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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 12/7/18
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Sir Nerdlington
10:31
I strongly dislike the imbalanced schedule.  That is all.
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
The NL East is going to have four competitive teams. The NL Central might even get up to *five* competitive teams. The NL West has the Dodgers, and a Rockies team that's fine but that also just overachieved
10:32
The Indians have it so freakin easy
Anthony
10:33
Why is MLB now concerned about attendance, after pushing for smaller ballparks in downtown locations?
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
Because it's not like the smaller downtown ballparks are filled to capacity
Dave
10:34
Schwarber & Happ for Kluber, who says no?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
Guessing the Indians don't want to add a couple of giant strikeout rates
10:36
I don't think it would be a *terrible* trade, but I don't think it's what the Indians are looking for
TKDC
10:37
Let's say there was a rule that said that if Mike Trout is playing, you have to play with 8 players. So your lineup is 8 players and you play 8 guys in the field. If you replace him during the game, you get 2 guys. Would Trout still be valuable to a team?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Does that mean the lineup includes an automatic out, or is it just shorter?
If the former, it's a deal-breaker. If the latter, that part's not bad at all
10:38
Now the defensive limitation would obviously hurt, and I don't have any good numbers in front of me, but I think it would still be workable. You'd have to have a good amount of defensive versatility, and you'd effectively cut some wins off of Trout's value, but I think he stays an above-average player
10:39
Instead of having, say, a third baseman and a left fielder, maybe you have a fast "rover" who plays kind of between where the two players would play normally
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy
10:40
Is there any way that I can look up the total WAR produced by the players drafted and signed by a particular team over a particular time span?
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
I can't think of anywhere that makes it really easy, but Baseball Reference does provide this https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
10:41
Troy Tulowitzki said, "I'm a shortstop...if someone is better than me, I'll pack my bags and go home." Is there a better dream scenario for Ross Atkins?!
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
I just interpret that to mean Tulowitzki is strongly incentivized to not believe another shortstop is better than him
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free
10:42
Since high velo is usually the culprit in arm injuries for pitchers, has there been any research on how fast kids are throwing these days? Is there a little leaguer throwing 80 already? What’s an ideal velo for 12, 13 year olds to throw?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
I'm not the person to ask. I have no idea
But as injuries go, I think the problem isn't so much high velocity as it is throwing at 100% over and over
For some guys, 100% is 100 miles per hour. For other guys, 100% is 90 miles per hour. Your arm can only take what it can take
10:44
For Brent Suter, 100% was 87 miles per hour. Turns out it was too much
Gob
10:44
Is Brock Holt following the Daniel Murphy/Justin Turner career path?
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
Probably not, since Murphy and Turner are contact hitters, and the "powerful" version of Holt saw an increase in swings and misses
But I do think it's going to be interesting to monitor Holt's progress this season, should he get the chance to play enough
Hamboy
10:47
Please tell me I'm stupid but would Kyle Seager, $10MM and a lower level prospect to STL for Dexter Fowler (and his contract) and Ryan Helsley be a reasonable trade? "Who says no", as the kids say.
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
Seager is due $71 million over four years, assuming he'd pick up his 2022 option (which becomes a player option if he's traded)
10:48
Fowler is due something like $50 million over three years
10:49
With that $10 million you included, the money is almost exactly even
Fowler is older by a year and a half
10:50
They both project for basically the same hitting
10:51
I can see why the Mariners might think about it, kind of, since Ben Gamel isn't great. And Helsley is a real prospect. I'm less sure why the Cardinals would do it, since they have no use for Seager now with Carpenter lined up to play third
Do you move Carpenter to second and replace Wong?
10:52
Fowler is dead money, but at least he could bounce back at a position where they need more help. They're pretty well covered in the infield
Nick
10:53
Hi Jeff! The main article on the ESPN MLB page this morning is "Kluber for Schwarber" and argues that Kluber for Schwarber+Happ is a trade in which Cleveland would come out ahead, citing things like Schwarber is "at the very least" a 3-win player now. My Cleveland homer-ism aside, that's a ridiculous proposal for a player with Kluber's surplus value, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
I get the appeal of trading for two proven young major-league players in Schwarber and Happ. I just don't think it's sufficiently appealing
Outta my way, Gyorkass
10:55
Does Carlos Martinez re-emerge as a member of STL's starting rotation, or is he strictly a 'pen arm moving forward?
Jeff Sullivan
10:55
Starter unless he proves he can't do it anymore
Outta my way, Gyorkass
10:55
What are your general expectations for Jimmy Nelson this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
My expectations are low, but my interest level is high. Really badly hoping he's fully recovered, because his breakout was one of the most impressive in recent pitching history
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