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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/1/19
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Jeff Sullivan
10:11
The snarky response is that if Harold Baines can make it, Ben Zobrist can make it
The less snarky response is no
10:13
Zobrist has had a great career, and it's still not even over, but I don't think there's going to be enough openness to his argument
10:14
It's not as if utility players didn't exist before he did. He's just been a utility player who could hit and play almost every day
10:15
Don't think he falls off after the first ballot, but if Lance Berkman couldn't get anyone going, Zobrist probably won't, either
mmddyyyy
10:15
How much better is a hit than a walk?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
A single is 28% better than a walk
A double is 81% better than a walk
10:17
(And so on and so forth)
Phan
10:18
any thoughts on Jorge Alfaro for the upcoming season? Looked league avg in his rookie year.
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
He hits like a less-patient Mike Zunino, so I don't believe in the bat yet that much. But over the course of last season, Alfaro made meaningful progress behind the plate defensively, so I buy him as a legitimate option to start 100 games
10:21
Alfaro is one of those guys where his tolerability depends entirely on whether he hits two homers in a week, or zero
LPFan
10:21
Do you think players will be more likely to sign pre-FA extensions now?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
Yes
mmddyyyy
10:21
Does chase% account for batter propensity to chase?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
That is what it is
Chase rate is basically just a different term for out-of-zone swing rate, because out-of-zone swing rate is too long
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy
10:22
I'm going to celebrate when we finally have a chat wherein Harper & Machado are both not mentioned.
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
Well, they're two premium players, so if they don't show up in a chat, that might well mean something has gone terribly wrong
Friend
10:23
If the Nats sign Harper, which of the other outfielders gets traded? Eaton? Robles? Taylor? What type of return could you get for each of them?
Jeff Sullivan
10:23
Eaton
The return would be a modest two-prospect package, with one of them being major-league ready as a reliever
tommytoms
10:24
if a baseball team offered you, $175 million, would you turn it down?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
No?
I'd take it, I'd suck, and then I'd be released, $175 million richer
10:25
Or I guess like $90 million richer after taxes. That's probably still good enough
Moltar
10:26
So, for one, I think people on the pro-player side should stop using the term "luxury tax" in favor of the more accurate term "soft cap". Secondly, in the next CBA, they should push for an underpayment tax, sort of a reverse luxury tax, where an offending team that spends $X under the floor has to pay a tax on that amount directly to the players association.
Jeff Sullivan
"Since 2007, players have received between 53 and 57 percent of revenue annually, including 54.8 percent in 2018. Those figures, which include amateur signing bonuses and minor-league salaries, are audited and given to the union. They are not in dispute."
10:28
Spending doesn't actually seem to be the problem. It's just that the salaries need to be redistributed to players when they're younger and better. And baseball could certainly stand to do more to incentivize short-term winning
Dylan
10:29
Jed Lowrie’s wRC+ over the last 2 seasons is 121. Manny Machado’s is 122.
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
I can do you one better. 2017-2018 WAR:
Manny Machado, 8.8
Jed Lowrie, 8.5
Justin Upton, 8.4
Bryce Harper, 8.3
10:31
But Lowrie is 34. Machado is 26. That's like 75% of the argument
Padsfan
10:32
I don't understand the need for Reamoulto for the Padres. Mejia could be as good in a few years and Hedges is great defensively. Why not try a yeae?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
It remains unclear whether Mejia can actually stick as a catcher. Realmuto is the best catcher in the game
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
10:33
Hypothetical: If you had no viable starting pitching depth, but a great player under control like Jose Ramirez or Mike Trout, would you rather trade your Ramirez our Trout and replenish your depth, or sign a bunch of free agents to take advantage of having an insanely good controlled talent?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
I'd invest very heavily in tech and player development, so as to try to create our own starting pitching depth. Pitchers can be so pliable, and I have a deep belief that good pitching can pop up out of almost nowhere, given the right instruction and guidance
Michael
10:37
Hi Jeff, how would you go about optimizing Carlos Rodon? Is going full-Corbin and greatly increasing his slider usage the easiest starting point? Would love to hear your thoughts and if you've heard any chatter about what the Sox have in mind with him.
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