Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 2/12/16
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Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Diamondbacks, Royals, Orioles
In the Orioles' case, I just can't help but love that bullpen
eva longoria
10:18
what is kevin kiermaier's offensive upside, have we seen who he is at the plate or is he poised to breakout?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
I don't think there's a realistic breakout in there. Don't think he has the strength
10:20
Let me amend that -- he has the strength, since even Brian Dozier has the strength, but I don't think Kiermaier makes enough consistent good contact
el crapo
10:20
Do you take the over on Tulo's Steamer Projections like the Fans do? Is he still a 130 wrc guy?
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
I'm more with Steamer than with the Fans. I think Tulo is done as the best shortstop in baseball
klenphak
10:20
who ends up better player? Maikel Franco or JP Crawford
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
Crawford
10:21
I like Franco's potential but I love me some Crawford
Andrew Friedman
10:23
Your grade on the Dodgers' offseason? And what's the trade value of Alex Guerrero? Not that I care, I'm Andrew F'ing Friedman, and I could kill you with my army of nerds.
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
B? And very low. The Dodgers didn't get themselves into anything damaging, and they got Maeda for some awful team-friendly terms. Curious to see what happens from here on out with Iwakuma's health; I loved him as a fit in LA
klenphak
10:25
For 2016 do Phillies have best 3B in division?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
Nope; Rendon
Kenneth
10:26
How big of an improvement would you see Lucroy as over Chirinos? If Chirinos stays healthy, he projects as about league average or maybe a little below. Lucroy only projects as a bit above average at this point. Is two years of a probable 1-2 win upgrade at about $5 million extra salary per year really worth giving up Tate, Matuella, and perhaps another piece? I do understand that those wins could be huge in the AL West, and would come at a very reasonable price in terms of dollars, but the trade cost still seems steep.
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
It depends on how much of a bounceback you expect from Lucroy, but unlike Chirinos, he's proven he can play almost every day. He's also somehow younger than Chirinos, and he improves the depth, since you could conceivably play them both at the same time and sit Moreland against lefties
baby bull
10:27
Who has more upside? Inciarte or Herrera
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
Herrera has more power potential if that's what you're looking for
Pretty Tony
10:30
Jeff, I have been very down on Nick Castellanos for the last few years. He's a poor defender, a terrible baserunner, and as of yet, does not hit for much power (and walks too little and Ks too much). He seems to have a 2-3 WAR ceiling, unless he drastically changes his plate discipline profile, starts hitting for ridiculous power, or magically becomes a better athlete. Should the Tigers trade him for a 3B who will help them in the short-term? Is that short-sighted?
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
I think Castellanos deserves another opportunity -- it's important for the Tigers to have players like him around, and he still hasn't turned 24, and he's shown some good batted-ball outcomes to this point that point to strength/power upside
10:32
I don't think he'll ever be a good defender anywhere, but he showed some discipline improvements down the stretch and the power is real. He won't be a star, but the Tigers will take a younger regular
Guest
10:32
What would be best for baseball's popularity among the youth; Harper or Stanton beating the single-season HR record, or the Cubs winning the World Series?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
I don't think many young people give a crap about the Cubs' World Series history
10:33
Let's go with a home-run chase. It would be almost impossible, of course, but the media would be all over it given that Harper and Stanton are presumably clean
Pitcher
10:34
MLB unveiled new protective headware for pitchers. Is their batted-ball evidence that comebackers are becoming increasingly dangerous? Will we see more/less/or about the same frequency of head injuries for pitchers?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
Should stay about the same. Maybe even a little bit lower, since it's harder than ever to make contact. The higher the league strikeout rate, the fewer balls in play there are. And it's not like batters are hitting a ton more liners back through the box than they used to
Joe Biden
10:36
Why evaluate players by wins above replacement rather than wins above average? It's not just because WAR sounds cooler than WAA I imagine
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
I'll copy and paste from the Baseball-Reference explainer http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml
"So why don't we compute Wins Above Average rather than Wins above Replacement? When computing the value of a major league player, average is a poor baseline for comparison. Average players are relatively rare and can be expensive to acquire. Average players don't make the league minimum. Plus, not all average performances are equal. A team would pay much more for 200 league average innings than for 50. When a star player is injured, they are rarely replaced by an average player -- usually their replacement is much worse."
Bork
10:37
On the topic of Sonny Gray - if the A's made him available, who would be first in line to try to acquire him?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Cubs?
burgerburper
10:38
In the National League which contender do you think will disappoint and which rebuilding team will surprise?
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
I could see the Cardinals having some trouble and the Rockies having a little success
J
10:39
How much do you value a low O-swing or high contact%? Brantley in paricular seems to thrive off that.
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
Very valuable. Brantley has uncommon bat-to-ball skills
Tf Fredrik
10:40
In your article recapping the 'aces' vote, I don't recall you giving your opinion on if you thought 20 aces was too many. Personally I feel that number is too high. Although in this pitching environment, it does seem there are quite a few pitchers with stuff, stats, & health to back up that number.
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
Off the top of my head I'd probably say there are around 15 aces so I don't think 20 is too many. You sort of have to mentally adjust for the era, but in any given year, the number should be in the 15 - 20 neighborhood, I'd think
Momo the Monkey
10:42
I need a 10-player, 3-team megadeal bc there's no baseball right now, and the Hot Stove couldn't heat day-old soup. What are the chances we see a major deal go down before Spring Training is in full swing?
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
Maybe a third team can get involved to send Lucroy from the Brewers to the Nationals
TF Fredrik
10:43
An ace is an ace no matter how other any aces are on their team. Agree/disagree?
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