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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/7/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:05
I don't know if baseball would be more likely to move the Astros because they've already moved, or less likely to move the Astros because it's just another annoyance
Poised
10:06
There's a lot of similarities between last offseason's Christian Yellich and this offseason's Mitch Haniger. Both corner OF, same age, 3+ years of control, coming off a 4.6 win season, both career 130 wRC+ hitters. Would a Mitch Haniger trade look similar to what the Yellich trade looked like? Yellich had more history of success, while Haniger has an additional year of control.
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
Yelich was traded going into his age-26 season. Haniger is going into his age-28 season
10:07
And while Haniger has four more years of team control, Yelich had up to five, including a club option, plus the cost control of a guaranteed long-term contract
10:08
Then you throw in the fact that Yelich at least has the perception of having greater upside, which I do think is fair
10:09
Haniger is good, and underrated, and if he were traded the Mariners would get a haul back, but I think Haniger's trade value now is below where Yelich was last season. Fairly significant gap, as well
Giganthony
10:09
Volcano or Dante's Peak?
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
Dante's Peak for the visuals, Volcano for a more accurate portrayal of the behavior of lava
Outta my way, Gyorkass
10:13
Some talk has emerged of CIN coming onto the contending scene this year - where is the room for that in 2019? Every division rival is decent to excellent...just wondering where the wins are going to come from. Big time regression from several NLC teams?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
I think the Reds figure they'll hit enough. And Senzel could be ready to make a difference at any moment. Right now he might even project as the Hamilton replacement in CF
10:14
The bullpen is good enough and the rotation has more talent than you might remember. Still needs help. Lots of help. But the organization is sick of being down in the basement and they can push to be respectable. Like you observe, it's already a crowded division, so wins will be hard to come by, but you can see an 80-win roster which is better than what's been out there the last while
10:15
You can only bide your time for so long. Can't always wait for the perfect moment to strike
Larry the Cable
10:16
Who would you want for the next 2 years from 2 players who seemed to have a similar breakout last year and play the same position: Muncy or Aguilar? Both hit 35 bombs, Muncy had 100 less AB but his ratios were way better. Both are 28. Interesting comparison.
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Muncy. I think he has the better approach
10:17
Both players were amazing in the first half, but after the break, Muncy ran a 149 wRC+. Aguilar was down at 101
I do think there's a chance Muncy won't make enough contact to keep it going, but I like him as the safer bet
JPK
10:18
Which of the top free agents are most likely to sign at the Winter Meetings?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
I think Pollock makes a decision
I definitely think we see a run on relievers, like Miller, Robertson, Ottavino
10:19
Does JA Happ count as a top free agent?
Rays Fans
10:20
What is the kind of signing or trade that the Rays could make to put them in the position to steal the division? We're thinking an under-the-radar reliever.
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
Hear me out here. This could be stupid but there's an opportunity!
10:21
If Cot's is close to correct right now, the Rays have a projected opening-day payroll of...$36 million
Last year was $76 million
10:22
Clearly, there's a lot of money to spend. The young players will eventually get more expensive, but let's say there's a two-year window of spending to play with
No guarantees you can get the free agents you want, but 1) trade for Jose Martinez, 2) sign Charlie Morton for big money and two years, and 3) sign Andrew Miller for big money and two years
10:23
I'm sure there are under-the-radar players out there who are available, but given where the Rays are right now, they don't have to out-think themselves if they don't want to
10:24
Still wouldn't be as good as the Red Sox or Yankees, but it would be a very solid and mostly complete active roster
Tyler
10:25
If they remove the shift from baseball, what incentive would there be to not sell out even more for power?  knowing that if you roll over it there is an even greater chance that it can get through a hole now.  With velo where it is, getting rid of the shift is not going to change how hitters approach an at bat.
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
Clearly, hitters now are still willing to sell out for power, but banning the shift would eliminate a disincentive for doing so
Even if players themselves didn't necessarily make dramatic adjustments to their approaches, teams would be more willing to target pull hitters in a shift-less future
greg
10:27
Joey Votto began his 10yr $225M extension in the '14 season and has accumulated 23.3 WAR since then.  He's got to be pretty close to earning every bit of that, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
Pretty much
10:28
Every big contract looks worse at the end than at the start, and the Reds have wasted the start of this deal, but little of that is Votto's fault
It's like Cano. Deal's worked out fine. Too bad about everything else
Outta my way, Gyorkass
10:29
Trading for Goldy is probably one of the few ways STL had to improve their roster, but supposing they went with the "peak offense" lineup (Carp @ 3rd, JMart in the OF, etc) that's going to lead to some hilariously bad defensive arrangements, yeah?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
In a world where Rhys Hoskins was an everyday left fielder, anything's possible
10:30
In Carpenter's defense, I don't think he's *dreadful* out there. But he's not getting any younger
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