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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/7/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:34
The club can hit. Prospects are coming. Not hard to see the Reds pushing for .500 in a crowded division
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
9:36
Are you surprised the Twins signed Jonathan Schoop rather than coming to terms with Brian Dozier? Or is the four year age difference and a changing front office enough to move past being the most sentimental franchise in the bigs?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
Yeah, age is a big part. Maybe the Twins feel like they can help Schoop figure things out more than the Orioles could. Also, perhaps Dozier wasn't available right now for one year. And furthermore, it can feel a little weird to arrange a reunion just months after an emotional farewell. Some teams prefer to just avoid those situations entirely
John
9:37
At what point do we go from referring to 2018 as “this season” to “last season,” and from referring to 2019 as “next season” to “this season”?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
I think it's when the calendar flips. It's very annoying
Operation Shutdown
9:40
Is Max Scherzer's contract the best big-money pitcher contract ever?  Do you see any recent SP signings living up to their deals as well as Scherzer did?
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
Still a few years to go but obviously Scherzer has been an incredible investment. The first big Kershaw contract worked out well. So has the Verlander contract for the most part. The Hamels contract hasn't been terrible
9:42
Hard to expect any recent big signings to do what Scherzer has done, since Scherzer has been exceptional. Someone like Corbin could be that guy, but there's absolutely no way of knowing right now whether his arm will hold together
Jake
9:43
What do you think attendance is going to look like at Safeco next year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:43
N/A. There won't be a Safeco next year
(This is a stupid half-joke about the naming rights)
9:44
The Mariners were dreadful in 2011, after being dreadful in 2010. In 2012, they drew 1.7 million in paid attendance
9:45
I'd expect 1.8 - 2.0 million. Some carryover from this year's success, even despite the teardown
Outta my way, Gyorkass
9:48
Let's say Kyler Murray decides to enter the NFL draft after the conclusion of a great senior season at QB for Oklahoma, and gets picked pretty high in the first round (probably guaranteeing him more $$$ than his #9 pick signing bonus would) Would he have to forfeit his signing bonus with the A's if he decides to play football? Is there a way he could plausibly make the "2 sport star" thing work?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
If this helps:
"The Oakland A's, in an unheard of agreement, allowed their first-round draft pick to play one season of college football. Not only that, but Murray inked a $4.66 million signing bonus. The money is his no matter how his baseball career begins or ends."
"Boras firmly told The Chronicle on Thursday that the A’s top draft pick will fulfill his commitment to Oakland despite speculation he might elect for the NFL draft instead."
9:50
But wait!
"Should Murray opt out of his contract with the A’s, he would have to repay the $4.66 million signing bonus in full."
That contradicts the first excerpt I posted
9:52
I do not think the two-sport-star idea is plausible. Each individual sport is unbelievably demanding, and he'd get next to no time to allow his body to rest. And that ignores all the problems that would arise from what would happen in August through October
TFS
9:53
Which top player(s) do you think will get traded at the winter meetings?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Feels like it's time for one of the Indians' starters, and probably Bauer in that event
Not at all hard to see Van Wagenen making his push for Realmuto
9:54
Some chance the Diamondbacks move quickly with Greinke, partially paying him down
9:55
But remember that the end of the winter meetings isn't any kind of deadline. The winter meetings don't make moves more likely. Even though they're in the same place, all the teams are isolated in their suites, so it's not practically different from being in their own offices around the country
I wonder if we might be nearing a Manny Machado surprise. Bryce Harper is going to take forever to find a destination, but Machado might go fast and soon
Bill G
9:57
Hi Jeff.  Thanks as always for doing these chats.  I agree that the primary issue in baseball is strikeouts.  I am OK with the shift of players in the infield, however I do not like the second baseman playing short right field.  A line drive over the infield is not penalized for a RHB, but the LHB is penalized by the line drive.  What is your opinion?  Thanks.
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
9:58
It would be easy enough to draft a rule where a specific number of players have to be on the dirt or on the grass, but then you'd be outlawing four- or two-man outfields. I don't think baseball has a problem here. At least not yet. The shifts have only exploded over the past five or six years. Give batters time to adjust
Dave
9:59
What teams do you think are pressing the hardest for Bauer/Kluber?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Dodgers make a lot of sense
10:00
Rays exist as some kind of dark horse
Padres would also be a dark horse, at least for Kluber
Yankees still want a starter but I don't know how much more subtraction they want to do from the farm
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
10:03
Let's pretend the Rays move to Portland. How do you think divisions are restructured? Sorry...Travis isn't here to ask anymore.
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
Assuming the same format is preserved (which is hardly a guarantee): Rays --> AL West, Rangers or Astros --> AL Central, Indians --> AL East
10:04
The Indians are almost a natural fit in the East anyway. The Rays are exceptional, being so far south
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