bochy is good at commanding a cohesive clubhouse. Beyond that I don't think there's much of anything else; he also knows this is business, and it makes business sense to get the best contract you can. It's not just about his own deal. It's also about helping set a precedent for future players
Springleton
10:16
If Astros ask for Chapman, what are Reds asking for?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Velasquez would be interesting.
Appel would be a *fascinating* centerpiece. Alternatively, could see the Reds try to add to Preston Tucker
The Big Dipper
10:16
The pants look stupid but the Jerseys and tops are cool
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
To be honest I used to like the purple tops so I just have horrible taste in everything
Those tripping-balls old Phoenix Coyotes uniforms? Loved 'em. Go weird or go home
You're Arizona -- you're not going to win people over or fool anyone by going MLB-classic
Cardinal Sinner
10:19
Is it a foregone conclusion that Heyward returns to STL now or will they still try to spend their money on a SP?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
Heyward is more likely with Price off the board but by no means a guarantee. The OF market is still developing
nottingham
10:21
what do you expect out of maikel franco next season? he showed some adrain beltre(offensively) style promise before he got hurt
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
I liked what I saw from his season a lot. Addressed several questions and he's still just 23(!). I'm looking for a 3-WAR season
BK
10:22
In re: Pelfrey; Is Happ that much more valuable? Or recognition that Happ is left handed and never really been injured?
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
Left-handed, less injury history, more encouraging 2015 finish. Pelfrey allowed a .348 wOBA in the second half; Happ was at .280
Kimball
10:23
Other than the unique circumstances of the 2012 Red Sox, do you think it's really possible for a team to truly "rebuild" with a 2 year target, as the Braves seem to want to do?
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
That's too quick. A team with, say, the Phillies' resources might be able to pull it off, but you should go in thinking 4-5 years. 2 is a few standard deviations fast
EC
10:25
If Scherzer were a free agent this offseason, how would he compare to Grienke?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
I think he'd get something close to the Price deal. So, his own deal, with less money deferred
Pete Rose
10:25
Was I funny or awkward on Fox? Do I have a future on TV?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
I didn't watch you but I hate you
10:26
Which I think goes along with a lot of the regular Fox programming decisions?
tim turner
10:26
I don't really understand the cubs trying to move soler when they have castro, baez, and gleyber Torres all playing the same position and they don't have a soler replacement
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
I don't think they're trying to move Soler -- I think they're open to moving Soler. They can make multiple moves at multiple positions, and there are good alternative outfielders available if Soler goes away
10:27
Might be time to capitalize on his promise now before he's officially a disappointment
Doug
10:27
Do you think Dombrowski still has something up his sleeve?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
I don't think he's much for secrets or surprises. If there's something obvious, he'll do it
He might move someone from his pitching depth now. But I'm coming around on the Dombrowski approach of "why not just try to win right now?"
10:28
I'm afraid I've gotta go now :( car just arrived
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