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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/1/19
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Jeff Sullivan
10:38
I can only offer so much in an on-the-fly chat format, but if I were Rodon, I'd definitely throw more sliders, and perhaps more importantly, I'd throw a lot more sinkers at the expense of my four-seamer. Not only does a sinker pair better with a slider, but I think Rodon's sinker in particular pairs well with his mediocre changeup. That's where I'd start
10:39
Last year, Rodon threw 49% four-seamers, 11% sinkers, 26% sliders, and 14% changeups. I'd try something like...10%, 40%, 40%, 10%
Carl
10:41
Let's say all offers were equal. Among the reported suitors, where would you sign if you were Bryce? Manny?
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
Harper to the Phillies, Machado to the Padres. But I don't know how much Machado might want to play in the spotlight. He obviously wouldn't get the same attention in San Diego
10:42
Could be a good thing
mmddyyyy
10:42
At what point in spring training will you start watching games?
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
Full games? No point
Video clips? Immediately
Jim Leyland Palmer
10:42
Obviously we have yet to see the contacts Harper and Machado will wind up settling on. But, do you think Scot Boras has lost a little cachet from this offseason?
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
Also last offseason
10:43
His methods don't work so well when owners are increasingly comfortable relying on their front offices to negotiate
greg
10:43
We've seen the Realmuto trade talks in "advanced stages" for a while now.  Do you think this is the Marlins trying to drum up a bidding war among the handful of teams who have made their offers and are just waiting them out?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
If the talks *weren't* in advanced stages by now, then the Marlins would have to have been criminally incompetent
10:46
Also:
"As @CraigMish reported @Marlins and #Brewers have talked regarding Christian Yelich. I’m hearing many teams in mix. Nothing is in advanced stages. Lewis Brinson is a target for Miami."
A day and a half later, Yelich went to Milwaukee
10:47
These things move fast, eventually. Everyone in the Realmuto sweepstakes is trying to out-game everyone else
Sharp
10:47
If Harper stays in DC, can't they convert Soto (a fairly mediocre fielder) to 1st?
Jeff Sullivan
10:47
They could, but they wouldn't have to. Pretty early to pigeonhole a 20-year-old
Marc
10:49
It's probably for the millionth time, but could you explain how the Yankees could be projected for about one WAR above the Red Sox but also be projected to win 95 while the Red Sox win 96?
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
I don't have a specific answer for you. All I can say is that projected WAR and projected standings follow different calculations, such that there's not an exact 1-to-1 relationship. David Appelman might know more of the details. And ultimately the differences between the two are virtually negligible
Theo
10:52
How is my Hamels decision looking today?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
One year, $20 million
JA Happ got two years, $34 million
Charlie Morton got two years, $30 million
10:54
You could say that Hamels signed for twice as much as guys like Harvey, Cahill, and Sabathia, but Hamels is also more reliable than they are
10:55
Not great, not bad. It's not only Hamels' fault the Cubs are basically out of wiggle room
Ginny
10:56
It feels like over the course of this winter I've gone from the 20/80 "chances of a strike are overblown" crowd to 80/20 "I don't know what winter those people are watching." Agree, disagree?
Jeff Sullivan
10:56
I do agree that that's been your course!
10:58
But at least on the internet, the union side is winning the messaging battle. I personally remain a work-stoppage skeptic, given the amount of money there is in the game today. I think everyone understands the way that players are compensated needs to change. I don't think baseball will allow for the game to go dark at a time when it might be harder to win fans back afterward than ever
10:59
Baseball is already dealing with attendance and attention issues. There are more forms of entertainment vying for eyes and money than ever before in the history of the globe. Not a great time for MLB to temporarily self-destruct
Charlie
11:01
Hey, I noticed that Seth Lugo isn't projected on the depth charts to make any starts this season. I find that hard to believe.
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
From Lugo's Rotoworld page: "Mets manager Mickey Callaway is on record as saying he plans to keep Lugo in the bullpen next year rather than move him back into the rotation."
Thanks for the Chat!
11:03
With the recent luxury tax rules, is the amount of "dead money" moving between teams increasing among top teams as a way to circumvent exceeding limits? Or another way to look at it, is actual payroll starting to far exceed luxury tax payroll? (teams like Dodgers seem adept at this)
Jeff Sullivan
11:05
If I'm thinking about this right, for every team paying more than its calculated CBT payroll, there'll be another team paying less
11:06
But just generally speaking, money is definitely more of a factor in trade talks than ever, because payroll is being treated as more important than ever. With limitations in place, and with those limitations being taken seriously as soft caps, it makes sense that trades will become about more than just player talent
Verde
11:07
A's can still afford both Edwin Jackson and Matt Wieters, yes?
Jeff Sullivan
11:07
Sure
mmddyyyy
11:07
If Ohtani asked for a trade, what would the Angels do?
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